MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

                                       

 

Jack Scoville

 

Thursday, February 27, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

 

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was lower in reaction to news of the spread of the Caronavirus and in reaction to the drop for the third day in the stock markets.  The virus has now spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran this week and no one has a cure.  The spread created new fears about the health of the world economy and that meant the potential for less demand for US Cotton.  The number of new cases being reported inside China continues to drop, but the number of new cases outside of China is increasing.  Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic.  The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries.  Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as factories inside the country were closed for an extended holiday.  All are reopen now, but the manufacturing pace has been slow.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast should see some big rains today and tomorrow.  Temperatures should average near to below normal after snow.  Texas will have mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will trend to below normal.  The USDA average price is now 60.15 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 37,522 ba1es, from 35,909 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 26 notices were posted for delivery against March Cotton contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 321 contracts.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 214,600 bales this year and 198,900 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 28,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 6270 May.  Support is at 6540, 6520, and 6490 May, with resistance of 6730, 6770 and 6810 May.

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was mostly lower on follow through selling tied to the Coronavirus news.  It has spread to South Korea, Italy, and Iran this week and it is this spread that is causing fears of a global economic decline.  The reports of new cases inside China are on the decline.  Demand for FCOJ remains low even with the news of the new virus around.  There is a big crop of Oranges in Florida.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 24% above last year.

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 March, with resistance at 100.00, 101.00, and 102.00 March.

 

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Feb 27

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

2/15/2020                                  Corresponding

Current        Week Last

Week           Season

2/15/2020        2/16/2019   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            301.65           241.53      24.9%

Retail/Institutional              6.98             5.60      24.6%

Total                           308.63           247.13      24.9%

Pack

Bulk                              3.61             5.44     -33.6%

Retail/Institutional              1.48             1.04      43.1%

Total Pack                        5.09             6.48     -21.4%

Reprocessed                      -3.49            -2.40      45.5%

Pack from Fruit                   1.60             4.08     -60.7%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.04             0.24     -83.3%

Imports – Foreign                 4.26             5.17     -17.5%

Domestic Receipts                 0.38             0.18     107.7%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.03             0.00         NA

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           0.67             0.34      96.9%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.09             0.11     -14.3%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            307.17           250.61      22.6%

Retail/Institutional              8.46             6.64      27.5%

Total                           315.63           257.25      22.7%

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          4.40             5.82     -24.3%

Exports                           0.25             0.28     -13.9%

Total (Bulk)                      4.65             6.10     -23.8%

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.28             1.20       7.5%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.28             1.20       7.5%

Total Movement                    5.93             7.30     -18.7%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            302.52           244.51      23.7%

Retail/Institutional              7.18             5.44      31.9%

Ending Inventory                309.70           249.95      23.9%

Total Same

Total Season      Period Last

To Date           Season

15-Feb-20        16-Feb-19  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            311.95           237.21      31.5%

Retail/Institutional              5.82             5.92      -1.6%

Total                           317.77           243.13      30.7%

Pack

Bulk                             66.30            62.12       6.7%

Retail/Institutional             25.02            22.76       9.9%

Total Pack                       91.31            84.87       7.6%

Reprocessed                     -46.65           -46.86      -0.4%

Pack from Fruit                  44.66            38.01      17.5%

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -1.36            -0.69      98.6%

Imports – Foreign                44.61            88.07     -49.4%

Domestic Receipts                 7.66             1.53     402.3%

Receipts of Florida Product

from Non-Reporting Entit         0.18             0.04     415.9%

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ          10.00             1.65     506.9%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.74             0.53      40.0%

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            393.42           343.58      14.5%

Retail/Institutional             30.84            28.67       7.6%

Total                           424.26           372.25      14.0%

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             85.47            92.47      -7.6%

Domestic                          5.43             6.60     -17.7%

Exports                          90.90            99.07      -8.2%

Total (Bulk)

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                         23.66            23.23       1.9%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)              23.66            23.23       1.9%

Total Movement                  114.56           122.30      -6.3%

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            302.52           244.51      23.7%

Retail/Institutional              7.18             5.44      31.9%

Ending Inventory                309.70           249.95      23.9%

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher once again in New York and in London.  Support came from a lack of supply in Brazil at this time and on concern that previous bad growing conditions have hurt production potential in the Cerrado, home of about 10% of all Brazil production.  Rains and showers were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers.  Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.140 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 104.69 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.  ICE said that 20 notices were posted for delivery against March contracts and tat total deliveries for the month are now 1,236 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 118.00 and 127.00 March.  Support is at 105.00, 102.00, and 100.00 May, and resistance is at 112.00, 114.00 and 116.00 May.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1270, 1260, and 1230 May, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1340 May.

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower and started to turn trends down.  The Coronavirus and its world economic effects are taking a toll on world Sugar and Ethanol consumption and demand.  The strength in the US Dollar against the Real and other currencies is also negative.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India and that Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  The Brazil harvest is almost over so the supplies will start to tail off.  Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol.

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1420 and 1370 May.  Support is at 1430, 1420, and 1400 May, and resistance is at 1520, 1530, and 1560 May.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 400.00 and 388.00 May.  Support is at 400.00, 396.00, and 389.00 May, and resistance is at 412.00, 420.00, and 424.00 May.

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York and London closed lower and chart trends are turning down.  The strength in the US Dollar along with demand concerns from Cortonavirus affected countries played a major roll in the move lower yesterday.  The spread of the virus to other countries created new fears of trouble for the world economy.  Harvest is now almost over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast is good.  The weather is too dry in Ghana and Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.700 million bags.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 55 contracts.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2720 and 2600 May.  Support is at 2700, 2670, and 2620 May, with resistance at 2790, 2830, and 2890 May.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1920 and 1840 May.  Support is at 1940, 1930, and 1910 May, with resistance at 2000, 2030, and 2070 May.

 

 

 

 

 

 

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (312) 264-4322 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

Posted in

Tagged keywords...