MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Thursday, July 09, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 9

Source: CME Group  

                Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity       Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL     July       Jul. 10, 2020               61   Jul 02, 2020

KC  HRW WHEAT   July       Jul. 10, 2020               26   Jul 07, 2020

WHEAT           July       Jul. 10, 2020               84   Jul 08, 2020

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jul 9

    For the week ended Jul 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA  

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat           326.1    -75.0    7560.2    7487.1   5304.7      0.0

  hrw            61.9      0.0    2833.4    3024.6   1825.6      0.0

  srw           149.6    -75.0     728.7    1025.7    610.8      0.0

  hrs            86.0      0.0    2171.3    1864.6   1583.8      0.0

  white          28.4      0.0    1516.6    1359.6   1105.5      0.0

  durum           0.2      0.0     310.2     212.5    179.0      0.0

corn            599.2    409.3   42912.7   49421.0   7945.8   4302.3

soybeans        952.2    382.1   45994.8   48532.3   8229.8   7318.9

soymeal         124.4     73.5   11187.7   11318.3   1905.6    442.4

soyoil           28.9      0.0    1218.2     813.4    239.7     11.0

upland cotton    43.8      6.7   17036.7   15316.0   4156.3   3496.8

pima cotton       2.8      3.6     577.2     728.9    121.5     37.5

sorghum          53.9    137.0    4210.5    1621.1    846.2    593.0

barley            0.0      0.0      41.7      51.7     40.2      0.0

rice             21.6      0.0    3332.9    3436.6    336.9     62.7

WHEAT                                                                                                 

General Comments:   Winter Wheat markets were higher as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and as the Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions.  The weather in Europe and Russia caused the rally despite good things happening here.  Russian producers are said to be disappointed in the yields and it has been dry in France and Britain.  Yield reports from the HRW region of the US have been variable, but generally a little better than expected, so USDA might raise its production estimates nest month.  The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts.  It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now.  Australia remains in good condition.  Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 532 September.  Support is at 500, 496, and 488 September, with resistance at 525, 530, and 553 September.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 470 and 496 September.  Support is at 450, 444, and 440 September, with resistance at 462, 468, and 473 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 531 and 547 September.  Support is at 515, 510, and 506 September, and resistance is at 524, 526, and 531 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Rice was lower and is threatening to break down on the daily charts once again.  Futures can continue to trade lower as the Texas and southern Louisiana harvests are just a few weeks away and the crops are developing under mostly very good conditions.  New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year.  The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice.  There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.  The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.  Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1186 September.  Support is at 1206, 1203, and 1192 September, with resistance at 1219, 1239, and 1241 September.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn was a little higher.  Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest this week to support prices, and the weather market is coming as there are some forecasts for hot and dry weather for the next week or two.  The ability of futures to hold rallies will depend on how much heat and for how long it stays dry in the Midwest.  There have also been problems with demand.  Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants.  The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling.  Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe.  Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. 

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 339, 334, and 332 September, and resistance is at 354, 356, and 361 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 278 and 266 September.  Support is at 285, 280, and 279 September, and resistance is at 292, 298, and 301 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were a little lower on no Chinese demand and on forecasts for showers later this week in the US Midwest.  China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal.  China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade.  Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies.  The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next couple of weeks.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 880, 872, and 868 August, and resistance is at 913, 915, and 921 August.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 292.00, 290.00, and 288.00 August, and resistance is at 300.00, 305.00, and 310.00 August.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2790, 2710, and 2680 August, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2980 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher on better demand ideas.  Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand.  Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic.  Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels.  Canola was lower on chart based selling and the price action in Chicago.  Canola was weaker on a stronger Canadian Dollar. The weather has been warmer the past few weeks to promote growth, but there is still too much moisture in some western areas. 

