MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

 

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was higher yesterday on news that China could be in the US in a matter of days to sign the Phase One agreement with the Trump administration.  The agreement promises to help move Cotton from the US to China in the short and long term.  China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production.  The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions.  The harvest is now about over.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers on Thursday and Southeast should see mostly dry weather except for some rain on Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average price is now 65.13 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 9,221 ba1es, from 11,699 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March.  Support is at 6850, 6780, and 6700 March, with resistance of 7030, 7330, and 7440 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2019              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   250,573

: Positions                                                                               :

:   32,353    28,437    60,320    51,634   133,424    88,148    18,645   232,454   240,825:   18,119     9,748

: Changes from: December 17, 2019          (Change in open interest:       7,739)         :

:    3,134    -4,741     2,939    -1,106    11,432       964       246     5,931     9,876:    1,808    -2,137

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     12.9      11.3      24.1      20.6      53.2      35.2       7.4      92.8      96.1:      7.2       3.9

: Total Traders:   311          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       92        84        88        50        62        50        27       241       222:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was lower, with most of the weakness seen in the January contract that will go into delivery on Thursday.  Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 37% above last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions through this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week.   Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and scattered showers next week and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 March, with resistance at 99.00, 100.00, and 102.00 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2019

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    20,824                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:    9,663     8,012     1,100         0        72       897     7,392       330     2,039     1,016     2,119 :

: Changes from:     December 17, 2019                                                                          :

:   -1,533      -225       -45         0         2       -57    -1,412        50      -432       -27    -2,346 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     46.4      38.5       5.3       0.0       0.3       4.3      35.5       1.6       9.8       4.9      10.2 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    86                     :

:       23        13         6         0         .         .        22         .        20         4        10 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were a little lower in both markets.  Funds were on both sides of the market and the commercials were mostly absent.  The Brazilian crop is developing well after recent rains but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America and that has hurt exporters ability to offer.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from.  Peru is also too dry right now.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers.  Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.031 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 116.09 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions early and showers and storms later this week with near to above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 136.00 and 142.00 March.  Support is at 130.00, 125.00, and 123.00 March, and resistance is at 135.00, 141.00 and 144.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 March.   Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1410, 1430, and 1460 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2019 

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   355,400

: Positions                                                                               :

:   41,334    19,791   112,832   112,546   201,084    77,190    12,836   343,902   346,543:   11,499     8,857

: Changes from: December 17, 2019          (Change in open interest:       1,568)         :

:      267    -1,227     1,011    -1,073     2,849     1,255      -846     1,460     1,787:      107      -219

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     11.6       5.6      31.7      31.7      56.6      21.7       3.6      96.8      97.5:      3.2       2.5

: Total Traders:   426          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      117        99       148       119       119        51        27       372       326:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  The markets closed mostly a little higher in New York and a little higher in London.  It appeared to be a quiet day with little apparent news to push the markets much in either direction.  Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later.  Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year.  However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers and storms later in the week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1400 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March.  Support is at 359.00, 355.00, and 352.00 March, and resistance is at 363.00, 366.00, and 369.00 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2019              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,170,963

: Positions                                                                               :

:  150,062   152,775   256,184   363,803   630,386   305,936    71,906 1,075,985 1,111,251:   94,979    59,713

: Changes from: December 17, 2019          (Change in open interest:       1,788)         :

:   -7,049    -9,322       886     7,053    12,650    -1,206    -7,330      -316    -3,116:    2,104     4,904

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     12.8      13.0      21.9      31.1      53.8      26.1       6.1      91.9      94.9:      8.1       5.1

: Total Traders:   273          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       76        55        93        80        79        41        28       246       211:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  Futures closed lower in both markets as the harvest activities continue in West Africa.  It was a give back day after the rally on Friday, but no chart damage was done.  The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.  Ideas are that the next crop will be good.  Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities.  The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time.  The weather in Asia is also called good.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in southern sections of West Africa.  Temperatures will be on both sides of normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.737 million bags.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2560 March.  Support is at 2430, 2380, and 2280 March, with resistance at 2510, 2550, and 2580 March.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 March.  Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 March, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1890 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 24, 2019              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   325,604

: Positions                                                                               :

:   56,147    37,881    96,832    95,992   158,900    63,674    22,766   312,645   316,378:   12,960     9,226

: Changes from: December 17, 2019          (Change in open interest:     -36,320)         :

:  -18,155    -1,106   -18,023     2,326   -14,955    -1,971    -1,386   -35,823   -35,469:     -497      -851

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     17.2      11.6      29.7      29.5      48.8      19.6       7.0      96.0      97.2:      4.0       2.8

: Total Traders:   232          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       83        48        88        41        40        38        16       206       161:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

 

 

 

 

 

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