MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Friday, May 22, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report

  The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.

                                Average            Range

                              of estimates      of estimates

  On-feed May 1                   95.0           94.1- 95.7

  Placed in April                 77.1           71.8- 86.7

  Marketed in April               74.7           70.0- 82.7

   Analyst                      On-Feed        Placements    Marketed

                                May 1          in April      in April 

   Allegiant Commodity Group     95.2            78.8          74.6

   Allendale Inc.                95.1            86.7          82.7

   HedgersEdge                   94.1            71.8          74.6

   Linn Group                    95.0            71.9          70.0

   Livestock Mktg Info Ctr       94.9            77.3          75.0

   NFC Markets                   94.4            74.1          74.7

   Texas A&M Extension           95.4            80.0          75.0

   U.S. Commodities              95.7            80.5          74.0

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 21

    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers

totaled 80.870 million pounds, in April, 3.5% above the previous

month, and 32.3% above April 2019, the U.S. Department Agriculture

said Thursday.

    In thousand pounds.

                                                                   public

                       Apr 30     Mar 31     Apr 30      Mar 31   warehouse

                         2020       2020       2019       2019   stocks/Apr

pork bellies           80,870     78,157     61,110     58,783

orange juice          838,528    802,443    795,383    704,400

french fries          978,968  1,077,825    969,089  1,038,225

other potatoes        217,705    231,638    242,123    253,586

chicken rstr (whole)   22,545     20,146     18,037     19,048

ham                   114,433     88,308    121,331    103,486

total pork            614,811    616,734    621,456    608,379     550,088

total beef            489,999    502,319    430,222    451,940     479,867

total red meat      1,148,113  1,161,747  1,098,090  1,095,919   1,070,618

total chicken         933,585    920,101    881,055    868,359

total turkey          417,032    387,503    471,592    470,335

total poultry       1,356,475  1,311,016  1,356,871  1,342,856   1,283,479

===============================================================================

WHEAT:                                                                                                

General Comments:   Wheat markets were higher in fund related buying tied to the dry weather in Europe and Russia.  Europe got some rains after a prolonged dry spell and Russia also got a little rain in northern and central areas.  The rains in Russia are leaving southern areas dry.  These areas have turned dry again.  The US Midwest has also seen a lot of rain and a bumper SRW crop is expected.  It has been hot and dry in central and southern areas of the Great Plains.  However, there is rain in the forecast for later this week.  The crop suffered Winterkill first and now is suffering under the hot and dry weather.  It has been mostly dry but cold in the northern Great Plains and into the Canadian Prairies but the market is less concerned about production potential for Spring Wheat crops.  Warmer and drier weather is expected this week.  End users are uncovered and will need to buy at some point. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Northern areas should see dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average below normal in the west and above normal in the east.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 508, 501, and 496 July, with resistance at 528, 535, and 540 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 449, 439, and 431 July, with resistance at 461, 468, and 473 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 510, 504, and 502 July, and resistance is at 526, 528, and 534 July.

RICE

General Comments:  Rice was a little lower in quiet trading.  There is not much going on in this market these days. The domestic situation remains tight for the old crop month of July.  New crop months have reflected ideas of greatly increased planted area from producers.  Some producers are selling the next crop and some hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures.  Planting should be active again this week in Arkansas and Mississippi.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  However, they were a marketing year low last week at about 28,000 tons.  The weekly crop progress reports showed that southern Rice is developing well.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers Temperatures should be generally below normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1591, 1581, and 1562 July, with resistance at 1637, 1656, and 1668 July.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn was a little lower.  Improved fundamentals are offering a little support, but overall attitudes are still bearish.  The main fundamental remains demand destruction caused by the lack of ethanol demand and the lack of feed demand.  Both have been detrimentally affected by the Coronavirus.  The virus has caused states to impose stay at home orders on its people.  Some states are starting to open now in the US but it is unclear if the people will move out and enjoy life as before.  The experience in other countries suggests that the people will be very cautious in any activities and really not go out and spend money or hit the stores as before.  Driving will be significantly less either way.  Feed demand has been reduced as packers have been forced to shut plants down due to infected employees in the plants.  The plants are opening now with some government mandated protections for workers, but not all workers are back to work and the social distancing requirements means that less meat can be processed in any case.  Cattle and hog producers are seeing less demand for their production and that has affected feed demand.  Feed and ethanol demand are improving, but most still see a cut in these demand areas and increased ending stocks down the road for Corn.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 314, 312, and 308 July, and resistance is at 325, 327, and 332 July.  Trends in Oats are up with no objectives.  Support is at 309, 300, and 295 July, and resistance is at 323, 327, and 330 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were higher.  Soybeans and also Soybean Oil found support from ideas of increased bio fuels demand, but Soybeans did not hear of any new demand from China.  The demand has been slow otherwise with the significant competition from Brazil.  The Real has weakened a lot against the US Dollar and Brazil producers can sell at very high prices in the local currency.  Weather became more important late in the week but it is improving with warmer temperatures.  Some Soybeans might need to be replanted this week.  Brazil production is almost sold out now.  Production estimates are slightly less than before due to hot and dry weather in some areas.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 832, 830, and 818 July, and resistance is at 850, 861, and 868 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 279.00 July.   Support is at 280.00, 277.00, and 274.00 July, and resistance is at 286.00, 288.00, and 290.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2680, 2630, and 2620 July, with resistance at 2760, 2810, and 2860 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower despite increasing demand for bio fuels and consumer consumption as an edible oil.  Palm Oil is hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic.  In particular, India has been buying as restrictions have eased there and China has been a noted buyer recently.  Canola was lower yesterday in part on the price action in Chicago.  Speculators were the best sellers.  Canola has found support from a weaker Canadian Dollar.  The weather has been cold in the Prairies and planting has been delayed in Alberta from too much rain.  Saskatchewan reported that planting was the same as the five year average.  It will turn warmer this week. 

