MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Friday, February 14, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT: 

General CommentsWheat markets were lower on price pressure from the world market.  Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia.  Russia has offered lower prices but it has become difficult to buy from Russian producers who are holding out for higher internal prices.  The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia.  Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow.  It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter.  That means the producers will be much more interested in selling.  European prices have held better because of uncertain weather conditions in much of the continent, but overall have trended lower as well.  Conditions continue to improve in Australia and Argentina.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see light to moderate snow.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March.  Support is at 538, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 463, 459, and 453 March, with resistance at 469, 477, and 481 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March.  Support is at 526, 520, and 517 March, and resistance is at 532, 538, and 540 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was lower on follow through selling.  The trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals still suggest higher prices are coming, even with the increased ending stocks estimates.  Some producers are selling the next crop locking in 1200 plus prices on the Board.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  The export sales report today was considered very strong.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1328 and 1299 March.  Support is at 1316, 1308, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1335, 1343, and 1350 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn and Oats closed a little lower.  Corn have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US.  The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices.  However, the light test weights of the crop this year are forcing more bushels of Corn into feed rations and into ethanol processing.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 286, 284, and 281 March.  Support is at 293, 288, and 283 March, and resistance is at 302, 307, and 310 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was lower.   New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete.  However, USDA has kept away from showing how much buying is anticipated and news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast.  China is now reporting fewer new cases of the virus by the day so hopes are around that the country will keep to its economic commitments.  That changed yesterday as China changed reporting requirements and reports of new cases of the virus took a big jump.  Deaths from the virus also increased.  Factories are now open and people are working again.  Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina is expected to get rains in the near term.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 908 and 917 March.  Support is at 889, 878, and 8676 March, and resistance is at 902, 910, and 913 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 305.00 and 311.00 March   Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was mixed.  A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive.  Farmers are not selling.  Palm Oil was higher after holding supportareas on the daily charts.  Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.  Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 461.00, 457.00, and 448.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2580, 2530, and 2480 April, with resistance at 2710, 2750, and 2800 April.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Snow today, then drier weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+48 Mar

+155 Mar

+100 Mar

+57 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+54 Mar

+105 Mar

+57 Mar

April

+54 May

+105 May

+49 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11

By MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Feb. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, February 11.

Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price     Basis    Contract     Change

*Par Region         429.56    -30.24    March 2020  dn  2.20

Track Thunder Bay   469.40     10.00    March 2020  dn  0.40

Track Vancouver     480.40     21.00    March 2020  dn  0.40

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 14

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           680.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           680.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   655.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   640.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   650.00     +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           682.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           682.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   657.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   642.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Aug/Sep   652.50     +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           685.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           680.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   T raded

Feb           2,700.00     0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           200.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=M200.1350)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 14

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 93,351 lots, or 3.86 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.     Vol      Open

Settle                       Interest

Mar-20  3,425  3,487  3,425  3,467   3,464   3,448  -16      54     1,265

May-20  4,149  4,157  4,121  4,139   4,188   4,139  -49  85,899   112,661

Jul-20  –          –      –  4,151   4,168   4,151  -17       0        26

Sep-20  4,120  4,120  4,072  4,078   4,109   4,083  -26   7,233    20,732

Nov-20  3,960  3,960  3,950  3,958   3,961   3,956   -5       4       268

Jan-21  3,977  3,998  3,971  3,980   3,998   3,984  -14     161     1,135

Corn

Turnover: 374,796 lots, or 7.23 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  1,882  1,894  1,874  1,887   1,882   1,877   -5   14,377    14,978

May-20  1,924  1,927  1,916  1,919   1,925   1,919   -6  271,673   580,101

Jul-20  1,945  1,945  1,937  1,940   1,944   1,940   -4   13,050    45,340

Sep-20  1,970  1,971  1,962  1,967   1,971   1,966   -5   69,016   226,463

Nov-20  1,986  1,987  1,980  1,981   1,987   1,982   -5    2,360     2,997

Jan-21  1,998  1,998  1,991  1,995   1,997   1,994   -3    4,320     4,943

Soymeal

Turnover: 904,446 lots, or 24.38 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  2,640  2,653  2,631  2,642   2,614   2,643   29    5,913     12,442

May-20  2,687  2,689  2,657  2,668   2,670   2,671    1  603,097  1,305,205

Jul-20  2,715  2,718  2,689  2,697   2,702   2,702    0   36,801     64,292

Aug-20  2,742  2,746  2,724  2,737   2,731   2,734    3    1,814      2,447

Sep-20  2,763  2,767  2,742  2,747   2,750   2,751    1  248,563  1,164,028

Nov-20  2,786  2,787  2,767  2,772   2,773   2,776    3    4,482      1,801

Dec-20  2,804  2,810  2,795  2,798   2,801   2,800   -1       28        288

Jan-21  2,817  2,818  2,799  2,801   2,803   2,805    2    3,748    18,166

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,480,788 lots, or 81.65 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.        Vol      Open

Settle                           Interest

Feb-20  –          –      –  6,182   6,168   6,182    14          0         0

Mar-20  5,960  5,960  5,850  5,902   5,956   5,888   -68         10       109

Apr-20  5,758  5,758  5,758  5,758   5,784   5,758   -26          1         3

May-20  5,576  5,576  5,474  5,508   5,592   5,516   -76  1,358,460   435,051

Jun-20  –          –      –  5,492   5,498   5,492    -6          0         5

Jul-20  5,418  5,418  5,418  5,418   5,480   5,418   -62          1       304

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,514   5,588   5,514   -74          0         6

Sep-20  5,504  5,520  5,434  5,436   5,534   5,470   -64    120,334   102,070

Oct-20  –          –      –  5,496   5,496   5,496     0          0         3

Nov-20  5,298  5,454  5,298  5,454   5,544   5,376  -168          2         5

Dec-20  –          –      –  5,522   5,540   5,522   -18          0       159

Jan-21  5,420  5,442  5,376  5,376   5,424   5,410   -14      1,980     3,069

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 463,035 lots, or 27.55 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  5,940  5,954  5,854  5,854   5,846   5,920   74        4        16

May-20  5,968  5,974  5,900  5,904   6,000   5,926  -74  390,280   381,351

Jul-20  5,988  5,988  5,960  5,960   6,076   5,978  -98        3       418

Aug-20  6,056  6,056  6,056  6,056   6,086   6,056  -30        2         2

Sep-20  6,100  6,114  6,034  6,038   6,138   6,064  -74   71,595   176,575

Nov-20  6,142  6,148  6,142  6,148   6,198   6,144  -54        5       215

Dec-20  6,216  6,216  6,176  6,176   6,254   6,196  -58        2         8

Jan-21  6,228  6,240  6,162  6,162   6,274   6,186  -88    1,144     8,227

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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