Jack Scoville

Friday, May 29, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322


San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806



General Comments   Cotton was lower with differing opinions on the fate of Chinese demand keeping some buyers away.  There has been concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong.  These concerns became more important yesterday.  The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks.  The hope that consumer demand for Cotton products will quickly return is not likely to be confirmed.  Consumers have really been hurt economically due to stay at home orders imposed here and overseas and it will take some time for them to recover.  It has been dry in West Texas and producers are concerned over the fate of the crop there.  It is too dry in Brazil for good growth of the second crop of Cotton.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get isolated showers through Saturday, then dry weather, and Southeast will get scattered showers through Saturday, then dry weather.  Temperatures should be mostly below normal.  Texas will have dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near normal.  The USDA average price is now 53151 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 8,122 bales, from 8,172 bales yesterday.  USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 44,600 bales this year and 171,900 bales next year.  Net Pima sales were 10,100 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 5760, 5710, and 5680 July, with resistance of 5940, 5980 and 6050 July.


General Comments:  FCOJ was lower in consolidation trading.  Trends are still up in the market.  Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice.  Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand.  Demand from the food service side has been much less.  Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced.  Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand.  The weather in Florida has become much better for the crops.  Southern areas are cooler now and have seen a few showers.  The Valencia harvest is active.  Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. 

Overnight News:  Florida should get periods of showers into next week.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 132.00 July.  Support is at 127.00, 123.00, and 121.00 July, with resistance at 130.00, 133.00, and 136.00 July.


General Comments:  Futures were lower in both markets yesterday on the weaker Brazilian Real against the US Dollar.  Trends have turned down in New York and are sideways in London.  Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time.  This might change a bit in the next few weeks as the US and EU economies slowly open up but so far demand has not been strong here in the US.  The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult.  Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants.  Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.  Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus.  Indonesian producers are much more active sellers.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.774 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 100.54 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday after a dry week with near to above normal temperatures.  Dry and cool conditions next week.  Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 98.00, 95.00, and 92.00 July, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 107.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1170, 1150, and 1130 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1240 July.


General Comments:  New York and London closed lower.  Crude Oil and products prices were higher after trading lower early in the day.  The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and UNICA has shown the change in the production mix for the last several reports.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get a dry week.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1020 October, and resistance is at 1130, 1160, and 1180 October.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 329.00, 324.00, and 285.00 August August.  Support is at 343.00, 340.00, and 328.00 August, and resistance is at 363.00, 371.00, and 379.00 August.


General Comments:  New York and London closed lower on follow through speculative selling.  Futures are still in trading ranges but are now at the lower end of those ranges. The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts.  Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away.  The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers.  Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  Ideas are that demand is less than before due to the Coronavirus problems in Europe.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region. 

Overnight News:  Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.260 million bags.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2340, 2320, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2410, 2460, and 2470 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1920, 1910, and 1890 July, with resistance at 1970, 1990, and 2000 July.

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