MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Thursday, June 04, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ Food Prices Fell for Fourth Consecutive Month in May But Rate of Decline Slowed

  By Will Horner  

  Global food prices continued their decline in May as the Covid-19 pandemic hit demand while supplies remained strong, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.

  The UN FAO’s Food Price Index dropped to 162.5 points in May, a 1.9% fall from the previous month.

  That marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline for the index which tracks the prices of common food commodities. However, the rate of decline slowed in May from April, suggesting the impact of the virus was waning.

  The index fell as meat, dairy, cereals and vegetable oil prices ticked lower. The only food-stuff to rise, according to the index, was sugar with the FAO’s Sugar Price Index rebounding 7.4% after hitting a 13-year low in April.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 4

    For the week ended May 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA  

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat           179.5    437.3   26945.1   25842.1   2467.8   3470.2

  hrw           133.2    151.3   10167.5    9399.4    641.3   1460.0

  srw             3.3     38.7    2446.6    3332.1    128.8    424.4

  hrs            37.7    101.4    8000.4    7152.4   1040.1    749.4

  white           5.1    135.9    5365.1    5454.5    614.2    583.3

  durum           0.2     10.0     965.5     503.7     43.4    253.0

corn            637.5     27.5   40475.8   48238.2  11461.2   3412.5

soybeans        495.2    607.4   42657.3   46682.0   6731.3   2939.8

soymeal         558.9     25.0   10523.1   11005.8   2419.9    304.9

soyoil            9.4      0.0    1150.1     756.5    257.7     11.0

upland cotton   -10.1     12.4   16325.7   15093.2   5010.3   2834.3

pima cotton       0.5      0.0     557.3     710.8    143.5     33.8

sorghum          93.3      0.0    3946.8    1560.3   1320.9    195.0

barley            0.0      0.5      50.3      61.2      9.2     31.5

rice             28.6      0.0    3358.2    3138.2    554.4      0.0

DJ U.S. April Grain Imports-Jun 4

   In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to

pounds by Dow Jones.

                           —-Apr 2020—-                —-Mar 2020—-

                             kilograms          pounds       kilograms          pounds

durum wheat                     90,644         199,870      11,166,299      24,621,689

spring wheat                 5,660,960      12,482,417       5,828,005      12,850,751

winter wheat                 1,399,047       3,084,899       2,034,828       4,486,796

wheat/meslin                41,405,959      91,300,140      15,218,372      33,556,510

TOTAL WHEAT                 48,556,610     107,067,325      34,247,504      75,515,746

barley                       5,001,796      11,028,960       7,778,692      17,152,016

oats                         1,651,545       3,641,657       3,038,505       6,699,904

corn                        89,809,712     198,030,415      56,455,139     124,483,581

other corn                   2,828,754       6,237,403       4,895,349      10,794,245

TOTAL CORN                  92,638,466     204,267,818      61,350,488     135,277,826

DJ U.S. Apr Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Jun 4

   In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds

by Dow Jones.  

                           —-Apr 2020—-                —-Mar 2020—-

                             kilograms          pounds       kilograms          pounds

coconut oil                 36,879,319      81,318,898      43,822,372      96,628,330

palm kernel oil             26,815,367      59,127,884      40,436,229      89,161,885

palm oil                   122,277,733     269,622,401     155,450,862     342,769,151

soybean                     19,888,932      43,855,095      28,931,565      63,794,101

soymeal                              0               0               0               0

soyoil                      11,076,058      24,422,708      10,809,135      23,834,143

rapeseed oil

 edible                    152,614,011     336,513,894     178,060,303     392,622,968

rapeseed oil,

 inedible                            0               0          53,799         118,627

DJ U.S. April Grain Exports-Jun 4

    In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt

in pounds.  /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department

of Commerce.

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

                               ——- In Kilograms ——-

                         Apr 20         Mar 20         Feb 20      Apr 19(*)

Barley                1,550,244      1,984,946      1,805,334      4,307,261

Corn /1           5,057,455,000  4,615,912,000  3,916,049,000  5,472,181,000

Sorghum             802,729,000    497,459,000    297,902,000    124,286,000

Oats                  2,725,657      3,013,947      3,294,333      1,536,428

Rye                           0         37,342         10,201         30,000

Wheat /1          2,375,754,205  1,826,731,079  2,184,411,853  2,842,959,881

  wheat flour /1     25,421,406     24,906,677     22,924,077     22,935,912

Malt                 12,130,043     35,971,083     34,692,762     35,137,117  

                            ——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-

                         Apr 20         Mar 20         Feb 20      Apr 19(*)

