MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

 

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 24

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND

WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.

NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 20, 2020

— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

CURRENT     PREVIOUS

———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR

GRAIN      02/20/2020  02/13/2020  02/21/2019    TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY              0         144           0       28,432        6,852

CORN          912,922     795,399     761,656   13,221,709   24,952,493

FLAXSEED            0           0           0          520          242

MIXED               0           0           0            0            0

OATS                0           0           0        2,766        1,993

RYE                 0           0           0            0            0

SORGHUM        16,540      85,141      27,271    1,328,349      826,288

SOYBEANS      594,536   1,005,050   1,308,510   28,884,345   25,120,685

SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0

WHEAT         411,523     503,082     767,570   18,144,118   16,521,400

Total       1,935,521   2,388,816   2,865,007   61,610,239   67,429,953

————————————————————————-

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were lower on selling prompted by the spread of the Caronavirus.  The virus is now reported in South Korea, Italy, and Iran.  Traders fear an impact to the global economy and were selling all ag futures as well as just about any other market around..  The move lower comes amid weaker world prices for Wheat.  Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales.  East and West Europe have weaker prices as well.  The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently.  The super strong US Dollar just adds to the difficulty US producers and exporters have with sales of US Wheat into the world market.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but some snow in the ar south today.  Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March.  Support is at 530, 528, and 523 March, with resistance at 542, 5753, and 558 March.  Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives.  Support is at 451, 444, and 435 March, with resistance at 459, 463, and 469 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives.  Support is at 512, 508, and 506 March, and resistance is at 520, 525, and 530 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was a little lower in narrow range trading.  Rice felt less effect from news of the spread of the Caronavirus because the countries it has spread to do not really buy a lot of US Long Grain.  The virus has now spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran.  The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop.  Traders fear that the world economy could take a big hit from the virus, but that does not mean less overall Rice consumption, specially for the US.  Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.  Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through early this week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal today, then near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 and 1286 March.  Support is at 1326, 1324, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1352, 1357, and 1374 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn and Oats were lower I response to the spread of the Caronavirus.  It is now reported in South Korea, Italy, and Iran.  The spread of the virus has created increased fears of a meltdown in the global economy and therefore less demand for feed grains.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.  Feed demand is improved.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 370, 368, and \350 March.  Support is at 370, 368, and 365 March, and resistance is at 376, 380, and 383 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 286, 284, and 281 March.  Support is at 283, 280, and 277 March, and resistance is at 294, 298, and 301 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and products closed lower due to reports that the Caronavirus had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran.  The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop.  The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene.  It seems like everyone is waiting for China to buy in quantity.  China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country.  There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon.  A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains.  A super strong US Dollar has hurt US export chances in all products.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 861 and 854 March.  Support is at 869, 866, and 856 March, and resistance is at 878, 885, and 891 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 285.00, 283.00, and 276.00 March   Support is at 283.00, 280.00, and 277.00 March, and resistance is at 289.00, 291.00, and 294.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2910 and 2870 March.  Support is at 2930, 2870, and 2840 March, with resistance at 3000, 3070, and 3100 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was lower in response to the spread of the Caronavirus.  New reports that the Caronavirus had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran.  The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop.  The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene.    Palm Oil was sharply lower on ideas of weaker demand brought on by the spread of the Carona Virus.  Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries.  Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.  Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.

Overnight News:    SGS said Malaysian Palm Oil exports now total 970,094 tons this month, from 1.015 million tons last month.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 449.00 and 41.00 March.  Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 443.00 March, with resistance at 455.00, 458.00, and 459.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2530, 2520, and 2480 May, with resistance at 2620, 2670, and 2710 May.

 

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – Feb 24

WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada

for the month of January 2020, reported by Statistics Canada are

as follows:

Figures are in metric tons.

Year Ago     2019/20     2018/19

Canola         Jan 2020   Dec 2018     To Date     To Date

Seed crushed    854,686    829,640   5,063,065   4,724,763

Oil produced    375,307    359,742   2,211,362   2,056,896

Meal produced   476,979    468,249   2,830,663   2,644,748

Soybeans

Seed crushed    161,618    176,303     896,599   1,082,230

Oil produced     28,703     34,027     164,401     205,420

Meal produced   126,442    135,386     698,075     833,159

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Rains today and snow tomorrow, then mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal after a warm day today.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+50 Mar

+155 Mar

+95 Mar

+58 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+52 Mar

+105 Mar

+58 Mar

April

+54 May

+105 May

+49 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 24

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          425.16    -33.14    Mar 2020     dn 0.60

