MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

DJ Survey: 2020 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting

CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.

U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)

Average       Range     USDA 2019

Corn                  94.253      92.5-96.4     89.700

Soybeans              84.699      82.7-87.0     76.100

All Wheat             44.859      42.3-46.0     45.158

Winter Wheat          30.847      30.1-31.7     31.159

Spring Wheat          12.615      12.0-13.4     12.660

Durum Wheat            1.505       1.1-2.4       1.339

Winter    Spring    Durum

Corn   Soybeans    Wheat     Wheat     Wheat    Wheat

Advanced Market        93.5       85.5     45.8     30.1      13.4      2.2

Allendale              94.6       83.7     44.5     30.9      12.4      1.1

DC Analysis            94.0       85.0     44.8     30.8      12.2      1.8

Doane                  94.2       83.8     45.6     30.8      12.5      2.4

EDFMan Capital         96.0       83.0     44.4     30.8      12.5      1.1

Farm Futures           96.4       82.7     45.8     31.7

Grain Cycles           93.0       84.5     44.7     31.0      12.4      1.3

Hueber Report          93.0       85.0     46.0     31.1      12.5      1.4

INTL FCStone           93.7       84.6     44.4     30.2      12.7      1.5

Sid Love Consulting    94.0       85.5     45.3     30.8      13.0      1.5

Midland Research       93.4       85.0     42.3     30.8      12.9      1.8

Northstar              94.0       84.0     44.5     30.8      12.8      1.4

Prime-Ag               94.5       85.5     45.0

RMC                    95.0       84.0     46.0

RJ O’Brien             94.5       86.0     45.0     31.0      12.6      1.4

US Commodities         96.0       85.5     44.5

Vantage RM             94.5       84.0     44.5     30.7      12.5      1.3

Western Milling        94.0       85.0     44.0     30.8      12.0      1.2

Zaner Ag Hedge         92.5       87.0     45.4     31.3      12.8      1.3

 

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates

CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Tuesday.

U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2020 (million bushels)

USDA         USDA

Average       Range    Mar. 2019    Dec. 2019

Corn                      8,162     7,892-8,492     8,613       11,389

Soybeans                  2,237     2,075-2,701     2,727        3,252

Wheat                     1,437     1,385-1,572     1,593        1,834

Corn     Soybeans         Wheat

Advanced Market           8,202        2,091        1,428

Allendale                 8,240        2,214        1,423

DC Analysis               7,945        2,178        1,423

Doane                     8,085        2,180        1,385

EDFMan Capital            8,300        2,500        1,540

Grain Cycles              7,985        2,185        1,405

INTL FCStone              7,892        2,209        1,399

Sid Love Consulting       8,146        2,203        1,424

Midland Research          8,115        2,170        1,430

Northstar                 8,247        2,210        1,430

Prime-Ag                  8,100        2,075        1,475

RJ O’Brien                8,034        2,168        1,408

US Commodities            8,317                     1,425

Vantage RM                8,492        2,701        1,572

Western Milling           8,124        2,195        1,399

Zaner Ag Hedge            8,364        2,282        1,427

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were mostly a little higher, but some nearby months were lower.  The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought.  They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and basis levels have moved sharply higher.  In addition, there was a lot of talk of restricted exports from Russia as Wheat prices have moved sharply higher as have flour prices in local markets.  For now the restrictions imposed do not seem to be onerous, but the situation bears watching.  Restrictions are also being placed on Ukraine Wheat exports.  It remains dry in most growing areas near the Black Sea.  The dry weather pattern continues in these areas and must still be watched although it is too early for any kind of a market reaction.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get showers.  Temperatures should be variable.  Northern areas should see a dry week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 562, 547, and 539 May, with resistance at 583, 587, and 591 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 479, 476, and 466 May, with resistance at 494, 497, and 506 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 527, 519, and 516 May, and resistance is at 542, 545, and 550 May.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was higher.  Mills and speculators were buyers.  The domestic situation remains tight.  Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  Mills and exporters are calling previously bought Rice to keep the market supplied.  This is happening mostly in Arkansas as Gulf Coastal areas are mostly sold out of Rice.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers.  Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with no objectives.  Support is at 1399, 1380, and 1365 May, with resistance at 1425, 1436, and 1448 May.

 

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn closed lower as the trade war between Saudi Arabia and Russia hurt domestic ethanol production and the effects of the Coronavirus became part of the market.  Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels and ethanol plants in the US are shutting down or greatly reducing run times.  That means a lot less Corn demand.  The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world.  The loss in ethanol demand inside the US is very large.

Overnight News:  Japan bought 113,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 338, 333, and 330 May, and resistance is at 350, 353, and 357 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 270, 274, and 279 May.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans closed mostly a little higher on logistical problems in South America.  Soybean Meal closed mostly a little higher.  Soybean Oil closed a little higher.  Both the Soybeans and Soybean Meal markets were supported in part by the lack of ethanol production here in the US.  Little or now ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed.  Logistical problems caused by the Coronavirus in South America also played a major role in the rally.  Argentina and Brazil are having trouble getting trucks from farms to crushers and exporters.  The problems are especially in Argentina, where several towns have moved to block traffic in defiance of federal orders.  Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 871, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 892, 897, and 904 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 315.00 and 303.00 May.   Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 318.00 May, and resistance is at 329.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2620, 2570, and 2530 May, with resistance at 2740, 2760, and 2830 May.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was a little higher.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts.  Palm Oil was lower on ideas of slow demand.  Production is also dropping.  Workers are not in the fields or the processors due to the Coronavirus.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 460.00, 453.00, and 451.00 May, with resistance at 467.00, 470.00, and 473.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2600 and 2810 June.  Support is at 2400, 2300, and 2270 June, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2550 June.

