MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 15

Source: CME Group

               Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity       Month       Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL   September   Sep. 16, 2020               57   Sep 14, 2020

SOYBEAN OIL     September   Sep. 16, 2020               33   Sep 14, 2020

ROUGH RICE     September   Sep. 16, 2020               3   Jul 28, 2020

CORN           September   Sep. 16, 2020             276   Sep 14, 2020

KC HRW WHEAT   September   Sep. 16, 2020               6   Sep 11, 2020

SOYBEAN         September   Sep. 16, 2020               11   Sep 09, 2020

WHEAT           September   Sep. 16, 2020               60   Sep 14, 2020

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 14

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED

THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,

COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 10, 2020

— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS

             ———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR

GRAIN     09/10/2020 09/03/2020 09/12/2019   TO DATE     TO DATE

BARLEY             0       1,996         49       5,727       3,036

CORN         878,907     887,889     423,129   1,150,827     895,139

FLAXSEED           0         72           0         389           48

MIXED               0           0           0           0           0

OATS               0         48           0         948         299

RYE                 0           0           0           0           0

SORGHUM       72,465         144    45,857       72,561       79,399

SOYBEANS   1,283,936   1,396,077     668,496   1,849,421   1,241,963

SUNFLOWER           0          0           0           0           0

WHEAT         637,226     699,310     517,966   8,099,176   7,530,003

Total       2,872,534   2,985,536   1,655,497   11,179,049   9,749,887

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress

Date

6-Sep

30-Aug

2019

Avg

Cotton Bolls Opening

47

37

51

45

Cotton Harvested

6

8

8

Corn Dented

89

79

64

82

Corn Mature

41

25

16

32

Corn Harvested

5

3

5

Soybeans Dropping Leaves

37

20

13

31

Sorghum Coloring

eighty five

74

75

81

Sorghum Mature

thirty nine

29

32

39

Sorghum Harvested

twenty three

21

23

26

Peanuts Harvested

Jan-00

4

4

Rice Harvested

34

26

41

47

Spring Wheat Harvested

92

82

75

92

Barley Harvested

95

85

86

94

Winter Wheat Planted

10

5

6

8

Crop Condition

Very Poor

Poor

Fair

Good

Excellent

Cotton This Week

7

20

28

36

9

Cotton Last Week

11

16

28

36

9

Cotton Last Year

3

14

42

34

7

Corn This Week

5

10

25

46

14

Corn Last Week

5

9

25

46

15

Corn Last Year

4

10

31

44

11

Soybeans This Week

3

8

26

50

13

Soybeans Last Week

3

7

25

52

13

Soybeans Last Year

4

10

32

45

9

Sorghum This Week

6

11

31

40

12

Sorghum Last Week

6

11

34

37

12

Sorghum Last Year

1

6

28

51

14

Rice This Week

1

4

23

56

16

Rice Last Week

1

3

18

61

17

Rice Last Year

1

5

25

47

22

Peanuts This Week

2

6

21

57

14

Peanuts Last Week

1

4

22

60

13

Peanuts Last Year

2

7

30

55

6

Pastures and Ranges This Week

17

25

34

22

2

Pastures and Ranges Last Week

19

27

32

20

2

Pastures and Ranges Last Year

6

16

31

39

8

WHEAT        

General CommentsWinter Wheat markets were a little higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat closed a little lower. Winter Wheat futures rallied with firm world prices. Prices in Russia in particular have been stronger in the past couple of weeks. Larger world ending stocks estimates from USDA reflect larger production estimates in Australia and unchanged production estimates in Russia. Less production is likely in Europe and Argentina due to drought. About half of Argentine growing areas are affected as was much of France. The next crop is being planted now in northern parts of the world. Conditions are improved in the US after some rains fell in the Great Plains. The Midwest has had god rains although some areas in the southern Midwest have not gotten much rain recently. It is also too dry for planting in parts of Ukraine and southern Russia. There is still plenty of time for rains to start planting in the latter two areas as well as in US Winter Wheat areas.  

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 530, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 539, 527, and 516 December, with resistance at 550, 557, and 560 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 467, 465, and 463 December, with resistance at 480, 485, and 490 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 505 December. Support is at 525, 519, and 515 December, and resistance is at 535, 539, and 544 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was lower as USDA even as Hurricane Sally began to bear down on the Gulf Coast. It is expected to come onshore near the Mississippi-Louisiana state line and could bring excessive rainfall to crops in Mississippi. The rest of the growing areas should be spared any real dangerous weather, Reports indicate that export and domestic demand has not been real strong to start out the new crop year. Exporters and domestic mills are thought to be holding back on purchases for as long as possible due to the current relatively high prices.      

