MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Friday, July 10, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 10

Source: CME Group  

                Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity       Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL     July       Jul. 13, 2020               14   Jul 02, 2020

ROUGH RICE      July       Jul. 13, 2020               10   Jun 24, 2020

KC  HRW WHEAT   July       Jul. 13, 2020                5   Jul 07, 2020

WHEAT           July       Jul. 13, 2020                5   Jul 08, 2020

WHEAT                                                                                                 

General Comments:   Winter Wheat markets were mostly higher as the Winter Wheat harvest expanded north and as the Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions.  Only HRW futures settled near unchanged.  The weather in Europe and Russia caused the rally despite good things happening here.  Russian producers are said to be disappointed in the yields and it has been dry in France and Britain.  Yield reports from the HRW region of the US have been variable, but generally a little better than expected, so USDA might raise its production estimates nest month.  The Winter Wheat markets hold to bearish trends on the weekly charts.  It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now.  Australia remains in good condition.  Prices usually move lower and remain down through the harvest. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  China bought 130,000 tons of HRW and 190,000 tons of HRS yesterday.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives.  Support is at 506, 494, and 489 September, with resistance at 538, 545, and 555 September.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 470 and 496 September.  Support is at 450, 444, and 440 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 473 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 531 and 547 September.  Support is at 524, 515, and 510 September, and resistance is at 531, 538, and 540 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Rice was unchanged to a little higher in light volume trading.  Futures can continue to generally trade lower as the Texas and southern Louisiana harvests are just a few weeks away and the crops are developing under mostly very good conditions.  New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year.  The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice.  There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.  The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.  Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1186 September.  Support is at 1206, 1203, and 1192 September, with resistance at 1219, 1239, and 1241 September.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn was a little higher despite forecasts for rains over the next day or two.  Futures markets have had hot and dry weather in much of the Midwest this week to support prices, and the weather market is coming as there are some forecasts for hot and dry weather for the next week or two.  The ability of futures to hold rallies will depend on how much heat and for how long it stays dry in the Midwest.  There have also been problems with demand.  Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 80% to 85% of capacity kill rates in their plants.  The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling.  Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifter in most states and in Europe.  Demand for gasoline and ethanol has gotten a little stronger and should continue to improve over time. 

Overnight News:  China bought 1.365 million tons of US Corn yesterday.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 346, 339, and 334 September, and resistance is at 356, 361, and 365 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 278 and 266 September.  Support is at 285, 280, and 279 September, and resistance is at 296, 298, and 301 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were a little higher on better than expected export sales and the longer term weather outlooks.  No Chinese demand and on forecasts for showers later this week in the US Midwest were the primary negatives.  China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal.  China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade.  Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies.  The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time but forecasts call for hot and dry weather in the next couple of weeks.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 890, 880, and 872 August, and resistance is at 905, 913, and 915 August.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 296.00, 292.00, and 290.00 August, and resistance is at 300.00, 305.00, and 310.00 August.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2790, 2710, and 2680 August, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2980 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed higher on positive data from MPOB.  Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand.  Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic.  Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels.  Canola was lower on chart based selling and the price action in Chicago.  Canola was higher on Chicago price action. The weather has been warmer the past few weeks to promote growth, but there is still too much moisture in some western areas. 

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 472.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 484.00, 487.00, and 489.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2350, 2340, and 2290 September, with resistance at 2430, 2440, and 2490 September.

DJ Malaysia July 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 16.8% at 458,173 Metric Tons

  Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the July 1-10 period are estimated down 16.8% on month at 458,173 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Friday.

  The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

  (All figures in metric tons)

                        July 1-10       June 1-10

   RBD Palm Olein       144,423          264,854

   RBD Palm Oil          29,990           55,245

   RBD Palm Stearin      62,850           45,893

   Crude Palm Oil        81,325           64,404

   Total*               458,173          550,341

DJ Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.71M Tons; Up 25% -MPOB

  Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 25% on month at 1.71 million metric tons in June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:

                              June        May        Change                                                 On Month

  Crude Palm Oil Output  1,885,742  1,651,337  Up    14.19%

       Palm Oil Exports  1,709,752  1,368,746  Up    24.91%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports     94,144     75,049  Up    25.44%

       Palm Oil Imports     48,841     37,101  Up    31.64%

         Closing Stocks  1,901,021  2,029,579  Dn     6.33%

         Crude Palm Oil  1,027,035    991,740  Up     3.56%

     Processed Palm Oil    873,986  1,037,839  Dn    15.79%

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
CornHRWSRWSoybeansSoybean MealSoybean Oil
July+56 Sep+150 Sep+50 Sep+62 JulyN/AN/A
August+56 Sep+50 Sep+66 Aug
September+59 Sep+45 Sep+63 Nov
  [JS1]   

