MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

Crop Progress
Date31-May24-May2019Avg
Cotton Planted66536768
877
Corn Planted93886489
Corn Emerged78644273
Soybeans Planted75653668
Soybeans Emerged52351744
Sorghum Planted49393346
Rice Planted93898996
Rice Emerged81717286
Peanuts Planted78648482
Sugarbeets Planted99939699
Sunflowers Planted32141638
Oats Planted96938997
Oats Emerged86787489
Oats Headed272229
Winter Wheat Headed77687381
Winter Wheat Harvested312
Spring Wheat Planted91819096
Spring Wheat Emerged67516380
Barley Planted93869296
Barley Emerged74626881
Crop Condition
Very PoorPoorFairGoodExcellent
Cotton This Week1748395
Cotton Last Week
Cotton Last Year31041388
Winter Wheat This Week61330438
Winter Wheat Last Week51130468
Winter Wheat Last Year27275014
Spring Wheat This Week1118728
Spring Wheat Last Week
Spring Wheat Last Year14216311
Corn This Week14226113
Corn Last Week14255812
Corn Last Year
Soybeans This Week13266010
Soybeans Last Week
Soybeans Last Year
Sorghum This Week2430568
Sprghum Last Week
Sorghum Last Year
Rice This Week02295514
Rice Last Week12355111
Rice Last Year1632529
Peanuts This Week2624653
Peanuts Last Week
Peanuts Last Year1632592
Oats This Week13255912
Oats Last Week03236212
Oats Last Year3534517
Barley This Week0130618
Barley Last Week0231616
Barley Last Year01117810
Pastures and Ranges This Week41233429
Pastures and Ranges Last Week41234437
Pastures and Ranges Last Year16265413

COTTON            

General Comments   Cotton was sharply higher.  It was partly a weather market as growing conditions are still difficult in the Texas Panhandle.  Support is coming from improved demand for US Cotton, but this demand has started to fade.  Export sales were poor last week.  There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong.  The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks.  The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes.  Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be mostly above normal.  Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.  The USDA average price is now 55.63 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 10,123 bales, from 9,170 bales yesterday. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 5730, 5710, and 5680 July, with resistance of 6050, 6100 and 6120 July.

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was higher.  Trends are still mostly up in the market.  Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice.  Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand.  Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, so supplies available to the market are somewhat reduced.  Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand.  There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states.  The weather in Florida [JS1] is currently good for the crops.  Southern areas are cool and have seen a few showers.  The Valencia harvest is in full swing.  More signs of growth on trees are reported.  Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. 

Overnight News:  Florida should get periods of showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 121.00, 120.00, and 117.00 July, with resistance at 125.00, 128.00, and 130.00 July.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and lower in London.  New York rallied on reports of big rains in parts of Central America.  El Salvador, Guatemala, southwest Mexico and western Honduras were hit hard with a ;lt of rain over the weekend.  El Salvador declared a State of Emergency.  Coffee production and processing has taken a hit in these areas.  The chart trends in New York and London are down.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations has dropped to almost nothing.  Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time.  This should change in the next few weeks as the US and EU economies slowly open up.  The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult.  Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants.  Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.  Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently and the effects of the Coronavirus.  Indonesian producers are more active sellers.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 1.759 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 99.68 ct/lb.  Brazil will get a dry week or maybe some isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 96.00 July.  Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 107.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1150, 1130, and 1080 July, and resistance is at 1170, 1210, and 1230 July.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher despite a weakening Real and weaker petroleum prices.  Both markets are showing signs of failing just when longer term chart trends were turning up.  The recently weaker petroleum futures had made higher priced ethanol that much more expensive to blend and cuts demand.  Prices in petroleum futures remained generally firm in the last week but still have a long way to go before Ethanol processing becomes profitable again.  That makes more Sugarcane available for processing into Sugar in Brazil.  The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market and the futures market price action suggests that they are succeeding.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus.  India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get a dry week or maybe isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1020 October, and resistance is at 1100, 1130, and 1160 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 360.00, 351.00, and 343.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 379.00, and 387.00 August.

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York and London closed mostly higher with only London July closing a little lower.  The virus has complicated farming and marketing efforts.  Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away.  The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers.  The removal of the lockdowns should improve demand in the short term.  Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.  Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.

Overnight News:  Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.256 million bags.  The ICCO said that Cocoa production was 4.75 million tons, 74,000 tons less than its previous estimate.  Grindings were 4.783 million tons, also less than expected.   

Overnight News:

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2530, 2650, and 2780 July.  Support is at 2440, 2400, and 2340 July, with resistance at 2530, 2580, and 2650 July.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1890 July, with resistance at 1970, 1990, and 2000 July.

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