Morning Softs Comments

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was higher as USDA cut production more than expected.  It also cut demand to leave ending stocks unchanged.  World data showed increased stocks for the market and were negative.  Trends turned up with the price action yesterday and follow through buying is possible into next week.  Conditions in the Texas Panhandle have improved with some recent showers and ideas are that production potential had been stabilized.  Texas crops have been hurt by continued hot and dry weather, although the Panhandle region has seen some rains lately.  It has been a relentless move lower since April and the entire down move now extends to the early summer of 2018.  Traders are anticipating bearish USDA reports this week.    Production is expected to be lower due to earlier bad weather in the Texas Panhandle.  Demand could be cut even more as export demand in general has been weak and ending stocks for the current and the next crop years could be increased.  Demand remains a real problem for the market as export sales overall have been poor.  The world market remains quiet with very limited Chinese buying interest anywhere.

Overnight News:  The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see dry conditions.  Temperatures should be mostly above normal.  Texas will have showers this week and a dry weekend.  Temperatures will be variable.  The USDA average price is now 55.66 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,438 ba1es, from 12,274 bales yesterday.  USDA said that net weekly Upland Cotton export sales were 74,600 bales this year and 500 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 3,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 6590, 6650, and 6910 December.  Support is at 6170, 6020, and 5980 December, with resistance of 6290, 6400, and 6470 December.

 

Cotton Area Planted and Harvested by Type – States and United States: 2018 and 2019

[Includes updates to planted and harvested area previously published]

——————————————————————————————

:           Area planted            :          Area harvested

State      :———————————————————————–

:      2018       :      2019       :      2018       :     2019 1/

——————————————————————————————

:                              1,000 acres

Upland            :

United States ….:    13,850.0          13,531.0           9,957.0          12,281.0

American Pima     :

United States ….:       250.3             230.5             248.8             228.4

All               :

United States ….:    14,100.3          13,761.5          10,205.8          12,509.4

——————————————————————————————

1/ Forecasted.

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2018 and

Forecasted September 1, 2019

——————————————————————————————–

:  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre         :    Production 1/

:————————————————————————–

Type and State :         :         :        :         2019          :          :

:  2018   :  2019   :  2018  :———————–:   2018   :   2019

:         :         :        : August 1  :September 1:          :

——————————————————————————————–

:— 1,000 acres —   ———- pounds ———-        1,000 bales 2/

:

Upland           :

United States …: 9,957.0  12,281.0     847        843         826     17,566.0   21,145.0

American Pima    :

United States …:   248.8     228.4   1,545      1,462       1,507        801.0      717.0

All              :

United States …:10,205.8  12,509.4     864        855         839     18,367.0   21,862.0

——————————————————————————————–

1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.

2/ 480-pound net weight bale.

Cottonseed Production – United States: 2018 and Forecasted September 1, 2019

—————————————————————————–

:                        Production

State      :———————————————————–

:            2018             :           2019 1/

—————————————————————————–

:                        1,000 tons

:

United States …:           5,631.0                       6,770.0

—————————————————————————–

1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

 

     U.S. Cotton Supply and Use  1/

================================================================================

2017/18   2018/19 Est.  2019/20 Proj.  2019/20 Proj.

Item                                                          Aug            Sep

================================================================================

Million Acres

Planted                     12.72          14.10          13.90          13.76

Harvested                   11.10          10.21          12.64          12.51                                                Pounds

Yield per Harvested

Acre                         905            864            855            839

Million 480 Pound Bales

Beginning Stocks               2.75           4.20           5.25           4.85

Production                    20.92          18.37          22.52          21.86

Imports                        0.00           0.00           0.01           0.01

Supply, Total               23.68          22.57          27.77          26.72

Domestic Use                   3.23           2.98           3.10           3.00

Exports, Total                16.28          14.76          17.20          16.50

Use, Total                  19.50          17.74          20.30          19.50

Unaccounted 2/                -0.03          -0.02           0.27           0.02

Ending Stocks                  4.20           4.85           7.20           7.20

Avg. Farm Price 3/             68.6           70.5           60.0           58.0

================================================================================

WASDE – 592 – 18                  September 2019

 

World Cotton Supply and Use  1/

(Million 480-Pound Bales)

================================================================================

Supply                Use

Region                 Beginning Produc-                            Loss  Ending

Stocks    tion Imports Domestic Exports    2/   Stocks

================================================================================

2019/20 Proj.

