MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

                                       

 

Jack Scoville

 

Monday, February 24, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

 

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was a little higher in narrow range trading last week.  A catalyst for any rally attempt has been the trade deal between the US and China.  China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production.  It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed.  Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic.  The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries.  Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside the country were closed for an extended holiday.  All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast should see some big rains today and tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near to below normal after smow Warmer days today and tomorrow

  1. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trend to below normal.  The USDA average price is now 63.68 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 34,062 ba1es, from 33,349 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6850, 6810, and 6770 May, with resistance of 6940, 6970 and 7020 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 18, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   232,528

: Positions                                                                               :

:   40,006    25,548    51,530    36,878   136,314    88,222     7,910   216,637   221,303:   15,892    11,225

: Changes from: February 11, 2020          (Change in open interest:     -16,496)         :

:    1,415     1,117    -3,972   -10,456   -11,585    -3,776    -2,188   -16,790   -16,629:      293       133

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     17.2      11.0      22.2      15.9      58.6      37.9       3.4      93.2      95.2:      6.8       4.8

: Total Traders:   286          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       94        68        90        51        59        48        22       240       203:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was slightly higher for the week in narrow range trading.  There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 26% above last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 March, with resistance at 101.00, 102.00, and 105.00 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 18, 2020

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:————————————————————————————————————- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

—————————————————————————————————————-

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    22,689                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   10,456     7,349     1,157         0         1     1,230     8,320       727     1,980     1,180     2,491 :

: Changes from:     February 11, 2020                                                                          :

:     -553      -330        37         0       -69       127      -419       221       -57        66      -511 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     46.1      32.4       5.1       0.0       0.0       5.4      36.7       3.2       8.7       5.2      11.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    94                     :

:       22        14         6         0         .         7        21         4        22         8        13 :

—————————————————————————————————————-

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and lower in London.  Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production.  The chart trends are mixed to up in New York and mixed in London due to the big production ideas, and futures could form a bottom in the current trading range.  Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend and showers are continuing through this weekend.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers.  Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.162 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 105.83 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.  ICE said that 66 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and tat total deliveries for the month are now 68 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 118.00 and 127.00 May.  Support is at 109.00, 105.00, and 102.00 May, and resistance is at 112.00, 114.00 and 116.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1280, 1260, and 1230 May, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 May.

 

DJ Uganda Coffee Exports Jump 19% on Year in January

By Nicholas Bariyo

KAMPALA, Uganda–Coffee exports jumped 19% in January compared with the same month of the previous year, boosted by larger deliveries from the continuing harvest, the state coffee body Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Monday.

Shipments of 60-kilogram bags jumped to 469,951, compared with 394,937 bags exported in January last year, UCDA said in a report. January’s exports, were the highest since the coffee year started in October, bringing the cumulative shipments to 1.62 million bags worth $148 million, marking an 11% jump in volume and some 8% rise in value on year.

“The coffee exports compared to the previous year were on account of increased procurement as a result of favorable weather and the newly planted coffee trees which started yielding,” UCDA said. “The export value would have been higher if the global prices had not corrected downwards in January 2020,” the organization said.

Uganda, which grows mainly the bitter-tasting robusta coffee, used in blends and instant drinks, exports nearly all of its bean-form coffee output to the U.S. and European Union.

Uganda expects a bumper crop of around 5.2 million bags for the 2019-20 season.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 18, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   355,760

: Positions                                                                               :

:   30,468    46,991    98,469   139,976   176,360    74,294    27,710   343,207   349,530:   12,552     6,229

: Changes from: February 11, 2020          (Change in open interest:     -40,680)         :

:     -925       966   -21,341   -12,804   -14,567    -2,545    -4,205   -37,615   -39,147:   -3,065    -1,534

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:      8.6      13.2      27.7      39.3      49.6      20.9       7.8      96.5      98.2:      3.5       1.8

: Total Traders:   434          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:      131        94       141       123       119        50        24       371       325:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher aa the mills try to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off.  Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1490, 1470, and 1450 May, and resistance is at 1530, 1560, and 1590 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 417.00, 410.00, and 404.00 May, and resistance is at 424.00, 425.00, and 435.00 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 18, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,418,058

: Positions                                                                               :

:  203,612   105,513   300,293   463,863   893,552   337,086    66,162 1,304,854 1,365,520:  113,203    52,537

: Changes from: February 11, 2020          (Change in open interest:    -133,510)         :

:   10,030     3,539   -68,970   -63,848   -33,238   -11,538   -32,472  -134,327  -131,140:      817    -2,369

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     14.4       7.4      21.2      32.7      63.0      23.8       4.7      92.0      96.3:      8.0       3.7

: Total Traders:   284          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       91        41        94        83        81        44        25       262       208:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher for the week.  Funds and other speculators were more two sided in trading.  Producers were sellers in both markets.  Harvest is now almost over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast is good.  The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.512 million bags.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 55 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2820, 2790, and 2740 May, with resistance at 2890, 2920, and 2930 May.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 2020, 1990, and 1940 May, with resistance at 2070, 2100, and 2130 May.

 

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 18, 2020              

:                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

:—————————————————————————————- :      Positions

:         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

:    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   390,321

: Positions                                                                               :

:   87,023    46,470   119,175    90,379   182,702    78,459    28,778   375,036   377,126:   15,284    13,195

: Changes from: February 11, 2020          (Change in open interest:        -768)         :

:    2,085     4,160    -3,463    -2,253    -5,907     3,455     3,316      -176    -1,893:     -592     1,125

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

:     22.3      11.9      30.5      23.2      46.8      20.1       7.4      96.1      96.6:      3.9       3.4

: Total Traders:   263          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

:       95        65        91        37        40        37        22       222       178:

——————————————————————————————————————-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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