MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Thursday, February 13, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

 

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Feb 13

For the week ended Feb 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg             total

in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat           643.1     44.0   21908.8   17908.8   5294.1    270.9

hrw           294.2      0.0    8169.1    5578.8   1908.1     80.9

srw            11.7     20.0    2202.3    2277.1    393.2     25.2

hrs           197.7     24.0    6308.8    5504.2   1576.6     83.0

white         132.4      0.0    4407.3    4128.8   1218.8     20.9

durum           7.0      0.0     821.2     419.9    197.4     61.0

corn            968.8      0.0   23759.4   32287.4  11869.4   1258.9

soybeans        644.8      6.3   32952.6   30369.1   5504.9    316.6

soymeal         234.2      0.0    7515.6    6909.7   3630.2     87.3

soyoil           39.1      0.0     641.5     405.9    298.6      0.5

upland cotton   350.9     57.3   13197.4   10878.8   7329.9   1142.9

pima cotton      10.9      0.0     440.5     467.2    227.8     35.0

sorghum          17.6      0.0    1173.2     476.6    284.0      0.0

barley            0.0      0.0      48.8      58.3     15.8     30.5

rice            136.0      0.0    2538.2    1907.5    793.2      0.0

 

WHEAT: 

General CommentsWheat markets were higher on chart considerations.  There were some ideas that the markets had been oversold in reaction to the USDA reports.  Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia.  Russia has offered lower prices but it has become difficult to buy from Russian producers who are holding out for higher internal prices.  The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia.  Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow.  It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter.  That means the producers will be much more interested in selling.  European prices have held better because of uncertain weather conditions in much of the continent, but overall have trended lower as well.  Conditions continue to improve in Australia and Argentina.  USDA made no real changes to its US supply and demand data and made very few production cuts in its monthly world data.  It made no cuts in most major exporting countries.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see light to moderate snow in the north late in the week.  Temperatures should be above normal in the west and below normal in the east.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March.  Support is at 538, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 464, 459, and 453 March, with resistance at 477, 481, and 490 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 528, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 538, 540, and 541 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was lower as selling developed in a delayed reaction to the USDA monthly supply and demand updates.  USDA increased ending stocks for Rice and Long Grain and really increased ending stocks for medium and short grain Rice.  The trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals still suggest higher prices are coming, even with the increased ending stocks estimates.  Some producers are selling the next crop locking in 1200 plus prices on the Board.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1328 and 1299 March.  Support is at 1335, 1326, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1357, 1374, and 1386 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn and Oats closed a little higher along with the outside markets.  The monthly reports showed static production and increased ethanol demand against reduced export demand.  Ending stocks were left unchanged.  World data showed reduced ending stocks.  Both markets have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US.  The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices.  However, the light test weights of the crop this year are forcing more bushels of Corn into feed rations and into ethanol processing.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 302, 298, and 295 March, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 312 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were higher.  USDA showed increased domestic crush and reduced ending stocks but also much larger production for Brazil.  The domestic data was price positive but was offset by the world data.  New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete.  However, USDA has kept away from showing how much buying is anticipated and news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast.  China is now reporting fewer new cases of the virus by the day so hopes are around tthat the country will keep to its economic commitments.  Factories are now open and people are working again.  Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina is expected to get rains in the near term.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 908 and 912 March.  Support is at 878, 876, and 869 March, and resistance is at 903, 910, and 913 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 305.00 and 311.00 March   Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3170, 3190, and 3210 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was a little higher along with the price action in the outside markets.  A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive.  Farmers are not selling.  Palm Oil was a little lower on selling from speculators.  Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.  Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 461.00, 457.00, and 448.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2670, 2580, and 2530 April, with resistance at 2750, 2800, and 2890 April.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Snow today, then drier weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+48 Mar

+155 Mar

+100 Mar

+55 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+55 Mar

+105 Mar

+50 Mar

April

+55 May

+105 May

+45 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11

By MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Feb. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, February 11.

Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price     Basis    Contract     Change

*Par Region         429.56    -30.24    March 2020  dn  2.20

Track Thunder Bay   469.40     10.00    March 2020  dn  0.40

Track Vancouver     480.40     21.00    March 2020  dn  0.40

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 13

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           682.50     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           677.50     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   652.50     -22.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   637.50     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   630.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           685.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           680.00     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   655.00     -22.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   640.00     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Aug/Sep   632.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           685.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           680.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   T raded

Feb           2,700.00   -80.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           200.00     -03.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=M200.1390)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 13

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 265,381 lots, or 11.10 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  3,465  3,487  3,421  3,445   3,422   3,464   42      110     1,269

May-20  4,166  4,238  4,138  4,149   4,157   4,188   31  245,247   111,932

Jul-20  4,167  4,190  4,140  4,140   4,133   4,168   35        5        26

Sep-20  4,040  4,150  4,040  4,087   4,064   4,109   45   19,060    21,430

Nov-20  3,940  3,993  3,925  3,961   3,920   3,961   41       70       269

Jan-21  3,965  4,022  3,959  3,977   3,953   3,998   45      889     1,090

Corn

Turnover: 217,519 lots, or 4.21 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  1,880  1,890  1,879  1,886   1,895   1,882  -13    6,568    26,933

May-20  1,924  1,928  1,921  1,926   1,925   1,925    0  147,053   586,741

Jul-20  1,940  1,948  1,940  1,945   1,942   1,944    2   11,051    43,033

Sep-20  1,970  1,973  1,968  1,972   1,970   1,971    1   48,360   233,446

Nov-20  1,984  1,990  1,984  1,990   1,987   1,987    0      918     2,024

Jan-21  1,997  2,000  1,994  1,999   1,996   1,997    1    3,569     3,827

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,283,983 lots, or 34.57 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  2,598  2,644  2,598  2,639   2,598   2,614   16    8,543     14,347

May-20  2,644  2,688  2,643  2,684   2,650   2,670   20  877,635  1,319,851

Jul-20  2,666  2,716  2,666  2,715   2,682   2,702   20   65,292     61,030

Aug-20  2,713  2,755  2,713  2,755   2,715   2,731   16    7,428      2,518

Sep-20  2,731  2,767  2,728  2,765   2,735   2,750   15  307,717  1,140,207

Nov-20  2,760  2,792  2,759  2,792   2,761   2,773   12   11,648      1,957

Dec-20  2,792  2,815  2,791  2,812   2,783   2,801   18       32        273

Jan-21  2,789  2,818  2,786  2,815   2,789   2,803   14    5,688     18,401

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,618,165 lots, or 90.43 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

Settle                          Interest

Feb-20  –          –      –  6,168   6,168   6,168    0          0         0

Mar-20  5,960  6,010  5,910  5,958   6,040   5,956  -84         70       111

Apr-20  5,770  5,798  5,770  5,798   5,854   5,784  -70          6         4

May-20  5,630  5,652  5,522  5,578   5,620   5,592  -28  1,492,111   416,373

Jun-20  5,486  5,524  5,486  5,514   5,502   5,498   -4          5         5

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,480   5,480   5,480    0          0       304

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,588   5,592   5,588   -4          0         6

Sep-20  5,550  5,580  5,478  5,524   5,546   5,534  -12    124,238    89,894

Oct-20  –          –      –  5,496   5,496   5,496    0          0         3

Nov-20  5,544  5,544  5,544  5,544   5,490   5,544   54          1         6

Dec-20  5,480  5,584  5,480  5,546   5,542   5,540   -2          6       159

Jan-21  5,444  5,466  5,388  5,430   5,426   5,424   -2      1,728     3,031

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 614,522 lots, or 37.01 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  5,804  5,974  5,800  5,818   5,950   5,846  -104        8        16

May-20  6,074  6,076  5,942  5,974   6,048   6,000   -48  516,731   378,744

Jul-20  6,076  6,076  6,076  6,076   6,054   6,076    22        1       416

Aug-20  –          –      –  6,086   6,086   6,086     0        0         2

Sep-20  6,180  6,190  6,078  6,114   6,152   6,138   -14   96,414   177,258

Nov-20  6,196  6,204  6,196  6,204   6,284   6,198   -86        6       210

Dec-20  6,262  6,262  6,248  6,248   6,284   6,254   -30        2         7

Jan-21  6,270  6,308  6,206  6,244   6,266   6,274     8    1,360     8,092

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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