MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for February USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report

The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.

Average            Range

of estimates      of estimates

On-feed February 1            102.3            101.8- 103.0

Placed in January             101.5             97.8- 103.5

Marketed in January           101.0             97.6- 101.6

Analyst                      On-Feed        Placements    Marketed

Feb. 1         in Jan        in Jan

Allegiant Commodity Group    102.1           100.2         101.1

Allendale Inc.               103.0           101.6          97.6

HedgersEdge                  102.3           101.6         100.5

Linn Group                   101.8            97.8         100.8

Livestock Mktg Info Ctr      102.7           103.5         101.0

NFC Markets                  102.3           101.6         101.6

Texas A&M Extension          102.4           102.0         101.3

U.S. Commodities             102.2           102.2         101.0

 

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 18

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND

WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.

NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 13, 2020

— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

CURRENT     PREVIOUS

———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

GRAIN      02/13/2020  02/06/2020  02/14/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY            144       8,830           0       28,432        6,852

CORN          795,228     788,549     941,811   12,308,616   24,190,837

FLAXSEED            0          24           0          520          242

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0         100           0        2,766        1,993

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM        74,141      77,577     118,255    1,300,785      799,017

SOYBEANS      992,294     640,620   1,083,567   28,277,053   23,812,175

SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0

WHEAT         501,990     567,349     363,523   17,730,804   15,753,830

Total       2,363,797   2,083,049   2,507,156   59,648,976   64,564,946

————————————————————————-

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Feb 19

MS_GR210

Minneapolis, MN              WED FEBRUARY 19, 2020       USDA MARKET NEWS

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO

REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING JANUARY 2020

————————————————————————

Jan-20          Dec-19    Year to Date

CANADA             Rail Cars Metric Tons     Metric Tons     Metric Tons

BARLEY                    18       1,796               0           1,796

BARLEY MALTING            53       5,289             798           5,289

CORN WHITE                 0           0               0               0

CORN YELLOW                0           0               0               0

RYE                        0           0               0               0

FLAXSEED                   0           0               0               0

WHEAT DU                   4         399               0             399

WHEAT HDWH                 0           0               0               0

WHEAT HRS                 15       1,498           3,394           1,498

WHEAT HRW                  0           0               0               0

WHEAT SRW                  0           0               0               0

WHEAT MIXED                0           0               0               0

MEXICO

BARLEY                     0           0               0               0

BARLEY MALTING             0           0               0               0

CORN WHITE                31       3,094           2,595           3,094

CORN YELLOW            4,457     444,768         615,608         444,768

CORN MIXED                 0           0               0               0

FLAXSEED                   1         100             200             100

OATS                       7         700             898             700

SORGHUM                  273      27,243          25,747          27,243

SOYBEANS               2,399     239,394         195,194         239,394

SUNFLOWER                  0           0               0               0

WHEAT HDWH                 0           0               0               0

WHEAT HRS                 42       4,192           8,882           4,192

WHEAT HRW              1,621     161,764         186,410         161,764

WHEAT SRW                 74       7,384          21,256           7,384

WHEAT SWH                  0           0             499               0

WHEAT UNCL                 0           0               0               0

————————————————————————-

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND

WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.

NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)

Year to Date is January to current or end of year

Wheat

DU=Durum

HDWH= Hard White

HRS=Hard Red Spring

HRW=Hard Red Winter

SRW=Soft Red Winter

SWH=Soft White

UNCL=Unclassed

Source:  USDA, FGIS

USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE

Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt

http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were sharply higher on news that ABARES in Australia had dramatically cut production estimates for the country.  It estimated production between 15 and 17 million tons and this is lower than other trade estimates.  The recent move lower comes amid weaker world prices for Wheat even with the Australian problems.  Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales.  East and West Europe have weaker prices as well.  The good news is that sales of US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace.  So, the US is participating in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe.  The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices until yesterday.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the far south today.  Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 564, 555, and 549 March, with resistance at 571, 576, and 579 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 488 and 506 March.  Support is at 480, 477, and 471 March, with resistance at 490, 496, and 500 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 545 and 560 March.  Support is at 537, 531, and 529 March, and resistance is at 541, 543, and 549 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was higher in recovery trading.  Futures closed near the highs of the day and went a long way to negating the down side indications the market left last week.  The futures market suggests that the March to May time frame could be the tight time for US and western Rice.  Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 March.  Support is at 1316, 1308, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1350, 1357, and 1374 March.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 19

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

—–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value  Rough      Rough

($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            15.14         9.56       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.82        10.18       0.00

Brokens                9.60         —-       —-

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn moved higher yesterday with much of the rally in sympathy with Wheat.  There was no reason for Corn to rally as much as it did on its own, but futures did hold chart support and are now back at resistance areas.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.  Feed demand is improved.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 298, 293, and 288 March, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 312 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybean Meal closed a little higher, but Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little lower.  The price action was disappointing given that China said it will make tariff wavers available to its domestic industry for the purchase of US Soybeans.  There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting at the end of this month when the waivers are scheduled to take effect.  A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 908 and 917 March.  Support is at 889, 878, and 876 March, and resistance is at 900, 903, and 910 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed   Support is at 287.00, 286.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

 

