MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 16

Source: CME Group  

             Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity    Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

ROUGH RICE   July       Jul. 16, 2020              163   Jun 26, 2020

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jul 16

    For the week ended Jul 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA  

               wk’s net chg             total

               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat           764.4      0.0    8324.6    7834.5   5427.7      0.0

  hrw           349.7      0.0    3183.1    3152.2   1871.1      0.0

  srw            14.4      0.0     743.1    1114.3    535.5      0.0

  hrs           280.8      0.0    2452.1    1936.9   1680.0      0.0

  white         103.0      0.0    1619.7    1398.4   1151.1      0.0

  durum          16.5      0.0     326.7     232.6    190.0      0.0

corn            981.1    655.4   43489.8   49621.0   7508.6   5361.7

soybeans        313.0    767.6   46307.8   48660.1   7967.5   8086.5

soymeal         177.2     27.8   11364.9   11383.6   1878.4    470.2

soyoil            5.7      0.0    1223.9     825.7    242.8     11.0

upland cotton   -17.5     29.1   17019.3   15370.1   3827.2   3525.9

pima cotton       5.8      0.0     583.0     723.6    126.5     37.5

sorghum          72.7     53.0    4283.2    1649.2    848.3    646.0

barley           -3.0      0.0      38.7      51.8     36.9      0.0

rice             18.5     12.5    3351.4    3445.7    337.2     75.2

WHEAT                                                                                                 

General Comments:   Winter Wheat markets were higher as world prices held stronger.  There were rumors of Chinese buying including Soft Red Winter which is very high priced in the world market.  These rumors were not confirmed yet.  The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving forward and yield reports are still better than expected.  Spring Wheat is developing well.  Russian and French crops are still suffering stress and Russian yield reports have been disappointing to farmers there.  Good conditions are reported in much of Canada.  It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now.  Australia remains in good condition.  Argentina has been dry but is expected to get rains in the next week to 10 days.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 551 and 569 September.  Support is at 539, 533, and 521 September, with resistance at 552, 564, and 568 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 442, 440, and 432 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 473 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 517, 510, and 506 September, and resistance is at 531, 538, and 540 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Rice was mostly a little lower in consolidation trading.  New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year.  There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.  The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast but planting was more problematic in parts of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.  Ideas are that the long grain got planted and producers did not plant medium grain if some prevent planting was needed. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1190, 1183, and 1180 September, with resistance at 1210, 1213, and 1219 September.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn was a little higher in reaction to rallies in Wheat and Soybeans.  Corn is clearly the weakest market right now.  There were rains reported in some drier areas of Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri yesterday.  The area that is too dry in the Midwest is shrinking.  There have also been problems with demand.  Meats processors are back and are aiming to restore 05% of capacity kill rates in their plants.  The backlog of Cattle and Hogs will slowly disappear under this scenario and meats wholesale and retail prices are falling.  Ethanol demand is also improving as lockdown orders are lifted in most states and in Europe, but remains generally poor.  Many states are forced to backpedal on opening moves due to new outbreaks of the virus.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 314 September.  Support is at 322, 316, and 304 September, and resistance is at 336, 340, and 346 September.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 266 September.  Support is at 268, 265, and 262 September, and resistance is at 280, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were higher on renewed Chinese demand for US Soybeans.  China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal.  It has been very active this week.  However, those promises were thrown into doubt as the US announced it would not start Phase 2 negotiations at this time due to political problems with China.  Ideas are that China will have much less incentive to complete Phase 1 purchases.  China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade.  Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US and Argentina for additional supplies.  The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans at this time.  The NOPS crush data was stronger than expected.

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 865 August.  Support is at 882, 871, and 869 August, and resistance is at 890, 893, and 905 August.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 280.00 and 277.00 August.   Support is at 284.00, 279.00, and 276.00 August, and resistance is at 290.00, 292.00, and 296.00 August.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2830, 2780, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2890, 2910, and 2980 August.

Alerts History

  • 15-Jul-2020 11:00:06 AM – U.S. JUNE SOYBEAN CRUSH 167.263 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
  • 15-Jul-2020 11:00:06 AM – U.S. JUNE SOYOIL STOCKS 1.778 BILLION LBS – NOPA
  • 15-Jul-2020 11:00:06 AM – U.S. JUNE SOYMEAL EXPORTS 835,403 TONS – NOPA

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower in sympathy with lower petroleum values.  Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic, but the return of Coronavirus has made things much more difficult.  Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels.  Canola was lower in range trading.  Some Prairies areas got needed rain over the weekend and crops are considered in good condition.  The Canadian Dollar was stronger against the US Dollar.. 

