MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Friday, February 21, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for February USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report

The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.

Average            Range

of estimates      of estimates

On-feed February 1            102.3            101.8- 103.0

Placed in January             101.5             97.8- 103.5

Marketed in January           101.0             97.6- 101.6

Analyst                      On-Feed        Placements    Marketed

Feb. 1         in Jan        in Jan

Allegiant Commodity Group    102.1           100.2         101.1

Allendale Inc.               103.0           101.6          97.6

HedgersEdge                  102.3           101.6         100.5

Linn Group                   101.8            97.8         100.8

Livestock Mktg Info Ctr      102.7           103.5         101.0

NFC Markets                  102.3           101.6         101.6

Texas A&M Extension          102.4           102.0         101.3

U.S. Commodities             102.2           102.2         101.0

 

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Feb 21

For the week ended Feb 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg             total

in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat          346.3     60.1   22255.1   21483.7   5045.0    331.0

hrw          166.1      6.2    8335.2    7290.3   1852.1     87.1

srw           16.1     31.5    2218.4    2792.8    364.1     56.7

hrs           78.4     22.4    6387.3    6127.3   1488.5    105.4

white         78.7      0.0    4486.0    4796.2   1191.9     20.9

durum          7.0      0.0     828.2     477.0    148.4     61.0

corn          1249.2      1.0   25008.5   38316.0  12357.3   1259.9

soybeans       494.3      3.4   33446.9   36762.8   5041.4    319.9

soymeal        169.4      0.0    7685.1    8378.5   3562.5     87.3

soyoil          42.0      0.0     683.4     498.1    253.0      0.5

upland cotto   235.3    141.2   13432.7   11855.9   7189.5   1284.1

pima cotton      9.5      0.0     450.0     509.4    227.1     35.3

sorghum         49.6     33.0    1222.7     728.6    248.3     33.0

barley           0.1      0.0      48.9      58.2     15.5     30.5

rice           106.6      0.0    2644.8    2213.6    791.9      0.0

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were a little lower in consolidation trading.  There was not a whole lot of buzz in the Wheat pit yesterday as most of the news seemed to affect other markets more.  The strong US Dollar against world currencies was negative for demand ideas that are already trending lower due to weaker prices in Russia and Europe.  Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales.  East and West Europe have weaker prices as well.  Sales of US Wheat continue to move along at a good pace.  The US is participating in the world market even with all of the competition from Russia and also Europe.  The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the far south today.  Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 574 March.  Support is at 555, 553, and 549 March, with resistance at 567, 571, and 576 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 488 and 506 March.  Support is at 471, 463, and 459 March, with resistance at 487, 490, and 496 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 545 and 560 March.  Support is at 529, 525, and 520 March, and resistance is at 538, 541, and 543 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was little changed after an uneventful session.  USDA forecast the [planted Rice area at 3.1 million acres which is roughly in line with trade expectations.  It showed a tight supply and demand scenario for this year but this was also expected.  The futures market suggests that the March to May time frame could be the tight time for US and western Rice.  Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 March.  Support is at 1324, 1316, and 1308 March, with resistance at 1352, 1357, and 1374 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn was lower yesterday in consolidation trading.  Corn continues to take its cues from Wheat and Soybeans price action as there is very little going on for Corn.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.  Feed demand is improved.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 376, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 298, 293, and 288 March, and resistance is at 301, 305, and 307 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were a little lower.  Talk of Chinese inquiry into the price and availability of US Soybeans was still around, but the US Dollar moved sharply higher against the Real of Brazil yesterday and made Brazil Soybeans the product of choice for any international buyer.  China said it will make tariff wavers available to its domestic industry for the purchase of US Soybeans.  There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting at the end of this month when the waivers are scheduled to take effect, but US Dollar strength will make that hard.  A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina has been dry but is about to get some very timely rains.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 889, 885, and 878 March, and resistance is at 900, 903, and 910 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed   Support is at 291.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2910 and 2870 March.  Support is at 2980, 2930, and 2870 March, with resistance at 3050, 3100, and 3170 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was mostly lower in range trading.  Nearby months were unchanged to higher.  The strong action of the US Dollar was a little supportive.  Palm Oil was lower on ideas of weaker demand.  Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries.  Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.  Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.

