MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Thursday, February 27, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Feb 27

For the week ended Feb 20, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg             total

in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat          381.8     68.1   22636.9   21960.0   5018.8    399.1

hrw          111.1      0.0    8446.3    7518.1   1859.7     87.1

srw           19.4      1.5    2237.8    2896.2    363.6     58.2

hrs          201.0     16.6    6588.3    6202.5   1537.0    122.0

white         50.3      0.0    4536.3    4866.2   1110.1     20.9

durum          0.0     50.0     828.2     477.0    148.4    111.0

corn           864.6    113.6   25873.2   39555.9  12377.3   1373.6

soybeans       339.3     22.1   33720.3   38883.0   4782.8    342.0

soymeal        157.5      8.6    7842.5    8492.0   3443.3     95.8

soyoil           5.6      0.0     689.0     508.7    238.1      0.5

upland cotto   214.6    198.9   13647.4   11941.4   7080.1   1482.9

pima cotton     28.1      0.0     478.1     518.7    237.0     35.3

sorghum        444.5      0.0    1667.2     742.8    690.5     33.0

barley           0.3      0.5      49.2      58.2     15.5     31.0

rice            52.3      0.0    2687.1    2323.7    809.0      0.0

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were mixed to lower on weaker world prices for Wheat.  Russia has been lowering its prices in an effort to stimulate sales.  East and West Europe have weaker prices as well.  The competition for sales is strong as seen in the Russian and European pricing and this is what has hurt the futures prices recently.  The super strong US Dollar just adds to the difficulty US producers and exporters have with sales of US Wheat into the world market.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light snow tomorrow.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal today, then above normal by the end of the week.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 529, 513, and 498 March.  Support is at 530, 528, and 523 March, with resistance at 542, 553, and 558 March.  Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives.  Support is at 448, 444, and 435 March, with resistance at 459, 463, and 469 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives.  Support is at 512, 508, and 506 March, and resistance is at 520, 525, and 530 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was a little higher in narrow range trading.  Rice felt less effect from news of the spread of the Caronavirus because the countries it has spread to do not really buy a lot of US Long Grain.  Some producers are selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year.  More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.  Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and rains through early this week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal today, then near to below normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1326, 1324, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1347, 1352, and 1357 March.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn was a little lower and Oats were lower in response to the spread of the Caronavirus and the weakness in Wheat.  There was not much new reported during the session yesterday, but CDC did comment after the close that the virus is coming to the US and that Americans should take precautions.  It is reported in South Korea, Italy, and Iran this week.  The spread of the virus has created increased fears of a meltdown in the global economy and therefore less demand for feed grains.  Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead.  Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales in the last few weeks and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China.  The strength in the US Dollar hurts demand for US Wheat with South America now starting to offer at lower prices.  The weaker Wheat prices means more of that commodity can be used as feed as well.  Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.  US feed demand is improved.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 368, 350, and 344 March.  Support is at 368, 365, and 362 March, and resistance is at 376, 380, and 383 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 270 March.  Support is at 277, 274, and 271 March, and resistance is at 286, 290, and 294 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little higher due to the imposition of a 3% export tax by the government of Argentina on all Ag market exports.  Traders naturally thought of Soybeans and products with the move, although Corn and Wheat sales are included as well.  The Coronavirus is on its way to becoming a [pandemic with its recent spread outside of China.  It had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran this week.  The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop.  The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene.  It seems like everyone is waiting for China to buy in quantity.  China has not yet asked for a modification of the terms due to the Coronavirus outbreak currently decimating the south central area of the country.  There are hopes that China will start to buy in earnest from the US starting very soon.  A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina.  Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil.  Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming.  Argentina has been dry but is now getting some very timely rains.  A super strong US Dollar has hurt US export chances in all products.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 861 and 854 March.  Support is at 871, 869, and 866 March, and resistance is at 888, 891, and 898 March.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed   Support is at 288.00, 285.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 294.00, 295.00, and 296.00 March.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2870 March.  Support is at 2890, 2870, and 2840 March, with resistance at 2960, 32980, and 3000 March.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was a little higher in consolidation trading.  Strength in Soybeans help Canola while lower Soybean Oil and Palm Oil prices did not help at all.  New reports that the Caronavirus had spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran over the weekend, but the news was mostly silent during the session yesterday.  The number of new cases reported inside China continues to drop.  The spread of the virus brought more fears about the health of the world economic scene.    Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying tied to bargain hunting.  Demand from India has been hardest hit due to a political problem between the two countries.  Production is lower but is starting to increase seasonally.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 441.00 March.  Support is at 446.00, 443.00, and 440.00 March, with resistance at 451.00, 455.00, and 458.00 March.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2340 and 2240 May.  Support is at 2390, 2360, and 2330 May, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2570 May.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Rains today and snow tomorrow, then mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal after a warm day today.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