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 472.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 482.00, 484.00, and 485.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2350, 2340, and 2290 September, with resistance at 2430, 2440, and 2490 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
CornHRWSRWSoybeansSoybean MealSoybean Oil
July+52 Sep+145 Sep+40 Sep+59 JulyN/AN/A
August+54 Sep+40 Sep+64 Aug
September+59 Sep+45 Sep+63 Nov
  [JS1]   

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 8

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          462.30    -18.00    Nov 2020     up 1.60

Basis: Thunder Bay   494.10     15.00    Nov 2020     dn 1.20

Basis: Vancouver     499.10     20.00    Nov 2020     dn 1.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 9

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          607.50       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Aug           600.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          590.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   582.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          610.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Aug           602.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          592.50       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   585.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          585.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          515.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          2,465.00   +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          168.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.2605)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 09

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 358,380 lots, or 17.05 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jul-20  5,503  5,503  5,386  5,500   5,831   5,402  -429      308        94

Sep-20  4,737  4,849  4,728  4,846   4,733   4,799    66  326,856   166,209

Nov-20  4,345  4,390  4,340  4,373   4,333   4,371    38    1,833     2,026

Jan-21  4,277  4,327  4,275  4,313   4,277   4,304    27   28,350    57,429

Mar-21  4,333  4,338  4,314  4,332   4,294   4,325    31       82       221

May-21  4,306  4,340  4,295  4,330   4,295   4,323    28      951     4,304

Corn

Turnover: 667,733 lots, or 14.27 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  2,108   2,108   2,108    0        0         0

Sep-20  2,115  2,148  2,114  2,145   2,114   2,133   19  490,668   655,751

Nov-20  2,124  2,152  2,124  2,149   2,124   2,140   16   41,524    50,884

Jan-21  2,134  2,154  2,132  2,151   2,132   2,145   13  113,078   399,930

Mar-21  2,144  2,160  2,142  2,158   2,141   2,154   13    3,488     2,798

May-21  2,160  2,179  2,157  2,177   2,158   2,171   13   18,975   108,920

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,066,351 lots, or 30.98 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  2,750   2,750   2,750    0        0        423

Aug-20  2,888  2,898  2,880  2,890   2,890   2,888   -2    2,805      2,908

Sep-20  2,900  2,912  2,894  2,905   2,900   2,903    3  727,639  1,193,711

Nov-20  2,921  2,942  2,921  2,936   2,932   2,933    1   27,723     54,552

Dec-20  2,944  2,952  2,933  2,943   2,940   2,942    2   15,430      7,563

Jan-21  2,941  2,954  2,935  2,947   2,944   2,945    1  231,650    905,443

Mar-21  2,804  2,814  2,796  2,804   2,816   2,806  -10    2,094      2,838

May-21  2,753  2,761  2,740  2,750   2,756   2,749   -7   59,010    242,664

Palm Oil

Turnover: 922,358 lots, or 46.85 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,162   5,162   5,162    0        0         0

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,056   5,056   5,056    0        0         2

Sep-20  5,078  5,116  5,060  5,086   5,046   5,086   40  824,443   324,749

Oct-20  5,032  5,064  5,010  5,026   4,978   5,028   50    8,078     6,185

Nov-20  5,058  5,144  4,972  5,040   4,984   5,030   46    8,179     3,023

Dec-20  4,998  5,040  4,996  5,026   4,976   5,016   40    5,090     1,739

Jan-21  4,996  5,026  4,982  5,016   4,972   5,006   34   75,970   120,040

Feb-21  5,054  5,054  5,054  5,054   4,986   5,054   68        1       114

Mar-21  –          –      –  5,062   5,062   5,062    0        0        19

Apr-21  –          –      –  5,070   5,066   5,070    4        0       152

May-21  5,080  5,112  5,070  5,100   5,066   5,090   24      597     9,671

Jun-21  –          –      –  5,118   5,094   5,118   24        0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 396,516 lots, or 23.13 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,398   5,398   5,398    0        0         0

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,796   5,796   5,796    0        0         2

Sep-20  5,800  5,852  5,798  5,838   5,790   5,822   32  298,459   321,126

Nov-20  5,848  5,874  5,784  5,854   5,828   5,848   20    4,846     9,107

Dec-20  5,862  5,884  5,832  5,868   5,832   5,854   22    3,487     2,456

Jan-21  5,856  5,890  5,846  5,872   5,848   5,866   18   82,170   233,565

Mar-21  5,856  5,874  5,830  5,856   5,838   5,846    8    5,486       909

May-21  5,872  5,896  5,858  5,874   5,866   5,874    8    2,068    20,508  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Posted in

Tagged keywords...