Overnight News:    SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports now total 744,320 tons this month, from 765,601 tons last month.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2670, 2760, and 2860 May.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+50 Mar

+155 Mar

+100 Mar

+57 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+54 Mar

+105 Mar

+60 Mar

April

+54 May

+105 May

+46 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 20

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          425.66    -33.64    Mar 2020     dn 3.10

Basis: Thunder Bay   475.00      7.00    Mar 2020     up 0.10

Basis: Vancouver     486.00     18.00    Mar 2020     up 0.10

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 21

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           667.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           665.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       642.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   635.00     +17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   627.50     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           670.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           667.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       645.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   637.50     +17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Aug/Sep   630.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           682.50     +17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           655.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   T raded

Mar           2,700.00     0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           195.00     +03.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=M200.1930)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 21

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 118,567 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  3,555  3,581  3,552  3,552   3,553   3,563   10      336       887

May-20  4,100  4,137  4,085  4,136   4,137   4,110  -27  110,547   121,180

Jul-20  4,122  4,140  4,113  4,121   4,129   4,123   -6        9        51

Sep-20  4,056  4,086  4,040  4,083   4,077   4,059  -18    7,432    21,162

Nov-20  3,967  3,990  3,967  3,990   3,993   3,984   -9        9       264

Jan-21  3,980  4,000  3,963  4,000   3,987   3,981   -6      234     1,332

Corn

Turnover: 264,160 lots, or 5.08 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  1,876  1,882  1,868  1,879   1,875   1,874   -1    1,119     9,978

May-20  1,904  1,913  1,901  1,912   1,907   1,908    1  184,719   612,412

Jul-20  1,929  1,939  1,928  1,937   1,933   1,935    2   10,904    55,906

Sep-20  1,952  1,962  1,950  1,961   1,956   1,958    2   64,007   299,806

Nov-20  1,973  1,980  1,972  1,978   1,974   1,978    4    1,326     4,280

Jan-21  1,985  1,993  1,984  1,990   1,987   1,990    3    2,085     8,055

Soymeal

Turnover: 714,457 lots, or 19.25 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  2,641  2,652  2,632  2,632   2,639   2,643    4    1,420      7,056

May-20  2,664  2,682  2,659  2,661   2,665   2,668    3  465,240  1,297,902

Jul-20  2,695  2,711  2,691  2,693   2,698   2,698    0   55,878     80,049

Aug-20  2,733  2,747  2,729  2,731   2,737   2,735   -2    1,696      2,645

Sep-20  2,751  2,765  2,746  2,748   2,753   2,753    0  179,326  1,242,679

Nov-20  2,773  2,789  2,771  2,774   2,778   2,778    0    2,978      2,013

Dec-20  2,805  2,811  2,797  2,797   2,802   2,803    1       63        306

Jan-21  2,815  2,823  2,799  2,801   2,812   2,806   -6    7,856     25,484

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,310,875 lots, or 72.23 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

Settle                          Interest

Mar-20  5,424  5,546  5,424  5,504   5,488   5,498   10         23        78

Apr-20  –          –      –  5,692   5,692   5,692    0          0         3

May-20  5,506  5,554  5,474  5,490   5,436   5,514   78  1,176,612   384,713

Jun-20  5,476  5,476  5,476  5,476   5,386   5,476   90          1         5

Jul-20  5,488  5,488  5,336  5,390   5,424   5,416   -8         17       303

Aug-20  5,500  5,500  5,484  5,484   5,410   5,492   82          2         3

Sep-20  5,450  5,496  5,434  5,456   5,414   5,466   52    131,840   116,444

Oct-20  –          –      –  5,426   5,426   5,426    0          0         5

Nov-20  5,564  5,564  5,564  5,564   5,472   5,564   92          1         5

Dec-20  5,620  5,620  5,492  5,492   5,494   5,528   34          7       159

Jan-21  5,368  5,424  5,364  5,412   5,356   5,406   50      2,372     5,243

Feb-21  –          –      –  5,412   5,412   5,412    0          0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 500,909 lots, or 29.88 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  –          –      –  5,798   5,798   5,798    0        0         9

May-20  5,928  5,968  5,928  5,942   5,888   5,946   58  423,227   373,262

Jul-20  6,000  6,032  5,984  5,984   5,936   6,008   72        4       421

Aug-20  6,078  6,078  6,078  6,078   6,034   6,078   44        1         4

Sep-20  6,060  6,084  6,044  6,068   6,010   6,066   56   75,349   197,710

Nov-20  –          –      –  6,104   6,104   6,104    0        0       215

Dec-20  –          –      –  6,212   6,156   6,212   56        0         8

Jan-21  6,178  6,208  6,174  6,188   6,138   6,196   58    2,328    11,781

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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