MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS 

Jack Scoville 

Wednesday, August 05, 2020 

Price Futures Group, CBOT  

Chicago, IL  

(312) 264-4322  

jscoville@pricegroup.com 

JSL, SA de CV  

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net 

JSL, SA 

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024   

jslsa@comcast.net 

DJ U.S. June Grain Exports-Aug 5 

    In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt  

in pounds.  /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department  

of Commerce.  

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.  

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.  

                               ——- In Kilograms ——-  

                         Jun 20         May 20         Apr 20         Jun 19  

Barley                2,047,000      2,188,097      1,550,244      4,244,000  

Corn /1           5,035,249,000  5,700,116,000  5,057,455,000  3,068,898,000  

Sorghum             576,822,000    809,404,000    802,729,000    316,164,000  

Oats                  1,926,717      2,463,472      2,725,657      3,974,738  

Rye                     885,579        989,810              0        511,222  

Wheat /1          2,283,170,928  2,347,780,373  2,375,754,205  2,156,254,975  

  wheat flour /1     23,776,786     22,937,338     25,421,406     20,788,616  

Malt                 18,055,175     15,901,428     12,130,043     33,663,862   

                            ——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-  

                         Jun 20         May 20         Apr 20         Jun 19  

Barley                   94,017        100,497         71,201        194,923  

Corn /1             198,226,963    224,401,352    199,101,165    120,815,938  

Sorghum              22,708,246     31,864,501     31,601,720     12,446,699  

Oats                    132,739        169,718        187,781        273,835  

Rye                      34,863         38,967              0         20,126  

Wheat /1             83,891,310     86,265,276     87,293,128     79,227,995  

  wheat flour /1        524,188        505,682        560,446        458,311  

Malt                 39,804,854     35,056,654     26,742,172     74,216,124  

1/Includes commercial and donated.  

DJ U.S. June Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Aug 5 

   In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in  

short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.  

(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.  

Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.  