Alerts History

  • 18-Feb-2020 11:00:07 AM – U.S. JANUARY SOYBEAN CRUSH AT RECORD-HIGH 176.940 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
  • 18-Feb-2020 11:00:07 AM – U.S. JANUARY SOYOIL STOCKS 2.013 BILLION LBS – NOPA
  • 18-Feb-2020 11:00:07 AM – U.S. JANUARY SOYMEAL EXPORTS 931,061 TONS – NOPA

NOPA January soybean crush hits record-high 176.940 million bushels – Reuters News

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was higher.  Weaker oils in outside markets were negative, but the strong action of the US Dollar was positive as was news that China will relax tariffs at the end of the month.  Palm Oil was a little lower on ideas of weaker demand.  Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.  Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2670, 2760, and 2860 May.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+53 Mar

+155 Mar

+100 Mar

+53 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+56 Mar

+105 Mar

+57 Mar

April

+54 May

+105 May

+48 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 18

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          426.26    -33.24    Mar 2020     dn 4.10

Basis: Thunder Bay   472.30     10.00    Mar 2020     up 2.80

Basis: Vancouver     483.30     21.00    Mar 2020     up 2.80

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 19

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           665.00     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           662.50        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       647.50        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   630.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   622.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           667.50     -20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           665.00        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       650.00        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   632.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Aug/Sep   625.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           675.00        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           660.00        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   T raded

Mar           2,690.00      n/a      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           197.00        n/a      Unquoted   –        –

($1=M200.1600)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 19

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 118,427 lots, or 4.93 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  3,531  3,564  3,516  3,541   3,541   3,535   -6       28     1,267

May-20  4,153  4,197  4,140  4,191   4,149   4,170   21  110,591   122,901

Jul-20  4,179  4,185  4,155  4,161   4,182   4,170  -12       22        50

Sep-20  4,080  4,122  4,075  4,122   4,084   4,097   13    7,534    21,490

Nov-20  3,975  4,002  3,975  3,989   3,971   3,989   18       11       272

Jan-21  3,990  4,034  3,990  4,032   3,994   4,007   13      241     1,287

Corn

Turnover: 378,693 lots, or 7.28 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  1,874  1,900  1,871  1,876   1,876   1,879    3    2,135    10,983

May-20  1,905  1,913  1,900  1,910   1,915   1,908   -7  272,527   602,931

Jul-20  1,934  1,937  1,928  1,937   1,940   1,934   -6   20,182    52,285

Sep-20  1,957  1,964  1,954  1,959   1,966   1,959   -7   78,910   276,112

Nov-20  1,977  1,980  1,973  1,976   1,985   1,976   -9      452     3,520

Jan-21  1,991  1,994  1,985  1,989   1,995   1,990   -5    4,487     7,265

Soymeal

Turnover: 647,808 lots, or 17.41 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  2,622  2,637  2,618  2,636   2,629   2,629    0    1,246      8,605

May-20  2,658  2,666  2,645  2,660   2,660   2,657   -3  414,002  1,318,124

Jul-20  2,682  2,700  2,679  2,695   2,690   2,691    1   41,378     75,322

Aug-20  2,732  2,736  2,718  2,733   2,729   2,727   -2      895      2,936

Sep-20  2,746  2,756  2,736  2,751   2,747   2,747    0  181,874  1,236,248

Nov-20  2,773  2,781  2,762  2,776   2,773   2,773    0    4,216      2,067

Dec-20  2,809  2,809  2,792  2,804   2,802   2,802    0       47        290

Jan-21  2,808  2,814  2,797  2,809   2,806   2,805   -1    4,150     23,225

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,463,977 lots, or 80.26 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.        Vol      Open

Settle                           Interest

Mar-20  5,632  5,668  5,510  5,510   5,798   5,574  -224         96        80

Apr-20  –          –      –  5,692   5,776   5,692   -84          0         3

May-20  5,522  5,558  5,432  5,444   5,548   5,482   -66  1,365,090   452,678

Jun-20  5,414  5,414  5,414  5,414   5,490   5,414   -76          1         6

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,424   5,424   5,424     0          0       304

Aug-20  5,482  5,482  5,446  5,450   5,506   5,456   -50          4         6

Sep-20  5,496  5,528  5,424  5,432   5,512   5,470   -42     97,004   112,262

Oct-20  –          –      –  5,490   5,532   5,490   -42          0         3

Nov-20  –          –      –  5,430   5,448   5,430   -18          0         5

Dec-20  5,564  5,566  5,486  5,486   5,608   5,526   -82          7       159

Jan-21  5,436  5,454  5,366  5,376   5,428   5,398   -30      1,775     4,115

Feb-21  –          –      –  5,412   5,412   5,412     0          0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 629,945 lots, or 37.21 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  5,652  5,926  5,652  5,926   5,744   5,798   54       33         9

May-20  5,864  5,922  5,852  5,868   5,908   5,882  -26  526,223   388,944

Jul-20  5,914  5,960  5,912  5,912   5,940   5,930  -10       37       420

Aug-20  6,020  6,020  5,964  5,964   6,020   5,992  -28        2         4

Sep-20  6,024  6,062  5,986  6,000   6,060   6,022  -38  101,715   191,509

Nov-20  6,066  6,066  6,066  6,066   6,144   6,066  -78        6       213

Dec-20  –          –      –  6,118   6,196   6,118  -78        0         8

Jan-21  6,156  6,202  6,126  6,132   6,208   6,178  -30    1,929    10,232

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (312) 264-4364 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

Posted in

Tagged keywords...