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 464.00 July.  Support is at 465.00, 462.00, and 459.00 July, with resistance at 472.00, 474.00, and 478.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 August.  Support is at 2130, 2100, and 2010 August, with resistance at 2210, 2260, and 2290 August.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 21

     WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary

statistics for the week ended May 17, 2020. Figures in thousands of metric

tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.

                  Durum

           Wheat  Wheat  Oats  Barley  Flax  Canola   Peas   Corn  Total*

COMMERCIAL STOCKS

This Week 2432.6  522.8  238.8  444.4  75.0  1073.4  263.2  124.2  5667.3

Week Ago  2799.1  597.0  253.7  434.6  78.5  1157.3  326.6  126.2  6338.3

Year Ago  2302.0  506.8  204.9  256.6  71.1   916.1  273.5  397.6  5623.5

PRODUCER DELIVERIES

This Week  269.6   75.5   19.5   42.1   7.1   296.0   27.0    4.2   789.0

Week Ago   310.4   67.6   24.6   63.0  17.8   369.5   64.3    5.0  1003.1

To Date  16943.4 4034.3 2122.3 3247.1 295.5 15930.0 3283.2  287.6 49316.5

Year Ago 17104.6 3519.1 1789.8 2940.6 326.5 14374.6 2723.0  453.4 46433.8

TERMINAL RECEIPTS

This Week  396.3   89.3    0.1   56.5  16.9   138.0   47.7   23.5   817.0

Week Ago   522.5  124.4    2.0   87.5  20.6   165.6   61.1   27.0  1102.9

To Date  14914.3 4834.1  387.0 1676.2 123.4  8584.0 2104.3  240.5 37335.9

Year Ago 16140.0 3888.2  335.8 1828.4 106.8  7924.2 1556.2 1110.3 38559.8

EXPORTS

This Week  350.8   94.9   19.4  139.5   0.5   131.7   27.6   50.8   895.2

Week Ago   755.0  204.9    9.2   64.5   0.9   138.6   67.6    8.6  1313.1

To Date  12993.6 4114.7 1367.5 1754.4 114.9  7839.9 2092.8   91.0 33838.0

Year Ago 14249.6 3512.1 1251.0 1993.2 193.1  7368.5 1595.4 1332.1 35526.3

DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE

This Week   35.7    3.2    9.2   30.0   1.2   188.4    3.9   10.0   325.9

Week Ago    50.0    6.4   18.9   26.8   3.4   237.0   10.5    7.2   392.7

To Date   3189.0  311.4  586.2 1299.0  42.9  8301.4  187.4  465.4 15747.8

Year Ago  3218.7  280.0  240.3  908.7  46.6  7400.5  170.3  909.9 14998.1

*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,

canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas. 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,

news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry this week but showers are possible this weekend.  Temperatures should average near normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
CornHRWSRWSoybeansSoybean MealSoybean Oil
May+48 July+130 May+60 May+47 JulyN/AN/A
June+45 July+50 July+55 July
July+48 July+50 July+58 July
  [JS1]   

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 25

   WINNIPEG, May 21 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures. Source:  ICE Futures 

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          456.60    -13.00    June 2020    dn 2.70