Basis: Thunder Bay   465.80      7.00    May 2020     dn 8.60

Basis: Vancouver     476.80     18.00    May 2020     dn 8.60

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 25

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           637.50     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           627.50     -22.50      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       615.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   610.00     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   605.00     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           640.00     -17.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           630.00     -22.50      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       617.50     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   612.50     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   607.00     -13.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           655.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           630.00     -15.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   T raded

Mar           2,600.00   -70.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           191.00     -02.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.2316)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 25

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 122,730 lots, or 5.06 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  3,568  3,604  3,564  3,564   3,585   3,573  -12       66       891

May-20  4,115  4,145  4,103  4,131   4,125   4,124   -1  115,309   120,053

Jul-20  4,109  4,134  4,109  4,134   4,130   4,121   -9        2        52

Sep-20  4,063  4,085  4,056  4,074   4,073   4,069   -4    7,250    21,066

Nov-20  –          –      –  3,979   3,979   3,979    0        0       262

Jan-21  3,988  4,000  3,980  3,995   3,993   3,989   -4      103     1,305

Corn

Turnover: 294,604 lots, or 5.68 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  1,874  1,885  1,874  1,876   1,876   1,877    1      446     9,447

May-20  1,913  1,920  1,909  1,915   1,913   1,914    1  205,596   583,010

Jul-20  1,939  1,945  1,936  1,942   1,939   1,940    1   13,384    57,364

Sep-20  1,962  1,968  1,959  1,965   1,962   1,963    1   71,758   312,955

Nov-20  1,977  1,986  1,976  1,984   1,979   1,981    2    1,896     4,990

Jan-21  1,992  1,997  1,990  1,996   1,993   1,993    0    1,524     8,925

Soymeal

Turnover: 716,009 lots, or 19.00 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  2,583  2,594  2,560  2,591   2,611   2,584  -27    1,376      5,055

May-20  2,607  2,637  2,598  2,636   2,632   2,621  -11  435,269  1,288,355

Jul-20  2,645  2,670  2,633  2,670   2,664   2,657   -7   61,820     85,574

Aug-20  2,676  2,711  2,675  2,711   2,703   2,693  -10    1,782      2,610

Sep-20  2,700  2,730  2,691  2,729   2,723   2,713  -10  201,515  1,277,207

Nov-20  2,729  2,754  2,716  2,753   2,747   2,739   -8    6,906      2,180

Dec-20  2,758  2,785  2,758  2,785   2,776   2,769   -7        5        324

Jan-21  2,761  2,789  2,751  2,788   2,780   2,772   -8    7,336     32,182

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,120,280 lots, or 59.49 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.        Vol      Open

Settle                           Interest

Mar-20  5,340  5,432  5,338  5,390   5,464   5,368   -96         26        66

Apr-20  –          –      –  5,606   5,706   5,606  -100          0        10

May-20  5,348  5,358  5,282  5,316   5,442   5,308  -134  1,006,097   386,816

Jun-20  –          –      –  5,428   5,476   5,428   -48          0         5

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,376   5,376   5,376     0          0       303

Aug-20  5,408  5,408  5,346  5,346   5,466   5,376   -90          2         2

Sep-20  5,366  5,366  5,298  5,332   5,426   5,322  -104    111,823   118,387

Oct-20  –          –      –  5,448   5,448   5,448     0          0         6

Nov-20  5,370  5,370  5,370  5,370   5,586   5,370  -216          1         5

Dec-20  5,366  5,388  5,296  5,388   5,558   5,338  -220         16       157

Jan-21  5,330  5,332  5,260  5,296   5,380   5,290   -90      2,315     6,206

Feb-21  –          –      –  5,412   5,412   5,412     0          0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 485,070 lots, or 28.34 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  –          –      –  5,850   5,850   5,850    0        0         4

May-20  5,832  5,846  5,790  5,826   5,906   5,816  -90  395,307   361,912

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,978   5,978   5,978    0        0       423

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,986   6,078   5,986  -92        0         4

Sep-20  5,952  5,984  5,926  5,950   6,038   5,950  -88   87,661   193,289

Nov-20  6,042  6,042  6,038  6,038   6,084   6,040  -44        2       215

Dec-20  6,106  6,134  6,104  6,104   6,170   6,122  -48       13        20

Jan-21  6,100  6,118  6,056  6,076   6,156   6,088  -68    2,087    13,584

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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