MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

DJ China to Grant Tariff Exemptions on US Farm Products — Market Talk

09:11 ET – Some 697 US products, including farm goods, will be exempted from tariffs beginning March 2, according to Chinese officials. That is when importers will be allowed to apply for exemptions. This leaves the US market open for new reports of big Chinese purchases from the USDA, as this move suggests that China will act to reach the $36.5B in US agricultural purchases, as promised by phase one of the US-China trade deal. China is expected to be particularly interested in hog and soybean trading opportunities. “This week will be closely watched for any signs of China purchasing any U.S. products,” says Allendale. Overnight, wheat and corn futures traded higher, while soybeans were slightly lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com, @kirkmaltais)

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were lower for the week with Chicago SRW and Chicago HRW taking the brunt of the down move and Minneapolis Spring markets also lower.  The weekly charts show that tops have been established but that futures markets have come close to initial swing targets for the move lower.  The move lower comes amid weaker world prices for Wheat.  Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales.  East and West Europe have weaker prices as well.  The good news is that sales of US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace.  So, the US is participating in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe.  The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently.  The good US Sales should help to keep future prices from falling too much and initial chart indications suggest that some sideways trading is possible now.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the far south today.  Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March.  Support is at 538, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 463, 459, and 453 March, with resistance at 471, 477, and 481 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March.  Support is at 520, 517, and 512 March, and resistance is at 532, 538, and 540 March.

 

DJ Wheat Futures Up as Australian Wheat Crop Estimate Falls — Market Talk

08:42 ET – A decline in the expected Australian wheat crop has US wheat futures on the CBOT up 2.1% in pre-market trading. The country’s crop agency ABARES estimates that the 2019 wheat crop will total 15.2 million metric tons, down from 15.85 million tons — which would be the smallest crop since 2008. Widespread brushfires in Australia have stifled harvesting of the grain crop this year. Meanwhile, corn futures are up 0.5% and soybeans are down 0.2% pre-market. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001602                                                              Open Interest is   634,249

: Positions                                                                               :

:  113,951   100,167   240,654    74,337   177,706   169,842    57,489   598,784   576,015:   35,465    58,234

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:     -15,889)         :

:   -1,983     5,884   -12,916     4,069    -6,505    -4,522    -4,018   -15,352   -17,555:     -537     1,666

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     18.0      15.8      37.9      11.7      28.0      26.8       9.1      94.4      90.8:      5.6       9.2

: Total Traders:   414          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      103       123       141        78       121        53        23       320       333:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #001612                                                              Open Interest is   318,010

: Positions                                                                               :

:   49,182    58,413    88,663    64,860   127,704    86,656    21,126   289,360   295,906:   28,650    22,104

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:     -13,628)         :

:      762      -878   -11,990    -2,200       526      -903      -591   -14,330   -12,934:      702      -695

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.5      18.4      27.9      20.4      40.2      27.2       6.6      91.0      93.0:      9.0       7.0

: Total Traders:   285          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       76        55        92        88        86        34        16       246       210:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                     :

CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    72,989                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   38,435    40,401     2,182         0         6     4,100    10,954     3,747     6,466     1,295     4,052 :

: Changes from:     February 4, 2020                                                                           :

:    2,980     1,966       231         0        -4       211     2,436      -591       203      -142       567 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     52.7      55.4       3.0       0.0       0.0       5.6      15.0       5.1       8.9       1.8       5.6 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    89                     :

:       44        37         .         0         .         8         9         6         9         6        11 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   50 Metric Tons                                            :

CFTC Code #00160F                                                    Open Interest is    23,513                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    7,177    20,321     4,225       557     1,454     7,926         0       268     1,441         0       715 :

: Changes from:     February 4, 2020                                                                           :

:     -643     1,159     1,000       104      -152       611         0        -3        49      -200       138 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     30.5      86.4      18.0       2.4       6.2      33.7       0.0       1.1       6.1       0.0       3.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    30                     :

:       12        19         .         .         .         5         0         .         .         0         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was lower and the weekly charts show that futures made an outside week down for a key reversal to the downside.  It was a very bad move for a market that still has mostly bullish fundamentals.  Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.  Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1299 March.  Support is at 1316, 1308, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1343, 1350, and 1357 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            :

CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    15,141                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    4,859     9,632        92         0         0     5,796     1,061         0       690     1,278     1,283 :

: Changes from:     February 4, 2020                                                                           :

:      493       965        -1         0         0       528        28       -10       110       146       204 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     32.1      63.6       0.6       0.0       0.0      38.3       7.0       0.0       4.6       8.4       8.5 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    67                     :