Barley                   71,201         91,167         82,917        197,829

Corn /1             199,101,165    181,718,564    154,166,457    215,428,039

Sorghum              31,601,720     19,583,895     11,727,763      4,892,873

Oats                    187,781        207,642        226,959        105,850

Rye                           0          1,470            402          1,181

Wheat /1             87,293,128     67,120,188     80,262,572    104,459,822

  wheat flour /1        560,446        549,098        505,389        505,650

Malt                 26,742,172     79,302,677     76,484,461     77,464,096

1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. April Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jun 4

   In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in

short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

                               ——- In Kilograms ——-

                        Apr 20          Mar 20          Feb 20     Apr 19(*)

soybeans          2,163,874,345   2,571,519,925   2,758,866,780 2,399,256,207

soyoil              104,437,136     145,507,537     179,744,204    67,260,563

  crude              87,695,281     130,366,996     163,046,872    54,848,471

  refined             3,665,050         283,982         108,209       269,364

  other/1            12,827,083      14,397,811      16,290,645    11,760,032

  hydrogenated          249,722         458,748         298,478       382,696

cottonseed oil        6,719,262       2,864,334       1,869,006     1,834,714

  crude                 357,000         542,000         551,000        50,033

  refined             4,875,431       1,014,467           3,181     1,350,346

  other/1             1,486,831       1,307,867       1,251,311       434,335

  hydrogenated                0               0          63,514             0

sunseeds                227,385           9,965         111,174        13,964

sunseed oil           3,463,941       3,221,614       2,656,075     3,418,492

rapeseed              6,411,264      18,269,059      18,964,381    48,499,551

rapeseed oil         11,585,348       6,354,345       9,792,681     6,277,562

   crude              3,873,428       1,413,698       5,914,163       466,400

   refined            7,711,920       4,940,647       3,878,518     5,811,162

linseed meal            170,562         223,298          76,253        84,329

cottonseed meal       7,481,237       7,594,851       7,107,971    10,785,281

soymeal             861,271,705     966,833,938   1,026,610,411 1,007,722,086

soymeal/flour       228,907,866     236,117,297     227,891,987   249,266,524

soymeal hulls        14,306,000       5,297,000       5,132,000    13,508,000

lard                  1,112,013       1,806,097       1,554,612       838,291

edible tallow         9,587,544       7,695,279      10,542,563     9,480,138

inedible tallow      16,866,889      45,309,459      36,917,562    28,534,460

ch white grease               0          11,951       5,010,434         8,894  

                         ——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-

                         Apr 20          Mar 20          Feb 20     Apr 19(*)

soybeans             79,507,956      94,486,213     101,369,961    88,156,670

soyoil              230,244,512     320,789,263     396,268,206   148,284,184

  crude             193,335,033     287,410,078     359,456,884   120,920,201

  refined             8,080,054         626,073         238,560       593,846

  other/1            28,278,882      31,741,745      35,914,731    25,926,437

  hydrogenated          550,543       1,011,366         658,031       843,700

cottonseed oil       14,813,440       6,314,777       4,120,454     4,044,853

  crude                 787,050       1,194,906       1,214,747       110,304

  refined            10,748,487       2,236,517           7,013     2,977,004

  other/1             3,277,902       2,883,354       2,758,669       957,545

  hydrogenated                0               0         140,024             0

sunseeds                501,298          21,969         245,097        30,785

sunseed oil           7,636,684       7,102,444       5,855,644     7,536,486

rapeseed             14,134,420      40,276,388      41,809,311   106,923,226

rapeseed oil         25,541,325      14,008,935      21,589,170    13,839,658

   crude              8,539,448       3,116,671      13,038,500     1,028,236

   refined           17,001,876      10,892,264       8,550,670    12,811,421

linseed meal                188             246              84            93

cottonseed meal           8,247           8,372           7,835        11,889

soymeal                 949,380       1,065,741       1,131,633     1,110,812

soymeal flour/me        252,325         260,272         251,205       274,766

soymeal hulls            15,770           5,839           5,657        14,890

lard                  2,451,569       3,981,763       3,427,333     1,848,116

edible tallow        21,136,920      16,965,189      23,242,377    20,900,130

inedible tallow      37,185,131      99,890,275      81,389,306    62,907,727

ch white grease               0          26,347      11,046,118        19,608

WHEAT:                                                                                                