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1191 November. Support is at 1204, 1197, and 1188 November, with resistance at 1220, 1231, and 1237 November.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments: Corn was slightly higher and followed the other markets. Corn harvest has started in the south but there are no yield reports yet. The market acts as if all of the bullish news is in the market already, but there are still chances for prices to move higher over time. Chinese buying will need to be watched. Both China and USDA put Chinese imports at 7.0 million tons for the crop year but many in the trade feel this is too low. China has seen weather damage to a large potion of the crop areas this year. Damage came earlier in the year to southern growing areas and is happening now in northeast growing areas due to typhoons tht have hit the region. The US Midwest weather is quiet this week and harvesting will be starting soon. The harvest weather should be good but there was damage earlier to the crops from drought and the Derecho winds in Iowa and northern Illinois.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 374 December. Support is at 364, 363, and 359 December, and resistance is at 371, 374, and 377 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 269, 265, and 262 December, and resistance is at 274, 279, and 282 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher while Soybean Meal closed lower. Soybean Oil was supported by strength in world vegetable oils prices and news that the EPA will not give any more wavers to refiners of petroleum products so that they would need to incorporate more ethanol and bio fuels in the blends. Soybean Meal prices were hurt on ideas that more Soybean Oil production would create more Soybean Meal as well. Soybeans were supported by reports and ideas of strong demand. Much of the demand until now has been from China. The trade generally expects China to shift its buying back to Brazil in the near future, but USDA suggests that China could continue to buy here a little longer than expected. World ending stocks estimates were neutral when compared to trade expectations but were lower than last month. That is due mostly to the lower US production estimates.

Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soyberans and unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 982, 967, and 959 November, and resistance is at 1009, 1012, and 1024 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 322.00 October. Support is at 315.00, 308.00, and 306.00 October, and resistance is at 321.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3480, 3510, and 3650 October. Support is at 3390, 3320, and 3260 October, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher on strength in outside markets and in a bigger than expected jump in the export pace. Production ideas are turning seasonally higher as trees enter a peak production period over the next few months. Most importers seem to have enough stocks on hand and the Coronavirus pandemic is keeping overall demand on the lighter side. Canola was higher. Canola closed higher on reports of freezing temperatures last week in the Canadian Prairies. The freeze extended into parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota as well. It is possible that a significant part of the Canola crop got hurt during the freeze event. Higher futures in Chicago also supported the market. Farmers there have withdrawn from the market and speculators are buying.

Overnight News:  SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 745,565 tons, from 664,392 tons last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 780,305 tons, from 694,292 tons last month.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 524.00, 531.00, and 536.00 November. Support is at 515.00, 512.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 524.00, 527.00, and 530.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2950 and 3140 November. Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2760 November, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2970 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

September

+49 Dec

+159 Dec

+65 Sep

+80 Nov

+15 Dec

N/A

October

+60 Dec

+65 Dec

+69 Nov

November

+63 Dec

+65 Dec

+77 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 14

WINNIPEG, Sept. 14 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures. Source: ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region         481.30   -36.10   Nov 2020   up 7.60

Basis: Thunder Bay   535.30     12.00   Nov 2020   up 5.90

Basis: Vancouver     549.30     24.00   Nov 2020   up 5.90

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 15

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

             Offer     Change     Bid       Change   Traded

Sept         760.00     +12.50     Unquoted   –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec   737.50     +05.00     Unquoted   –       –

Jan/Feb/Mar   717.50     +12.50     Unquoted   –       –

Apr/May/Jun   702.50     +12.50     Unquoted   –       –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

             Offer     Change     Bid       Change   Traded

Sept         762.50     +12.50     Unquoted   –       –

Oct/Nov/Dec   740.00     +05.00     Unquoted   –       –

Jan/Feb/Mar   720.00     +12.50     Unquoted   –       –

Apr/May/Jun   705.00     +12.50     Unquoted   –       –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

             Offer     Change     Bid       Change   Traded

Sept          755.00     +10.00     Unquoted   –       –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

             Offer     Change     Bid       Change   Traded

Sept         675.00     +10.00     Unquoted   –       –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

             Offer     Change     Bid       Change   Traded

Sept         2,970.00   +20.00     Unquoted   –       –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

             Offer     Change     Bid       Change   Traded

Sept         193.00     00.00     Unquoted   –       –

($1=MYR4.130)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 15

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 355,483 lots, or 16.20 billion yuan