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 475.00, 470.00, and 468.00 November, with resistance at 481.00, 484.00, and 487.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2530 October.  Support is at 2490, 2450, and 2390 October, with resistance at 2520, 2600, and 2650 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry.  Temperatures should average below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

July

+53 Sep

+145 Sep

+50 Sep

+61 July

N/A

N/A

August

+55 Sep

+40 Sep

+65 Aug

September

+57 Sep

+45 Sep

+69 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 15

WINNIPEG, July 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the

closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source:  ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          461.10    -13.00    Nov 2020     up  1.80

Basis: Thunder Bay   493.00     15.00    Nov 2020     dn  1.20

Basis: Vancouver     498.00     25.00    Nov 2020     dn  1.20

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 16

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           635.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          625.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   610.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar   607.50       n/a       Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           637.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          627.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   612.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar   610.00       n/a       Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           615.00       n/a       Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           540.00       n/a       Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug          2,620.00      n/a       Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           172.00       n/a       Unquoted   –        –  

($1=MYR4.2685)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 16

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 364,469 lots, or 17.11 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Sep-20  4,768  4,806  4,692  4,705   4,755   4,753   -2  316,505   154,297

Nov-20  4,333  4,346  4,296  4,310   4,314   4,313   -1      714     2,317

Jan-21  4,286  4,348  4,276  4,282   4,287   4,309   22   45,599    59,449

Mar-21  4,302  4,342  4,288  4,288   4,279   4,322   43      224       351

May-21  4,315  4,358  4,290  4,292   4,309   4,316    7    1,144     4,730

Jul-21  4,311  4,361  4,307  4,307   4,277   4,325   48      283       192

Corn

Turnover: 764,334 lots, or 16.46 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Sep-20  2,146  2,166  2,142  2,156   2,138   2,155   17  510,377   541,872

Nov-20  2,141  2,160  2,138  2,153   2,140   2,150   10   41,943    52,837

Jan-21  2,135  2,152  2,134  2,142   2,135   2,144    9  172,854   483,660

Mar-21  2,147  2,158  2,142  2,149   2,143   2,151    8    3,215     4,119

May-21  2,165  2,176  2,162  2,166   2,157   2,169   12   34,341   173,363

Jul-21  2,173  2,184  2,170  2,178   2,169   2,177    8    1,604       645

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,256,501 lots, or 36.15 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Aug-20  2,881  2,903  2,870  2,891   2,869   2,891   22      114      1,459

Sep-20  2,875  2,903  2,867  2,895   2,870   2,882   12  881,152  1,059,088

Nov-20  2,895  2,921  2,891  2,919   2,894   2,903    9   40,643     55,181

Dec-20  2,891  2,914  2,888  2,910   2,897   2,900    3   11,988      8,145

Jan-21  2,895  2,910  2,886  2,906   2,894   2,896    2  256,529    896,757

Mar-21  2,751  2,762  2,744  2,760   2,750   2,753    3    3,280      4,058

May-21  2,708  2,717  2,697  2,713   2,703   2,706    3   62,568    338,413

Jul-21  2,723  2,728  2,715  2,724   2,720   2,719   -1      227        174

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,914,292 lots, or 10.14 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                          Interest

Aug-20  5,870  5,870  5,500  5,668   5,584   5,620   36         18         4

Sep-20  5,298  5,382  5,226  5,302   5,246   5,308   62  1,713,751   348,694

Oct-20  5,202  5,294  5,156  5,206   5,174   5,234   60      7,367     7,078

Nov-20  5,246  5,280  5,148  5,212   5,162   5,216   54      5,481     2,416

Dec-20  5,164  5,256  5,126  5,192   5,144   5,192   48      5,074     1,331

Jan-21  5,160  5,246  5,108  5,178   5,130   5,176   46    179,328   133,704

Feb-21  5,260  5,262  5,228  5,228   5,082   5,250  168          3       112

Mar-21  5,200  5,300  5,200  5,216   5,130   5,258  128         13        17

Apr-21  5,170  5,170  5,170  5,170   5,138   5,170   32          1       151

May-21  5,200  5,290  5,154  5,228   5,180   5,226   46      3,256    11,808

Jun-21  –          –      –  5,166   5,166   5,166    0          0         0

Jul-21  –          –      –  5,166   5,166   5,166    0          0         0

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 677,023 lots, or 40.30 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Aug-20  –          –      –  6,038   6,038   6,038    0        0         2

Sep-20  5,922  6,028  5,880  5,952   5,920   5,958   38  497,693   292,799

Nov-20  5,930  6,026  5,894  5,950   5,920   5,962   42    5,914     9,137

Dec-20  5,940  6,010  5,898  5,964   5,914   5,964   50    5,764     2,530

Jan-21  5,918  5,984  5,878  5,936   5,916   5,934   18  153,549   253,907

Mar-21  5,894  5,962  5,860  5,924   5,898   5,914   16   10,385       542

May-21  5,896  5,948  5,854  5,920   5,904   5,906    2    3,718    25,668

Jul-21  –          –      –  5,886   5,824   5,886   62        0         0

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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