General Comments:   Wheat markets finished higher as the weather seemed to improve in Russia.  Black Sea prices are holding stronger as Russia has run out of old crop Wheat to sell into the world market.  Any sales by producers will be in the domestic market where the prices are higher.  It was a week of mixed weather news as Russia got good rains in just about all areas but parts of Europe and the western Great Plains of the US stayed dry.  The weather is also good in Australia and has been good for planting in Argentina although Argentina has also been drier than normal.  Frequent showers are being reported in most of Australia.  The big weather feature is the dry weather in Europe and the US and this dry weather has been supporting world prices and futures price action.  Competition for sales is expected to be tough even with less in the US and Europe as Australia is coming back after years of drought and as Russia has better weather and improved production prospects.  The harvest, small or big, is coming and prices usually start to move lower soon and remain down through the harvest.  Any rally at this time might not go much farther.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average below normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 507, 501, and 496 July, with resistance at 522, 524, and 528 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 457, 4412, and 439 July, with resistance at 467, 472, and 477 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 504, 502, and 497 July, and resistance is at 526, 534, and 538 July.

RICE

General Comments:  Rice was a little lower in new crop months and sharply higher in old crop July.  The funds are buying the old crop futures on ideas of supply tightness and there is little old crop Rice left in first hands to temper the rally.  Mills are also not selling July although they own Rice and neither are exporters.  The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short Rice.  There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.  Most of the unsold Rice is in Arkansas.  The crops are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting has been problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.  However, USDA data shows that these crops are getting planted and are thriving.  Ideas are that the long grain will get planted and producers will not plant medium grain if some prevent planting is needed.  There are still ideas that the US will have a much bigger crop to harvest this Fall.  July appears destined to test the highs made by the May contract and could have a final objective of $23.50 based on the monthly chart patterns. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be generally above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with no objectives.  Support is at 12040, 2028, and 2016 July, with resistance at 2068, 2080, and 2092 July.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn was about unchanged on the day.  USDA showed good progress and very good condition for the Corn crop this week and an above trend yield is being forecast by many analysts.  Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants.  The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices will fall.  This will take some time, but it is starting to come to pass especially in the wholesale meats trade.  Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifted in most states and in Europe.  Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time.  All this still implies that ending stocks for Corn as projected by USDA can increase, but the increase should not be as great as originally thought.  Export demand is becoming more difficult with US prices quoted above those in Argentina and Ukraine.  Corn can rally a little more before the current seasonal rally runs out of steam and as the funds still hold a significant short position and as farmers are scale up selling into the rally. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 346 July.  Support is at 321, 319, and 315 July, and resistance is at 330, 332, and 340 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 326, 323, and 320 July, and resistance is at 335, 339, and 342 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were higher as Chinese demand came once again into question.  During the day the wires said that unknown destinations had bought 186,000 tons of US beans.  China is looking to curb the dissent in Hong Kong over moves to bring the city more under central government control from Beijing.  The world has objected and the US has now imposed some additional sanctions on the country.  The sanctions seem designed to keep trade flowing between the countries but the Chinese moves might upend all of that.  China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade.  Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies.

Overnight News:  USDA said that 120,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to unknown destinations.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 867, 869, and 885 July.  Support is at 846, 834, and 818 July, and resistance is at 862, 868, and 877 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 282.00, 280.00, and 277.00 July, and resistance is at 286.00, 288.00, and 290.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 2840 and 3020 July.  Support is at 2750, 2720, and 2690 July, with resistance at 2820, 2860, and 2960 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  World vegetable oils markets were higher.  Palm Oil closed higher on ideas of reduced production and reports of better export demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic.  A government change in Malaysia helped open the Indian market to Malaysian imports again.  China is also buying.  Southern Malaysia producers reported a sharp drop in production and there are ideas that all of Malaysia will come in below previous months.  Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels.  Canola closed a little higher on Chicago and despite improved growing conditions in the Canadian Prairies.  Canola has found support from the recent recovery in Soybeans and Soybean Oil along with a weaker Canadian Dollar.  Canola is more of a food oil than the others, although it also has bio fuels uses.  A BC judge ruled against the release of the Huawei executive last week and this renewed trade tensions between Canada and China.  The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks after weeks of cold and wet weather. 