 

 

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

+56 May

+150 May

+67 May

+62 May

+12 May

N/A

April

+55 May

+67 May

+56 May

May

+55 May

+72 May

+58 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 30

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          430.90    -32.00    May 2020     up 0.10

Basis: Thunder Bay   477.50     10.00    May 2020     up 4.60

Basis: Vancouver     492.50     25.00    May 2020     up 4.60

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 31

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           605.00     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May           600.00     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jun           592.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   570.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   570.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           607.50     -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

May           602.50     -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jun           595.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   572.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   572.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           615.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           585.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           2,520.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           183.00      -02.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.311)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 31

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 472,724 lots, or 22.60 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

May-20  4,919  4,947  4,827  4,866   4,839   4,873   34  354,702   100,492

Jul-20  4,715  4,729  4,638  4,694   4,662   4,673   11       96       180

Sep-20  4,516  4,597  4,437  4,566   4,481   4,522   41  112,919    59,942

Nov-20  4,110  4,171  4,096  4,171   4,160   4,129  -31       27       322

Jan-21  4,127  4,137  4,051  4,098   4,139   4,096  -43    4,977    15,817

Mar-21  4,143  4,144  4,140  4,140   4,182   4,142  -40        3        25

Corn

Turnover: 423,025 lots, or 8.61 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

May-20  1,988  1,994  1,981  1,990   1,991   1,987   -4   57,756   263,492

Jul-20  2,022  2,025  2,013  2,022   2,022   2,018   -4   21,871    64,626

Sep-20  2,047  2,051  2,038  2,048   2,049   2,044   -5  332,390   777,752

Nov-20  2,063  2,067  2,056  2,065   2,068   2,061   -7    2,496     8,798

Jan-21  2,082  2,089  2,077  2,085   2,086   2,083   -3    6,809    51,624

Mar-21  2,097  2,102  2,091  2,098   2,102   2,095   -7    1,703     1,530

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,725,867 lots, or 50.75 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

Settle                           Interest

May-20  2,985  2,985  2,946  2,957   3,003   2,961  -42    323,736    600,653

Jul-20  2,950  2,953  2,914  2,925   2,976   2,927  -49     54,246     86,391

Aug-20  2,942  2,954  2,913  2,940   2,969   2,931  -38     42,620      7,691

Sep-20  2,950  2,956  2,920  2,940   2,976   2,936  -40  1,239,161  1,726,368

Nov-20  2,952  2,953  2,919  2,943   2,974   2,935  -39     11,891      6,239

Dec-20  2,938  2,966  2,933  2,951   2,979   2,948  -31         37        300

Jan-21  2,929  2,938  2,903  2,928   2,957   2,919  -38     54,112    152,563

Mar-21  2,879  2,903  2,870  2,897   2,919   2,885  -34         64        383

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,171,415 lots, or 57.60 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

Apr-20  –          –      –  4,598   4,598   4,598    0        0         0

May-20  5,010  5,044  4,880  4,892   4,950   4,956    6  780,755   160,185

Jun-20  5,142  5,142  4,986  4,986   4,998   5,086   88       28        37

Jul-20  4,866  4,994  4,812  4,812   5,014   4,916  -98       13       278

Aug-20  4,930  4,960  4,930  4,960   4,886   4,950   64        3         4

Sep-20  4,906  4,930  4,756  4,762   4,854   4,832  -22  384,654   208,821

Oct-20  –          –      –  4,724   4,744   4,724  -20        0         7

Nov-20  –          –      –  4,886   4,908   4,886  -22        0         6

Dec-20  –          –      –  4,912   4,934   4,912  -22        0       157

Jan-21  4,926  4,974  4,824  4,834   4,924   4,910  -14    5,962    19,729

Feb-21  –          –      –  4,906   4,906   4,906    0        0         3

Mar-21  –          –      –  4,974   4,974   4,974    0        0         1

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 544,439 lots, or 30.04 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

May-20  5,490  5,532  5,386  5,390   5,490   5,460  -30  126,853   163,837

Jul-20  5,524  5,524  5,450  5,454   5,530   5,476  -54        3       267

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,450   5,450   5,450    0        0         2

Sep-20  5,568  5,606  5,456  5,468   5,574   5,534  -40  412,702   419,707

Nov-20  5,654  5,680  5,532  5,532   5,662   5,626  -36       34       704

Dec-20  5,692  5,694  5,642  5,682   5,646   5,676   30        4        13

Jan-21  5,708  5,708  5,562  5,578   5,674   5,630  -44    4,843    31,169

Mar-21  –          –      –  5,670   5,670   5,670    0        0         3

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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