                               ——- In Kilograms ——-  

                        Jun 20          May 20          Apr 20        Jun 19  

soybeans          1,799,783,106   1,966,536,425   2,163,874,345 3,193,552,152  

soyoil               76,056,294     162,305,113     104,437,136    43,269,288  

  crude              64,082,208     146,282,800      87,695,281    33,517,763  

  refined                46,033       1,013,597       3,665,050       113,445  

  other/1            11,542,108      14,692,479      12,827,083     9,280,684  

  hydrogenated          385,945         316,237         249,722       357,396  

cottonseed oil        2,460,270       2,232,495       6,719,262     4,018,852  

  crude                   5,059          32,663         357,000             0  

  refined             1,078,630       1,009,843       4,875,431     3,268,241  

  other/1             1,376,581       1,189,989       1,486,831       750,611  

  hydrogenated                0               0               0             0  

sunseeds                102,264          60,174         227,385     2,284,841  

sunseed oil           3,197,273       3,926,423       3,463,941     8,687,316  

rapeseed              7,979,912       3,332,602       6,411,264    24,595,212  

rapeseed oil         14,442,004       8,846,553      11,585,348     8,889,462  

   crude              8,717,839       1,010,722       3,873,428     3,959,998  

   refined            5,724,165       7,835,831       7,711,920     4,929,464  

linseed meal             69,199         233,169         170,562        66,719  

cottonseed meal       8,604,008       6,731,589       7,481,237     4,744,546  

soymeal             823,935,074     741,211,036     861,271,705   593,573,569  

soymeal/flour       237,186,756     235,502,689     228,907,866   220,250,941  

soymeal hulls        10,583,000      16,721,000      14,306,000     9,082,000  

lard                  1,088,778         460,435       1,112,013     5,566,310  

edible tallow         9,107,179       9,976,092       9,587,544     9,760,551  

inedible tallow      17,423,721      23,625,363      16,866,889    23,033,985  

ch white grease          77,792               0               0       499,113   

                         ——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-  

                         May 20          May 20          Apr 20        Jun 19  

soybeans             66,130,030      72,257,103      79,507,956   117,341,750  

soyoil              167,675,455     357,821,585     230,244,512    95,392,468  

  crude             141,277,110     322,498,425     193,335,033    73,894,031  

  refined               101,485       2,234,599       8,080,054       250,103  

  other/1            25,445,997      32,391,377      28,278,882    20,460,409  

  hydrogenated          850,863         697,183         550,543       787,923  

cottonseed oil        5,423,968       4,921,810      14,813,440     8,860,054  

  crude                  11,153          72,010         787,050             0  

  refined             2,377,973       2,226,323      10,748,487     7,205,239  

  other/1             3,034,842       2,623,477       3,277,902     1,654,814  

  hydrogenated                0               0               0             0  

sunseeds                225,454         132,661         501,298     5,037,213  

sunseed oil           7,048,782       8,656,282       7,636,684    19,152,257  

rapeseed             17,592,698       7,347,131      14,134,420    54,223,170  

rapeseed oil         31,839,174      19,503,314      25,541,325    19,597,912  

   crude             19,219,548       2,228,261       8,539,448     8,730,303  

   refined           12,619,626      17,275,053      17,001,876    10,867,610  

linseed meal                 76             257             188            74  

cottonseed meal           9,484           7,420           8,247         5,230  

soymeal                 908,224         817,037         949,380       654,296  

soymeal flour/me        261,451         259,595         252,325       242,783  

soymeal hulls            11,666          18,432          15,770        10,011  

lard                  2,400,345       1,015,086       2,451,569    12,271,615  

edible tallow        20,077,896      21,993,522      21,136,920    21,518,335  

inedible tallow      38,412,736      52,085,019      37,185,131    50,781,253  

ch white grease         171,502               0               0     1,100,356  

DJ U.S. June Grain Imports-Aug 5 

   In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to  

pounds by Dow Jones.  

                           —-Jun 2020—-                —-May 2020—-  

                             kilograms          pounds       kilograms          pounds  

durum wheat                          0               0         164,341         362,372  

spring wheat                 6,260,185      13,803,708       3,738,582       8,243,573  

winter wheat                 1,648,783       3,635,567       2,069,185       4,562,553  

wheat/meslin                26,246,137      57,872,732      32,957,346      72,670,948  

TOTAL WHEAT                 34,155,105      75,312,007      38,929,454      85,839,446  

barley                       3,604,929       7,948,868       2,502,446       5,517,893  

oats                          195,869         431,891         440,347         970,965   

corn                        22,730,295      50,120,300      55,845,344     123,138,984  

other corn                   4,063,296       8,959,568       3,500,417       7,718,419  

TOTAL CORN                  26,793,591      59,079,868      59,345,761     130,857,403  

DJ U.S. Jun Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Aug 5 

   In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds  

by Dow Jones.   

                           —-Jun 2020—-                —-May 2020—-  

                             kilograms          pounds       kilograms          pounds  

coconut oil                 29,429,369      64,891,759      36,501,316      80,485,402  

palm kernel oil             33,979,589      74,924,994      21,436,027      47,266,440  

palm oil                   136,825,237     301,699,648      97,104,743     214,115,958  

soybean                     42,552,046      93,827,261      28,736,610      63,364,225  

soymeal                              0               0               0               0  

soyoil                      11,426,440      25,195,300      11,048,278      24,361,453  

rapeseed oil  

 edible                    148,021,664     326,387,769     160,868,445     354,714,921  

rapeseed oil,  

 inedible                            0               0          90,396         199,323  

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 5 

Source: CME Group   

               Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade  

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available  

SOYBEAN MEAL   August     Aug. 06, 2020              219   Jul 30, 2020  

SOYBEAN OIL    August     Aug. 06, 2020              142   Jul 29, 2020  

WHEAT          

General Comments:   Winter Wheat markets were lower.  News that Russian yields were much improved from early in the harvest pushed Wheat lower yesterday.  Spring Wheat was developing under good growing conditions.  Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected.  Soft Red Winter yields are high.  It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected.  Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions.  Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains in most areas.  About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry. 

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 491 and 411 September.  Support is at 494, 488, and 484 September, with resistance at 517, 519, and 529 September.  Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 415 and 411 September.  Support is at 418, 412, and 406 September, with resistance at 432, 438, and 447 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 494, 478, and 468 September.  Support is at 500, 498, and 492 September, and resistance is at 506, 512, and 520 September. 

RICE  

General Comments  Rice was slightly lower after spending much of the trading session with higher prices.  It was a quiet day.  The harvest is active near the Gulf Coast, but rains are being reported to interrupt progress.  New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year.  The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good.  The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice.  There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.  The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.  Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1148, 1135, and 1120 September, with resistance at 1170, 1176, and 1183 September. 