World

Aug   80.27  125.61   43.90  123.07   43.85    0.40   82.45

Sep   80.80  124.90   43.28  121.74   43.34    0.15   83.75

World Less China

Aug   44.68   97.86   33.40   83.07   43.73    0.40   48.74

Sep   45.13   97.15   33.28   82.24   43.22    0.15   49.95

United States

Aug    5.25   22.52    0.01    3.10   17.20    0.27    7.20

Sep    4.85   21.86    0.01    3.00   16.50    0.02    7.20

Total Foreign

Aug   75.02  103.09   43.90  119.97   26.65    0.13   75.25

Sep   75.95  103.04   43.28  118.74   26.84    0.13   76.55

Major Exporters  4/

Aug   28.36   56.65    2.11   34.41   22.61    0.02   30.07

Sep   29.29   56.69    2.26   33.96   22.93    0.02   31.33

Major Importers  8/

Aug   44.86   43.40   39.22   81.29    2.79    0.11   43.29

Sep   44.88   43.30   38.51   80.59    2.65    0.11   43.34

================================================================================

WASDE – 592 – 28                  September 2019

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher as a new tropical storm started to form in the Atlantic.  It could move over southern Florida or just to the east as Dorian did.  Forecasters are keeping an eye on a couple of other systems in the ocean, and one shows signs of developing into a storm.  One does not look like it will be a threat to the state but the one farther out to sea has a chance to develop.  Its movement track is unclear right now.  It is the high point in the hurricane season so hurricane forecasts will capture much attention from the trade.  Chart patterns have turned mixed in response to the hurricane threat that appeared last week and the potential for more systems to form in the short term.  The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit but it will be mostly dry this week.  Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago.  Fruit for the next crop is developing and is reported to have good size.  USDA increased the crop size slightly in its data yesterday.  Crop conditions are called good.  Brazil is waiting for rains to trigger start of the next crop.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions today, then chances for showers and storms though the weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to below normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September FCOJ contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 101.00, 98.00, and 97.00 September, with resistance at 105.00, 108.00, and 110.00 September.

 

Utilized Production of Oranges by Type – States and United States: 2018-2019 and

Forecasted September 1, 2019

[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of

harvest the following year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]

—————————————————————————————————

:   Utilized production boxes 1/    :Utilized production ton equivalent

State and type       :———————————————————————-

:    2018-2019    :    2019-2020    :    2018-2019    :    2019-2020

—————————————————————————————————

:     —— 1,000 boxes —–             —— 1,000 tons —–

California, all …………:      49,800                              1,992

Early, mid, and Navel 2/ .:      40,800           38,000             1,632             1,520

Valencia ……………..:       9,000                                360

Florida, all ……………:      71,750                              3,229

Early, mid, and Navel 2/ .:      30,400                              1,368

Valencia ……………..:      41,350                              1,861

Texas ………………….:       2,500                                106

Early, mid, and Navel 2/ .:       2,210                                 94

Valencia ……………..:         290                                 12

United States, all ………:     124,050                              5,327

Early, mid, and Navel 2/ .:      73,410                              3,094

Valencia ……………..:      50,640                              2,233

—————————————————————————————————

1/ Net pounds per box: California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85.

2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties

in Florida and Texas.

 

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Sep 13

The reports for Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

for week ending 9/7/2019 and 8/31/2019. 

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING: 9/7/2019                     Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

9/7/2019         9/8/2018   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            309.19           247.40      25.0%

Retail/Institutional              6.00             6.31      -5.0%

Total                           315.19           253.71      24.2%

Pack

Bulk                              0.09             0.25     -65.1%

Retail/Institutional              0.85             1.18     -28.1%

Total Pack                        0.94             1.44     -34.6%

Reprocessed                      -0.94            -1.44     -34.6%

Pack from Fruit                   0.00             0.00         NC

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                  0.01            -0.05     -85.5%

Imports – Foreign                 4.32             5.20     -16.8%

Domestic Receipts                 0.11             0.00         NA

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.00         NC

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.00             0.00    -100.0%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.01             0.00         NA

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            312.79           251.37      24.4%

Retail/Institutional              6.85             7.50      -8.7%

Total                           319.64           258.87      23.5%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          2.11             4.30     -50.9%

Exports                           0.16             0.39     -58.3%

Total (Bulk)                      2.27             4.69     -51.5%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          0.93             1.20     -22.9%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               0.93             1.20     -22.9%

Total Movement                    3.20             5.89     -45.7%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            310.52           246.69      25.9%

