MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

                                       

 

Jack Scoville

 

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

 

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was lower in narrow range trading last week.  A catalyst for any rally attempt has been the trade deal between the US and China.  China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production.  It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed.  Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic.  The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries.  Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside ther country were closed for an extended holiday.  All are reopen now.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast should see some rains early this week, then dry weather.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  Texas will have mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will trend to below normal.  The USDA average price is now 62.98 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 32,990 ba1es, from 32,361 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6710, 6680, and 6620 March, with resistance of 6790, 6880 and 6910 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   249,025

: Positions                                                                               :

:   38,591    24,432    55,503    47,335   147,898    91,998    10,099   233,426   237,932:   15,599    11,093

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:     -43,735)         :

:     -727    -3,119   -21,381   -19,684   -15,670    -2,546    -3,700   -44,338   -43,870:      603       135

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     15.5       9.8      22.3      19.0      59.4      36.9       4.1      93.7      95.5:      6.3       4.5

: Total Traders:   286          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       96        63        96        52        58        48        21       244       203:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher for the week.  Futures act as if it could work higher despite bearish fundamentals.  There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 26% above last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 104.00 and 110.00 March.  Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 March, with resistance at 100.00, 102.00, and 105.00 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    23,619                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   11,010     7,679     1,120         0        70     1,103     8,739       506     2,037     1,114     3,002 :

: Changes from:     February 4, 2020                                                                           :

:     -561       -48       -89         0         2       103      -498      -172        39      -208      -450 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     46.6      32.5       4.7       0.0       0.3       4.7      37.0       2.1       8.6       4.7      12.7 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    96                     :

:       22        13         5         0         .         6        23         4        22         8        15 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

Retail/Institutional              5.82             5.92      -1.6%

Total                           317.77           243.13      30.7%

Pack

Bulk                             58.82            50.09      17.4%

Retail/Institutional             22.23            21.32       4.3%

Total Pack                       81 DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Feb 14

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING: 2/1/2020

Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

2/1/2020         2/2/2019   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            298.13           233.80      27.5%

Retail/Institutional              6.83             5.86      16.5%

Total                           304.96           239.66      27.2%

Pack

Bulk                              3.79             5.47     -30.8%

Retail/Institutional              0.93             1.34     -30.7%

Total Pack                        4.71             6.81     -30.8%

Reprocessed                      -2.96            -3.28      -9.9%

Pack from Fruit                   1.76             3.53     -50.2%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.14             0.60     -77.5%

Imports – Foreign                 3.42             4.89     -30.0%

Domestic Receipts                 1.40             0.00         NA

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.00         NC

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.44             0.00         NA

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.08             0.06      28.0%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            304.16           241.55      25.9%

Retail/Institutional              7.76             7.20       7.8%

Total                           311.92           248.74      25.4%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          5.24             4.75      10.4%

Exports                           0.47             0.56     -16.1%

Total (Bulk)                      5.71             5.31       7.6%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.03             1.15     -10.5%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.03             1.15     -10.5%

Total Movement                    6.75             6.46       4.4%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            298.45           236.23      26.3%

Retail/Institutional              6.73             6.05      11.2%

Ending Inventory                305.17           242.28      26.0%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

1-Feb-20         2-Feb-19  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            311.95           237.21      31.5%

.05            71.41      13.5%

Reprocessed                     -39.73           -41.99      -5.4%

Pack from Fruit                  41.32            29.42      40.4%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.94            -0.88       6.5%

Imports – Foreign                32.15            77.70     -58.6%

Domestic Receipts                 7.13             1.22     486.1%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.15             0.04     323.8%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           9.16             0.24    3793.4%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.51             0.28      82.3%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            379.20           323.90      17.1%

Retail/Institutional             28.05            27.23       3.0%

Total                           407.25           351.14      16.0%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             75.98            81.51      -6.8%

Domestic                          4.78             6.16     -22.5%

Exports                          80.75            87.67      -7.9%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         21.32            21.18       0.7%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              21.32            21.18       0.7%

Total Movement                  102.08           108.86      -6.2%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            298.45           236.23      26.3%

Retail/Institutional              6.73             6.05      11.2%

Ending Inventory                305.17           242.28      26.0%

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London on a lack of news and despite ideas of good growing conditions in Brazil.  Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production.  The chart trends are mixed to up in New York and mixed in London due to the big production ideas, and futures could form a bottom in the current trading range.  Cecafe noted reduced exports from Brazil in January.  The ICO noted that demand remains very strong in the world market and that demand could outstrip supply in the next few weeks.  Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers.  Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.163 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 104.30 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with no objectives.  Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 March, and resistance is at 110.00, 111.00 and 114.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1250, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   396,440

: Positions                                                                               :

:   31,393    46,025   119,810   152,780   190,928    76,839    31,914   380,823   388,677:   15,617     7,763

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:     -10,647)         :

:     -815    11,719   -16,631    10,412    -4,580    -4,776       -51   -11,809    -9,542:    1,162    -1,105

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:      7.9      11.6      30.2      38.5      48.2      19.4       8.1      96.1      98.0:      3.9       2.0

: Total Traders:   437          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      137        95       147       123       119        50        24       374       335:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  :  New York closed higher and London closed lower after making new highs for the move.  It was a dramatic week and one that implies that the current rally might be over.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off.  Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1440 March, and resistance is at 1540, 1590, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 410.00, 404.00, and 396.00 May, and resistance is at 420.00, 424.00, and 435.00 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020               

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,551,567

: Positions                                                                               :

:  193,583   101,974   369,263   527,712   926,790   348,624    98,634 1,439,181 1,496,661:  112,387    54,907

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:      89,083)         :

:    8,891    -5,081    31,597    48,428    58,735    -4,130     4,668    84,785    89,919:    4,298      -836

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     12.5       6.6      23.8      34.0      59.7      22.5       6.4      92.8      96.5:      7.2       3.5

: Total Traders:   304          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      103        44       105        94        86        43        23       285       224:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York closed slightly higher for the week and London closed lower after the recent big rally in prices.  Funds and other speculators were more two sided in trading.  Producers were sellers in both markets.  Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast is good.  The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.378 million bags.  ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 55 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2880, 2850, and 2820 March, with resistance at 2990, 3010, and 3040 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950, 1900, and 1840 March.  Support is at 1950, 1940, and 1910 March, with resistance at 2000, 2040, and 2060 March.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 11, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   391,089

: Positions                                                                               :

:   84,938    42,310   122,639    92,631   188,609    75,005    25,462   375,212   379,019:   15,877    12,070

: Changes from: February 4, 2020           (Change in open interest:     -11,445)         :

:    8,901       569    -6,299   -11,080    -2,644    -3,322    -2,420   -11,800   -10,794:      355      -651

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     21.7      10.8      31.4

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