DJ Thai Rice Export Prices Jump on Baht Strength — Market Talk 

     0239 GMT – Thai rice export prices increased due mainly to the Thai baht’s strength and the need to cover foreign exchange risk, says the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a note. It adds that rice exporters continued fulfilling contracted shipments of white and parboiled rice to African countries and are continuing to receive new inquiries from foreign buyers as the price difference between Thai and Vietnamese white rice shrank. Thai 100% white rice averaged $471 a metric ton in the week to July 29, up 1%-2% from the week before. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)  

CORN AND OATS                      

General Comments  Corn was lower and fell to new contract lows.  Ideas of huge yields from the US crop this year have futures under pressure.  Rains fell in many of the drier areas of the Midwest again last week and greatly benefitted the crops.  It has turned cooler and is still wet and is considered good for kernel fill.  About 15% of the Midwest is still too dry.  Trends are down in Corn.  Meats processors are back and are operating at close to capacity.  Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable.  Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol, but ethanol demand has been increasing.  US prices are high in the world market so export sales of Corn are expected to be less.   

Overnight News:   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 299 September.  Support is at 307, 302, and 299 September, and resistance is at 315, 318, and 322 September.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 262 and 249 September.  Support is at 270, 267, and 265 September, and resistance is at 278, 280, and 284 September. 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS   

General Comments:  Soybeans were lower on great growing conditions for the US crop and no new demand reports.  The market keeps worrying about new sales to China as tensions between the US and China grow.  China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal.  Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries.  China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade.  Brazil prices are higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies.  The US weather is considered good for growing Soybeans with cooler temperatures and beneficial rains.  About 15% of the Midwest is still too dry. 

Overnight News:  China bought 192,000 tons of US Soybeans

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 866 August.  Support is at 881, 871, and 867 August, and resistance is at 903, 911, and 917 August.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 278.00 and 272.00 August.   Support is at 282.00, 281.00, and 279.00 August, and resistance is at 286.00, 289.00, and 293.00 August.  Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3300 August.  Support is at 3090, 3040, and 3020 August, with resistance at 3190, 3210, and 3230 August. 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL          

General Comments:  Palm Oil closed lower last week on profit taking after news of renewed demand interest from India and China and on reports of less production from Malaysia and Indonesia.  It was higher on Monday on Chicago price action and strong export data for July released by the private sources.  Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production.  Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand.  Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic.  Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels.  Canola was mixed.  Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies.  The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.   

Overnight News:     

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 488.00, 485.00, and 482.00 November, with resistance at 494.00, 496.00, and 499.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2850, 2910, and 3140 October.  Support is at 2720, 2690, and 2640 October, with resistance at 2810, 2830, and 2840 October. 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Periods of showers in all areas.  Temperatures should average below normal 

US Gulf Cash Basis 
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil 
August +47 Sep +150 Sep +60 Sep +73 Aug N/A N/A 
September +51 Sep +60 Sep +72 Nov 
October +49 Dec +65 Dec +71 Nov 
  [JS1]    

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 4 

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices  

from ICE Futures for Aug. 4, 2020.  

     Source:  ICE Futures  

CANOLA  

1 Canada NCC Best Bid  

                Spot Price    Basis   Contract     Change  

*Par Region         475.40   -16.10   Nov 2020   up  1.40  

Track Thunder Bay   504.80    14.00   Nov 2020   dn  0.70  

Track Vancouver     515.80    25.00   Nov 2020   dn  0.70  

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.  

*Quote for previous day   

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or  

204-414-9084)  

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 5 

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.  

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Aug           710.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Sept          702.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Oct/Nov/Dec   665.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Jan/Feb/Mar   647.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Aug           712.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Sept          705.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Oct/Nov/Dec   667.50     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

Jan/Feb/Mar   650.00     -07.50      Unquoted   –        –  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Aug           695.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Aug           602.50       0.00      Unquoted   –        –  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Aug          2,870.00    -30.00      Unquoted   –        –  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia  

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded  

Aug           182.00     -02.00      Unquoted   –        –   

($1=MYR4.1900)  

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 05 

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 324,918 lots, or 14.97 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open  