       Open   High   Low Close   Prev. Settle Ch.     Vol     Open

                                   Settle                       Interest

Nov-20 4,453 4,570 4,445 4,548   4,466   4,523   57     636     1,957

Jan-21 4,492 4,599 4,492 4,590   4,486   4,556   70 341,081   155,571

Mar-21 4,539 4,610 4,522 4,606   4,505   4,572   67   1,967     2,867

May-21 4,552 4,640 4,552 4,640   4,547   4,602   55   10,963   11,156

Jul-21 4,586 4,658 4,580 4,642   4,566   4,618   52     788     1,439

Sep-21 4,616 4,685 4,553 4,622   4,566   4,638   72       48       10

Corn

Turnover: 1,125,327 lots, or 27.17 billion yuan

       Open   High   Low Close   Prev. Settle Ch.     Vol       Open

                                   Settle                         Interest

Nov-20 2,396 2,403 2,364 2,374   2,386   2,381   -5   76,671     29,926

Jan-21 2,424 2,433 2,391 2,402   2,419   2,409 -10 854,179 1,380,209

Mar-21 2,443 2,457 2,415 2,424   2,441   2,434   -7   13,898     26,924

May-21 2,450 2,470 2,430 2,441   2,457   2,449   -8 124,120   462,822

Jul-21 2,465 2,476 2,443 2,454   2,462   2,460   -2   52,404     78,616

Sep-21 2,488 2,500 2,445 2,479   2,462   2,481   19   4,055     3,228

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,559,657 lots, or 47.99 billion yuan

       Open   High   Low Close   Prev. Settle Ch.       Vol       Open

                                   Settle                          Interest

Nov-20 3,101 3,115 3,067 3,093   3,086   3,094   8     61,817     61,126

Dec-20 3,104 3,124 3,078 3,103   3,104   3,108   4     1,505     1,587

Jan-21 3,114 3,135 3,092 3,116   3,111   3,118   7 1,131,486 1,581,386

Mar-21 2,992 3,010 2,971 2,995   2,995   2,996   1     18,563     21,085

May-21 2,928 2,950 2,916 2,935   2,931   2,937   6   283,334   849,479

Jul-21 2,937 2,954 2,914 2,942   2,936   2,938   2     29,791     17,260

Aug-21 2,983 2,994 2,961 2,981   2,986   2,981   -5     9,209     7,123

Sep-21 3,000 3,000 2,954 2,973   2,986   2,976 -10     23,952     19,813

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,024,597 lots, or 62.36 billion yuan

       Open   High   Low Close   Prev. Settle Ch.     Vol     Open

                                   Settle                       Interest

Oct-20 6,204 6,348 6,194 6,264   6,174   6,264   90       99     1,540

Nov-20 6,196 6,290 6,130 6,218   6,118   6,228 110   11,335     4,450

Dec-20 6,120 6,174 6,078 6,090   5,958   6,116 158   41,827       739

Jan-21 6,088 6,152 6,054 6,076   5,984   6,090 106 808,801   470,942

Feb-21 6,100 6,122 6,028 6,046   5,938   6,062 124 131,768   16,895

Mar-21 6,036 6,096 6,002 6,016   5,938   6,026   88   9,688     2,899

Apr-21 –         –     – 5,904   5,778   5,904 126     144       152

May-21 5,946 6,008 5,906 5,920   5,846   5,944   98   20,864   65,904

Jun-21 –         –     – 5,824   5,824   5,824   0       0         3

Jul-21 –         –     – 5,854   5,854   5,854   0       24         3

Aug-21 –         –     – 5,870   5,870   5,870   0       0         0

Sep-21 5,800 5,918 5,800 5,860   5,870   5,868   -2       47        42

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 705,104 lots, or 49.07 billion yuan

       Open   High   Low Close   Prev. Settle Ch.     Vol     Open

                                   Settle                       Interest

Nov-20 6,990 7,084 6,956 6,976   6,910   6,992   82   11,250     5,462

Dec-20 6,988 7,062 6,966 6,974   6,898   7,004 106       77       312

Jan-21 6,978 7,054 6,954 6,968   6,914   6,990   76 567,970   641,664

Mar-21 6,954 7,022 6,932 6,938   6,856   6,962 106   14,981     6,961

May-21 6,790 6,880 6,780 6,790   6,742   6,812   70   65,077   191,827

Jul-21 6,768 6,824 6,728 6,746   6,696   6,762   66   44,685     6,083

Aug-21 –         –     – 6,686   6,686   6,686   0     790       13

Sep-21 6,834 6,834 6,700 6,702   6,686   6,736   50     274       226

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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