February

+46 Mar

+155 Mar

+100 Mar

+57 Mar

+12 Mar

N/A

March

+52 Mar

+105 Mar

+59 Mar

April

+56 May

+105 May

+50 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 26

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          416.30    -31.50    Mar 2020     dn 0.26

Basis: Thunder Bay   463.40      7.00    May 2020     up 0.10

Basis: Vancouver     474.40     18.00    May 2020     up 0.10

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 27

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           630.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           617.50     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       610.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   612.50     +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   615.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           632.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Apr           620.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May/Jun       615.50     +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   615.00     +12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Aug/Sep   617.50     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           642.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           620.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   T raded

Mar           2,500.00   +0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar           192.00     +04.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=M200.2020)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 27

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 113,697 lots, or 4.73 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  3,560  3,600  3,550  3,600   3,550   3,565   15      132       794

May-20  4,171  4,185  4,152  4,171   4,153   4,166   13  104,291   126,062

Jul-20  4,158  4,179  4,138  4,160   4,147   4,158   11        8        56

Sep-20  4,099  4,109  4,068  4,096   4,091   4,084   -7    9,019    22,588

Nov-20  4,008  4,009  4,003  4,005   3,998   4,007    9        9       267

Jan-21  4,010  4,040  4,005  4,026   4,011   4,026   15      238     1,461

Corn

Turnover: 315,964 lots, or 6.10 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  1,878  1,887  1,878  1,884   1,878   1,881    3      490     8,944

May-20  1,914  1,928  1,913  1,927   1,913   1,920    7  235,906   600,975

Jul-20  1,933  1,950  1,933  1,948   1,940   1,943    3   12,457    58,284

Sep-20  1,965  1,975  1,962  1,975   1,963   1,967    4   64,601   339,357

Nov-20  1,983  1,992  1,981  1,990   1,982   1,986    4    1,175     5,156

Jan-21  1,992  2,002  1,992  2,000   1,993   1,997    4    1,335     9,118

Soymeal

Turnover: 916,547 lots, or 24.60 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

Settle                         Interest

Mar-20  2,577  2,609  2,577  2,592   2,574   2,595   21      819      4,373

May-20  2,643  2,668  2,642  2,646   2,633   2,657   24  578,383  1,237,590

Jul-20  2,673  2,696  2,672  2,673   2,664   2,683   19   50,064     82,931

Aug-20  2,716  2,728  2,708  2,710   2,705   2,718   13    1,365      2,341

Sep-20  2,732  2,746  2,725  2,725   2,723   2,736   13  273,155  1,278,278

Nov-20  2,758  2,770  2,751  2,752   2,747   2,761   14    5,835      2,136

Dec-20  2,788  2,794  2,780  2,780   2,776   2,785    9       55        352

Jan-21  2,789  2,801  2,782  2,782   2,781   2,792   11    6,871     34,081

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,188,878 lots, or 62.02 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.        Vol      Open

Settle                           Interest

Mar-20  5,296  5,504  5,200  5,200   5,286   5,294     8         39        23

Apr-20  –          –      –  5,438   5,606   5,438  -168          0        10

May-20  5,200  5,260  5,160  5,190   5,228   5,208   -20  1,047,757   384,533

Jun-20  5,236  5,238  5,170  5,238   5,200   5,216    16         16        11

Jul-20  5,144  5,144  5,144  5,144   5,190   5,144   -46          1       305

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,258   5,192   5,258    66          0         2

Sep-20  5,242  5,304  5,216  5,276   5,252   5,268    16    139,045   134,397

Oct-20  –          –      –  5,230   5,230   5,230     0          0         5

Nov-20  –          –      –  5,272   5,272   5,272     0          0         7

Dec-20  5,306  5,316  5,296  5,296   5,308   5,308     0          4       161

Jan-21  5,190  5,282  5,188  5,258   5,222   5,246    24      2,016     7,939

Feb-21  –          –      –  5,396   5,372   5,396    24          0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 513,832 lots, or 29.90 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Mar-20  –          –      –  5,618   5,618   5,618    0        0         2

May-20  5,770  5,828  5,762  5,796   5,786   5,794    8  421,932   359,777

Jul-20  5,864  5,864  5,864  5,864   5,864   5,864    0      200       624

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,986   5,986   5,986    0        0         4

Sep-20  5,900  5,950  5,892  5,924   5,914   5,922    8   89,472   192,091

Nov-20  6,000  6,000  6,000  6,000   6,040   6,000  -40      240       455

Dec-20  –          –      –  6,104   6,104   6,104    0        0        21

Jan-21  6,016  6,078  5,868  6,054   6,042   6,050    8    1,988    14,557

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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