:       17        17         .         0         0        21         .         0         8         9        11 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn moved a little lower last week.  Oats were lower for most of the week and closed near the weekly lows.  The main driver was the Coronavirus that has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.  Feed demand is improved.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 375, 371, and 368 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 286, 284, and 281 March.  Support is at 293, 288, and 283 March, and resistance is at 298, 302, and 307 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #002602                                                              Open Interest is 1,868,556

: Positions                                                                               :

:  135,257   252,444   481,073   511,991   760,404   442,940   161,439 1,571,261 1,655,359:  297,295   213,196

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:       4,261)         :

:   -3,814    10,947     2,842     7,478    -9,240    -6,601    -4,054       -94       495:    4,355     3,766

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:      7.2      13.5      25.7      27.4      40.7      23.7       8.6      84.1      88.6:     15.9      11.4

: Total Traders:   790          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      142       140       192       363       354        53        31       663       629:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   :

CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is     5,890                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    1,557     4,670       113         0         0     1,301        61         0     1,383         1       131 :

: Changes from:     February 4, 2020                                                                           :

:      154       175         0         0         0        19       -17         0         2       -10         9 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     26.4      79.3       1.9       0.0       0.0      22.1       1.0       0.0      23.5       0.0       2.2 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    29                     :

:        9        14         .         0         0         6         .         0         5         .         . :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal both closed a little higher.  The price action was especially strong in Soybeans and came on the back of potentially encouraging demand news.  The news that the Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was scheduled to get started this week was a little bullish for the markets.  China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country.  There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting this week.  A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 908 and 917 March.  Support is at 889, 878, and 876 March, and resistance is at 900, 903, and 910 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed   Support is at 287.00, 286.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 292.00, 295.00, and 296.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #005602                                                              Open Interest is 1,048,773

: Positions                                                                               :

:   66,436   167,625   312,687   375,626   415,391   215,309    77,615   970,058   973,318:   78,715    75,455

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:      28,350)         :

:    4,720    10,208     8,423    17,379     3,007    -8,606     6,907    21,917    28,546:    6,433      -196

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:      6.3      16.0      29.8      35.8      39.6      20.5       7.4      92.5      92.8:      7.5       7.2

: Total Traders:   600          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      157       126       201       202       203        51        26       506       480:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020  

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #007601                                                              Open Interest is   558,381

: Positions                                                                               :

:   68,347    38,943   147,140   158,695   302,351   145,720    40,514   519,902   528,948:   38,479    29,432

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:     -15,147)         :

:   -6,871     5,294   -12,855    10,444    -2,284    -8,848    -4,147   -18,130   -13,993:    2,984    -1,154

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     12.2       7.0      26.4      28.4      54.1      26.1       7.3      93.1      94.7:      6.9       5.3

: Total Traders:   329          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       86        62       111        91        86        41        22       278       243:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE

CFTC Code #026603                                                              Open Interest is   535,353

: Positions                                                                               :

:   46,420   111,521   116,970   192,192   230,565   126,828    42,433   482,409   501,488:   52,943    33,865

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:       4,700)         :

:    3,386     5,194     2,843     2,529    -8,352    -3,280     5,192     5,478     4,877:     -778      -177

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:      8.7      20.8      21.8      35.9      43.1      23.7       7.9      90.1      93.7:      9.9       6.3

: Total Traders:   335          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       61        94        97       108        90        34        19       273       248:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was lower on Friday.  Weaker oils in outside markets were negative.  Palm Oil was higher after holding support areas on the daily charts.  Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.  Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2670, 2760, and 2860 May.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (20 Metric Tonnes)                                                                 :

CFTC Code #135731                                                    Open Interest is   200,219                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:  163,396    96,108     5,618     1,155       720     1,062    67,398     5,256     7,726    12,713    15,322 :

: Changes from:     February 4, 2020                                                                           :

:   -3,648   -15,185        65       -56        60    -1,062     8,924    -2,467      -922       624       248 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     81.6      48.0       2.8       0.6       0.4       0.5      33.7       2.6       3.9       6.3       7.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   221                     :

:       38        50         6         .         .         5        59         9        33        47        20 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+48 Mar

+155 Mar

+100 Mar

+57 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+54 Mar

+105 Mar

+57 Mar

April

+54 May

+105 May

+49 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 14

By MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Feb. 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, February 14.

Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price     Basis    Contract     Change

*Par Region         430.56    -30.24    March 2020  up  0.40

Track Thunder Bay   469.50     10.00    March 2020  dn  4.30

Track Vancouver     480.50     21.00    March 2020  dn  4.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 18

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           685.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           682.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   662.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   640.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   632.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           687.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Mar           685.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun   665.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   642.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   635.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           687.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           677.50     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           2,750.00   -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Feb           200.00     -02.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.1530)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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