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with no objectives.  Support is at 459.00, 456.00, and 452.00 July, with resistance at 465.00, 468.00, and 470.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 August.  Support is at 2380, 2270, and 2240 August, with resistance at 2510, 2590, and 2860 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Scattered showers this week with best amounts and coverage tomorrow.  Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
CornHRWSRWSoybeansSoybean MealSoybean Oil
June+45 July+133 May+50 July+59 JulyN/AN/A
July+43 July+53 July+63 July
August+41 Sep+64 Aug
  [JS1]   

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 3

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          446.80    -13.00    Jul 2020     up 2.70

Basis: Thunder Bay   473.90     13.00    Jul 2020     up 1.10

Basis: Vancouver     485.90     25.00    Jul 2020     up 1.10

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 4

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June           590.00    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

July           580.00    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Aug/Sep        572.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec    567.50    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June           592.50    -07.50      Unquoted   –        –

July           582.50    -12.50      Unquoted   –        –

Aug/Sep        575.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec    570.00    -10.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          577.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          535.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          2,410.00   -50.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

June          181.00     -04.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.2760)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 04

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 231,335 lots, or 10.26 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  5,031  5,088  5,012  5,041   5,019   5,033   14       87     1,415

Sep-20  4,448  4,482  4,416  4,459   4,502   4,449  -53  223,461   123,128

Nov-20  4,107  4,107  4,054  4,091   4,083   4,078   -5       20       509

Jan-21  4,006  4,042  4,001  4,035   4,033   4,027   -6    7,439    20,050

Mar-21  –          –      –  4,016   4,016   4,016    0        0        42

May-21  4,010  4,025  4,002  4,016   4,017   4,016   -1      328     1,767

Corn

Turnover: 401,185 lots, or 8.30 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  2,039  2,041  2,026  2,032   2,039   2,035   -4    7,504    22,746

Sep-20  2,065  2,070  2,053  2,062   2,067   2,059   -8  312,368   659,380

Nov-20  2,086  2,091  2,077  2,085   2,088   2,082   -6   11,364    30,723

Jan-21  2,106  2,114  2,099  2,108   2,109   2,105   -4   64,305   228,433

Mar-21  2,125  2,130  2,117  2,125   2,124   2,123   -1    1,605     3,918

May-21  2,145  2,148  2,136  2,142   2,144   2,141   -3    4,039    26,845

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,569,548 lots, or 44.40 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Jul-20  2,639  2,690  2,639  2,674   2,638   2,665   27      6,709     34,134

Aug-20  2,795  2,827  2,781  2,822   2,777   2,803   26     20,294     32,788

Sep-20  2,805  2,849  2,798  2,833   2,798   2,825   27  1,215,149  1,626,551

Nov-20  2,838  2,884  2,834  2,868   2,832   2,859   27     25,032     29,184

Dec-20  2,857  2,895  2,857  2,886   2,849   2,871   22      3,329      2,053

Jan-21  2,850  2,898  2,850  2,886   2,852   2,878   26    251,545    647,925

Mar-21  2,752  2,785  2,752  2,776   2,751   2,771   20        149      1,584

May-21  2,676  2,696  2,675  2,688   2,673   2,685   12     47,341    127,482

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,086,655 lots, or 53.18 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                          Interest

Jun-20  –          –      –  4,770   4,770   4,770    0          0         0

Jul-20  4,970  4,970  4,926  4,950   4,956   4,948   -8         12         9

Aug-20  –          –      –  4,940   4,828   4,940  112          0         2

Sep-20  4,938  4,938  4,850  4,916   4,878   4,896   18  1,002,000   413,052

Oct-20  4,794  4,794  4,724  4,754   4,746   4,754    8         52       343

Nov-20  4,756  4,756  4,716  4,738   4,732   4,736    4         19       178

Dec-20  4,756  4,778  4,746  4,768   4,780   4,760  -20         21       185

Jan-21  4,882  4,894  4,818  4,852   4,862   4,844  -18     84,075    97,462

Feb-21  –          –      –  4,942   4,942   4,942    0          0       113

Mar-21  4,996  4,996  4,968  4,968   4,956   4,976   20          3        17

Apr-21  –          –      –  4,912   4,912   4,912    0          0       154

May-21  5,018  5,024  4,952  4,984   4,998   4,972  -26        473     3,094

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 423,039 lots, or 23.94 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,590   5,590   5,590    0        0         5

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,646   5,646   5,646    0        0         2

Sep-20  5,710  5,714  5,622  5,644   5,680   5,650  -30  365,996   405,048

Nov-20  –          –      –  5,766   5,766   5,766    0        0       401

Dec-20  5,690  5,690  5,690  5,690   5,766   5,690  -76        9        25

Jan-21  5,766  5,768  5,672  5,708   5,738   5,704  -34   55,414   140,631

Mar-21  –          –      –  5,760   5,760   5,760    0        0        11

May-21  5,794  5,794  5,702  5,736   5,774   5,728  -46    1,620     5,499  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Posted in

Tagged keywords...