Basis: Thunder Bay   477.20     10.00    June 2020    dn 5.40

Basis: Vancouver     492.20     25.00    June 2020    dn 5.40

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 22

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June           532.50     -05.00     Unquoted   –        –

July           530.00     -02.50     Unquoted   –        –

Aug/Sep        525.00     -02.50     Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec    532.50     -02.50     Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June           535.00     -05.00     Unquoted   –        –

July           532.50     -02.50     Unquoted   –        –

Aug/Sep        527.50     -02.50     Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec    535.00     -02.50     Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          535.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          505.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          2,220.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          165.00     -01.00      Unquoted   –        –  

($1=MYR4.3575)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 22

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 485,330 lots, or 21.29 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  5,003  5,039  4,994  5,034   4,977   5,024   47      338     1,899

Sep-20  4,332  4,463  4,315  4,420   4,289   4,399  110  468,126   128,856

Nov-20  4,028  4,100  4,028  4,063   4,003   4,080   77       81       473

Jan-21  3,955  4,039  3,941  4,029   3,940   4,000   60   16,607    18,103

Mar-21  4,002  4,078  4,002  4,040   3,967   4,061   94        7        47

May-21  3,971  4,053  3,971  4,039   3,990   4,029   39      171       170

Corn

Turnover: 373,890 lots, or 7.57 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  1,991  2,002  1,989  1,992   2,008   1,996  -12   11,506    46,148

Sep-20  2,014  2,027  2,013  2,022   2,032   2,019  -13  311,634   725,748

Nov-20  2,037  2,048  2,036  2,043   2,056   2,043  -13    2,365     5,697

Jan-21  2,060  2,071  2,055  2,065   2,075   2,064  -11   41,057   194,266

Mar-21  2,071  2,086  2,071  2,084   2,089   2,080   -9    3,353     3,260

May-21  2,100  2,113  2,094  2,110   2,106   2,106    0    3,975     7,126

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,407,601 lots, or 38.77 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Jul-20  2,596  2,623  2,580  2,598   2,608   2,597  -11     20,993     63,609

Aug-20  2,737  2,751  2,710  2,732   2,733   2,724   -9     15,092     22,312

Sep-20  2,743  2,773  2,730  2,754   2,749   2,748   -1  1,108,961  1,588,520

Nov-20  2,775  2,803  2,765  2,790   2,786   2,782   -4     16,978     15,114

Dec-20  2,813  2,813  2,800  2,810   2,828   2,807  -21          7        366

Jan-21  2,807  2,834  2,800  2,820   2,821   2,816   -5    209,236    467,471

Mar-21  2,712  2,732  2,707  2,722   2,719   2,715   -4        330      2,039

May-21  2,645  2,660  2,635  2,649   2,647   2,646   -1     36,004     61,593

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,413,882 lots, or 64.55 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                          Interest

Jun-20  4,684  4,684  4,684  4,684   4,668   4,684   16          1         5

Jul-20  4,616  4,736  4,616  4,688   4,724   4,690  -34         19        11

Aug-20  4,708  4,708  4,580  4,706   4,668   4,656  -12          6         4

Sep-20  4,612  4,642  4,474  4,480   4,578   4,558  -20  1,319,583   410,775

Oct-20  4,540  4,578  4,456  4,460   4,510   4,522   12        106       353

Nov-20  4,586  4,600  4,500  4,500   4,576   4,548  -28         78       178

Dec-20  4,622  4,622  4,540  4,540   4,626   4,570  -56          6       178

Jan-21  4,710  4,742  4,586  4,588   4,686   4,658  -28     93,378    93,438

Feb-21  4,762  4,762  4,762  4,762   4,758   4,762    4          1        16

Mar-21  4,810  4,816  4,730  4,730   4,808   4,770  -38         11        20

Apr-21  4,744  4,744  4,726  4,726   4,778   4,742  -36         53        53

May-21  4,840  4,880  4,754  4,760   4,814   4,810   -4        640     1,969

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 491,614 lots, or 26.79 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,448   5,448   5,448    0        0         5

Aug-20  5,460  5,460  5,460  5,460   5,470   5,460  -10        1         2

Sep-20  5,470  5,490  5,380  5,392   5,468   5,438  -30  427,197   414,770

Nov-20  –          –      –  5,506   5,536   5,506  -30        0       409

Dec-20  5,560  5,560  5,560  5,560   5,562   5,560   -2        1        33

Jan-21  5,582  5,594  5,472  5,484   5,568   5,526  -42   63,248   105,639

Mar-21  5,556  5,556  5,556  5,556   5,638   5,556  -82        1        19

May-21  5,658  5,672  5,550  5,556   5,644   5,604  -40    1,166     1,050  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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