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 9

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          461.10    -18.00    Nov 2020     dn 1.20

Basis: Thunder Bay   496.40     15.00    Nov 2020     up 2.30

Basis: Vancouver     501.40     20.00    Nov 2020     up 2.30

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day  

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 10

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          612.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Aug           605.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          595.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   585.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          615.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Aug           607.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          597.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   587.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          585.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          515.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          2,475.00   +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

July          167.00     -01.00      Unquoted   –        –  

($1=MYR4.2645)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 10

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 264,964 lots, or 12.54 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,402   5,402   5,402    0        0        94

Sep-20  4,846  4,853  4,728  4,754   4,799   4,782  -17  238,064   136,952

Nov-20  4,379  4,384  4,300  4,330   4,371   4,342  -29    2,126     2,097

Jan-21  4,323  4,323  4,254  4,272   4,304   4,285  -19   23,117    57,993

Mar-21  4,332  4,337  4,256  4,256   4,325   4,289  -36      561       226

May-21  4,323  4,336  4,270  4,281   4,323   4,297  -26    1,096     4,630

Corn

Turnover: 596,065 lots, or 12.80 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  2,108   2,108   2,108    0        0         0

Sep-20  2,148  2,154  2,134  2,144   2,133   2,143   10  384,919   644,826

Nov-20  2,149  2,165  2,143  2,153   2,140   2,153   13   54,792    51,416

Jan-21  2,151  2,166  2,142  2,154   2,145   2,154    9  130,218   413,434

Mar-21  2,156  2,170  2,150  2,157   2,154   2,159    5    4,958     3,352

May-21  2,177  2,194  2,172  2,181   2,171   2,182   11   21,178   111,434

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,224,666 lots, or 35.77 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  2,750   2,750   2,750    0        0          0

Aug-20  2,888  2,920  2,888  2,915   2,888   2,913   25      915      2,324

Sep-20  2,913  2,933  2,906  2,919   2,903   2,918   15  882,143  1,181,811

Nov-20  2,941  2,962  2,933  2,948   2,933   2,947   14   29,993     57,145

Dec-20  2,953  2,970  2,940  2,952   2,942   2,955   13   12,903      7,593

Jan-21  2,955  2,974  2,944  2,956   2,945   2,957   12  248,253    891,210

Mar-21  2,810  2,823  2,805  2,811   2,806   2,812    6    1,958      3,095

May-21  2,756  2,770  2,751  2,761   2,749   2,761   12   48,501    249,149

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,252,828 lots, or 62.69 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                          Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,162   5,162   5,162    0          0         0

Aug-20  4,814  5,108  4,814  5,108   5,056   4,996  -60         10         4

Sep-20  5,084  5,092  4,954  4,956   5,086   5,008  -78  1,125,677   325,743

Oct-20  4,990  5,038  4,902  4,920   5,028   4,948  -80      6,181     6,435

Nov-20  4,982  5,044  4,916  4,936   5,030   4,958  -72      4,580     2,825

Dec-20  5,028  5,034  4,914  4,932   5,016   4,960  -56      3,835     1,408

Jan-21  5,006  5,032  4,906  4,912   5,006   4,952  -54    110,207   125,900

Feb-21  5,052  5,052  5,052  5,052   5,054   5,052   -2          1       115

Mar-21  5,064  5,064  5,064  5,064   5,062   5,064    2          1        19

Apr-21  –          –      –  5,070   5,070   5,070    0          0       152

May-21  5,094  5,106  4,990  4,996   5,090   5,026  -64      2,336    10,362

Jun-21  –          –      –  5,118   5,118   5,118    0          0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 530,880 lots, or 30.91 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,398   5,398   5,398    0        0         0

Aug-20  5,816  5,816  5,740  5,740   5,796   5,778  -18        2         2

Sep-20  5,838  5,880  5,764  5,776   5,822   5,814   -8  410,154   300,623

Nov-20  5,880  5,902  5,788  5,802   5,848   5,836  -12    5,175     9,175

Dec-20  5,876  5,902  5,796  5,810   5,854   5,844  -10    4,325     2,384

Jan-21  5,870  5,906  5,790  5,804   5,866   5,842  -24  103,823   227,326

Mar-21  5,870  5,888  5,784  5,792   5,846   5,830  -16    5,311       669

May-21  5,878  5,910  5,806  5,816   5,874   5,844  -30    2,090    21,209  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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