                                    Settle                        Interest  

Sep-20  4,800  4,800  4,611  4,644   4,779   4,683  -96  262,646   117,730  

Nov-20  4,364  4,364  4,266  4,274   4,348   4,295  -53    1,676     2,454  

Jan-21  4,346  4,355  4,251  4,264   4,338   4,285  -53   58,947    59,048  

Mar-21  4,331  4,331  4,254  4,264   4,328   4,286  -42      293       228  

May-21  4,347  4,356  4,281  4,286   4,344   4,296  -48    1,124     4,537  

Jul-21  4,346  4,346  4,278  4,288   4,347   4,304  -43      232       401  

Corn  

Turnover: 678,379 lots, or 15.45 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open  

                                    Settle                        Interest  

Sep-20  2,305  2,310  2,283  2,285   2,310   2,296  -14  309,979   268,156  

Nov-20  2,268  2,277  2,259  2,263   2,268   2,268    0   22,394    54,954  

Jan-21  2,257  2,264  2,245  2,249   2,255   2,253   -2  282,974   890,923  

Mar-21  2,288  2,288  2,265  2,273   2,276   2,276    0   10,610    13,496  

May-21  2,291  2,296  2,277  2,287   2,291   2,287   -4   42,424   297,815  

Jul-21  2,312  2,323  2,304  2,310   2,317   2,313   -4    9,998    32,968  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 1,501,508 lots, or 43.24 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open  

                                    Settle                         Interest  

Aug-20  2,881  3,110  2,856  3,108   2,909   2,955   46        6      1,000  

Sep-20  2,900  2,914  2,870  2,871   2,920   2,889  -31  399,127    643,024  

Nov-20  2,925  2,935  2,890  2,893   2,939   2,910  -29   74,164     53,891  

Dec-20  2,926  2,937  2,893  2,896   2,945   2,911  -34   38,938      5,623  

Jan-21  2,926  2,929  2,884  2,888   2,937   2,901  -36  830,226  1,232,530  

Mar-21  2,772  2,774  2,747  2,748   2,778   2,754  -24    2,133      4,610  

May-21  2,736  2,736  2,711  2,714   2,737   2,719  -18  156,856    629,175  

Jul-21  2,745  2,745  2,731  2,731   2,750   2,740  -10       58        622  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 1,280,143 lots, or 74.99 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open  

                                    Settle                        Interest  

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,748   5,748   5,748    0        0         0  

Sep-20  5,952  5,976  5,842  5,886   5,900   5,918   18  983,905   268,138  

Oct-20  5,800  5,842  5,736  5,772   5,768   5,798   30   23,736     8,331  

Nov-20  5,764  5,764  5,642  5,676   5,706   5,706    0   10,808     3,305  

Dec-20  5,740  5,740  5,614  5,648   5,678   5,672   -6    8,640     1,226  

Jan-21  5,678  5,688  5,580  5,602   5,648   5,636  -12  248,973   201,252  

Feb-21  5,616  5,616  5,616  5,616   5,654   5,616  -38        1       119  

Mar-21  –          –      –  5,618   5,618   5,618    0        0        18  

Apr-21  –          –      –  5,560   5,560   5,560    0        0       151  

May-21  5,590  5,606  5,518  5,534   5,582   5,558  -24    4,067    14,533  

Jun-21  5,604  5,604  5,550  5,550   5,562   5,570    8       13         2  

Jul-21  –          –      –  5,584   5,584   5,584    0        0         3  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 859,256 lots, or 54.61 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open  

                                    Settle                        Interest  

Aug-20  –          –      –  6,086   6,086   6,086    0        0         1  

Sep-20  6,468  6,480  6,320  6,332   6,466   6,396  -70  393,615   205,009  

Nov-20  6,460  6,480  6,324  6,344   6,462   6,398  -64   17,229    10,645  

Dec-20  6,448  6,448  6,298  6,320   6,438   6,364  -74    4,175     1,809  

Jan-21  6,400  6,420  6,258  6,282   6,408   6,324  -84  411,744   447,427  

Mar-21  6,336  6,344  6,174  6,230   6,336   6,248  -88    7,995       445  

May-21  6,300  6,300  6,154  6,188   6,300   6,204  -96   24,478    62,215  

Jul-21  6,292  6,292  6,202  6,222   6,140   6,256  116       20         5   

Notes:  

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;  

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;  

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;  

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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