Retail/Institutional              5.92             6.29      -5.9%

Ending Inventory                316.44           252.98      25.1%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

7-Sep-19         8-Sep-18   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            237.21           185.02      28.2%

Retail/Institutional              5.92             7.20     -17.8%

Total                           243.13           192.21      26.5%

Pack

Bulk                            144.90            92.46      56.7%

Retail/Institutional             59.57            61.53      -3.2%

Total Pack                      204.48           153.99      32.8%

Reprocessed                    -117.19          -112.90       3.8%

Pack from Fruit                  87.29            41.10     112.4%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -1.28             0.81      58.1%

Imports – Foreign               269.19           292.67      -8.0%

Domestic Receipts                10.37             8.36      24.1%

Receipts of Florida Produ         0.07             0.52     -87.2%

from Non-Reporting Entit         3.69             1.75     111.3%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           3.33             0.61     444.1%

Reprocessed FCTJ

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            550.29           469.29      17.3%

Retail/Institutional             65.49            68.73      -4.7%

Total                           615.78           538.02      14.5%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                            221.15           207.48       6.6%

Domestic                         18.62            15.12      23.1%

Exports                         239.77           222.61       7.7%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         59.57            62.44      -4.6%

Exports                           0.00             0.00    -100.0%

Total (Retail/Inst)              59.57            62.44      -4.6%

Total Movement                  299.34           285.04       5.0%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            310.52           246.69      25.9%

Retail/Institutional              5.92             6.29      -5.9%

Ending Inventory                316.44           252.98      25.1%

 

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING: 8/31/2019                    Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

8/31/2019         9/1/2018   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            312.69           253.15      23.5%

Retail/Institutional              6.04             5.98       1.2%

Total                           318.74           259.13      23.0%

Pack

Bulk                              0.30             0.35     -13.5%

Retail/Institutional              1.24             1.19       4.7%

Total Pack                        1.54             1.53       0.6%

Reprocessed                      -1.54            -1.53       0.6%

Pack from Fruit                   0.00             0.00         NC

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                  0.06            -0.01     604.3%

Imports – Foreign                 1.46             0.41     260.1%

Domestic Receipts                 0.00             0.00         NC

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.00         NC

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.00             0.00    -100.0%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.01             0.00         NA

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            312.98           252.37      24.0%

Retail/Institutional              7.29             7.16       1.7%

Total                           320.27           259.53      23.4%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          3.53             4.60     -23.3%

Exports                           0.26             0.36     -28.1%

Total (Bulk)                      3.79             4.96     -23.6%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.29             0.85      51.8%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.29             0.85      51.8%

Total Movement                    5.08             5.82     -12.6%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            309.19           247.40      25.0%

Retail/Institutional              6.00             6.31      -5.0%

Ending Inventory                315.19           253.71      24.2%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

31-Aug-19         1-Sep-18   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            237.21           185.02      28.2%

Retail/Institutional              5.92             7.20     -17.8%

Total                           243.13           192.21      26.5%

Pack

Bulk                            144.82            92.21      57.1%

Retail/Institutional             58.72            60.35      -2.7%

Total Pack                      203.54           152.56      33.4%

Reprocessed                    -116.25          -111.46       4.3%

Pack from Fruit                  87.29            41.10     112.4%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -1.29             0.86      49.8%

Imports – Foreign               264.87           287.47      -7.9%

Domestic Receipts                10.26             8.36      22.7%

Receipts of Florida Produ         0.07             0.52     -87.2%

from Non-Reporting Entit         3.69             1.74     111.9%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           3.32             0.61     442.7%

Reprocessed FCTJ

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            546.69           465.32      17.5%

Retail/Institutional             64.64            67.55      -4.3%

Total                           611.33           532.87      14.7%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                            219.04           203.19       7.8%

Domestic                         18.46            14.73      25.3%

Exports                         237.50           217.92       9.0%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         58.64            61.23      -4.2%

Exports                           0.00             0.00    -100.0%

Total (Retail/Inst)              58.64            61.23      -4.2%

Total Movement                  296.14           279.16       6.1%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            309.19           247.40      25.0%

Retail/Institutional              6.00             6.31      -5.0%

Ending Inventory                315.19           253.71      24.2%

COFFEE 

General Comments:  New York closed slightly higher on follow through speculative short covering.  London closed a little lower.  The chart trends are up in New York and mixed in London.  The certified stocks in New York keep dropping as the futures offer a very cost effective way to get supplies.  There is increasing talk of the dry weather in Brazil that is hurting flowering and there are some dry pockets in Colombia.  The Arabica growing areas are waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the year.  There are no rains in the forecast for at least the next week.  Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.  It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains.  Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production potential is growing faster.  The weaker production prospects this year should help to hold prices from going much lower.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.322 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 99.71 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north.  ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 491 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with no objectives.  Support is at 100.00, 98.00, and 97.00 December, and resistance is at 106.00, 108.00 and 109.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1300, 1290, and 1260 November, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1370 November.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York closed a little lower and London was mostly a little lower yesterday.  Expiring October futures were higher in New York as shorts try to buy themselves out of having to make delivery.  The contracts stops trading today.  Dry weather could affect northern crops in Brazil.  However, the market still thinks there is plenty of Sugar available and is not able to rally on the lower production ideas.  World supplies still appear ample for the demand potential.  Reports from India indicate that the country still has a large surplus of White Sugar that probably must be exported.  India is reporting very good monsoon rains and production prospects for this year have definitely improved after a slow start to the season.  The last couple of weeks have featured above average rains.  The fundamentals still suggest big supplies, and the weather in Brazil is good enough and India has improved to support some of the big production ideas.  The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe.  Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season.  Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again.  These areas need more rain and some cooler weather to provide better conditions for the final development of the Sugar beets crops.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1170 March.  Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1110 March, and resistance is at 1200, 1220, and 1240 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 294.00 December.  Support is at 305.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 310.00, 312.00, and 317.00 December.

 

Sugarbeet for Sugar Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2018 and

Forecasted September 1, 2019

[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]

————————————————————————————————-

:  Area harvested   :           Yield per acre            :      Production

:———————————————————————————

State     :         :         :         :           2019            :           :

:  2018   :  2019   :  2018   :—————————:   2018    :   2019

:         :         :         :  August 1   : September 1 :           :

————————————————————————————————-

: — 1,000 acres —    ———— tons ————        — 1,000 tons —

California 1/ .:    24.6      24.2    44.4        43.1          43.9         1,092       1,062

Colorado ……:    25.5      24.5    32.6        31.3          33.0           831         809

Idaho ………:   163.0     166.0    40.5        40.9          40.2         6,602       6,673

Michigan ……:   147.0     145.0    29.1        29.9          28.1         4,278       4,075

Minnesota …..:   408.0     421.0    25.7        27.5          26.7        10,486      11,241

Montana …….:    42.4      41.5    31.1        33.5          31.5         1,319       1,307

Nebraska ……:    44.1      43.2    31.9        31.6          28.1         1,407       1,214

North Dakota ..:   199.0     209.0    28.8        29.3          28.0         5,731       5,852

Oregon ……..:     9.3       9.7    39.4        38.4          39.2           366         380

Washington ….:     1.8       2.0    48.2        46.7          48.2            87          96

Wyoming …….:    30.7      30.6    30.8        29.2          27.4           946         838

United States .: 1,095.4   1,116.7    30.3        31.1          30.0        33,145      33,547

————————————————————————————————-

1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States:

2018 and Forecasted September 1, 2019

————————————————————————————————-

:  Area harvested   :          Yield per acre 1/          :     Production 1/

:———————————————————————————

State     :         :         :         :           2019            :           :

:  2018   :  2019   :  2018   :—————————:   2018    :   2019

:         :         :         :  August 1   : September 1 :           :

————————————————————————————————-

:    1,000 acres       ———— tons ————        — 1,000 tons —

Florida …….:  412.3     411.0     41.9        43.3          44.1        17,256      18,125

Louisiana …..:  448.5     475.0     35.4        32.5          32.4        15,861      15,390

Texas ………:   38.9      33.5     36.6        38.2          37.0         1,425       1,240

United States .:  899.7     919.5     38.4        37.5          37.8        34,542      34,755

———————————————————————————————–

COCOA              

General Comments:  Futures closed a little higher and trends are turning up again in both markets.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  The market could start to act weaker as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa.  In fact, some initial harvesting is being reported in Nigeria, but most areas will not start the harvest just yet.  The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.  The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease.  Ideas are that the next crop will be good.  Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are also reported to be good.  The harvest is ongoing amid somewhat drier weather.  More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region.  Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will be on both sides of normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.924 million bags.  ICE said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against September contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,121 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2320 and 2420 December.  Support is at 2280, 2230, and 2210 December, with resistance at 2340, 2400, and 2440 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1770 and 1970 December.  Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 December, with resistance at 1780, 1800, and 1830 December.

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