MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Friday, June 05, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON            

General Comments   Cotton was a little lower on worries about potential Chinese demand.  There is concern that China will stop fulfilling its obligations in the Phase One trade deal due to ramped up US rhetoric on the Chinese response to the Coronavirus epidemic and now the unrest in Hong Kong.  The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks.  The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes.  Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be mostly above normal.  Texas will have dry conditions or isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.  The USDA average price is now 55.46 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 14,289 bales, from 13,387 bales yesterday.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6670 July.  Support is at 5940, 5730, and 5710 July, with resistance of 6120, 6220 and 6250 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 4

   As of May 29. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

   *-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

               Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

              Sales                     Purchases

Jul 20       22,958    23,371     -413     14,578    15,180    -602

Oct 20            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 20       26,410    25,382    1,028     23,319    22,827     492

Mar 21       17,290    17,157      133      6,130     5,743     387

May 21        6,840     6,588      252      1,134       826     308

Jul 21       10,857    10,770       87      1,392     1,348      44

Dec 21        6,160     6,160        0      8,474     8,432      42

Mar 22          837       616      221         13        13       0

May 22          100       100        0          0         0       0

Jul 22           50        50        0          0         0       0

Dec 22            0         0        0          7         7       0

Dec 23            0         0        0          7         7       0

Total        91,502    90,194    1,308     55,054    54,383     671 

               Open      Open   Change

                Int       Int

Jul 20       82,704    83,268     -564

Oct 20           36        31        5

Dec 20       75,382    67,846    7,536

Mar 21       14,818    14,033      785

May 21        4,042     3,914      128

Jul 21        5,289     4,590      699

Dec 21       10,090     9,526      564

Mar 22           82        71       11

May 22            2         1        0

Jul 22            6         4        2

Dec 22            3         1        2

Dec 23            0         0        0

Total       192,454   183,285    9,169

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was lower.  Support is coming from people at home and drinking Orange Juice.  Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand.  Oranges production was estimated as less in the latest USDA reports at below 70 million boxes, but FCOJ inventories are holding.  There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states.  The weather in Florida [JS1] is currently good for the crops.  Southern areas are cool and have seen a few showers.  The Valencia harvest is in full swing.  More signs of growth on trees are reported.  Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. 

Overnight News:  Florida should get periods of showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 July, with resistance at 129.00, 130.00, and 133.00 July.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and in London.  New York was lower on weakness in the Brazilian Real.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels.  Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home, but many smaller roasters are actively trying to unload green coffee already bought a there are only a few outlets for sales at this time.  The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult.  Producers have had trouble getting workers to pick the cherries and mills and processors have had trouble getting workers to staff the plants.  Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations.  Vietnamese producers are not selling due to the weaker prices paid currently.  Indonesian producers are more active sellers.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 1.745 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 100.04 ct/lb.  Brazil will get some isolated showers with above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 96.00 July.  Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 89.00 July, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 107.00 July.  Trends in London are mixed.   Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1120 July, and resistance is at 1210, 1230, and 1240 July.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher despite a weakening Real and weaker petroleum prices.  The market acts as if there  is a short supply of White Sugar available.  The Brazil mills are trying to cover the lack of White Sugar in the market but might switch back to producing ethanol soon if prices continue to improve for the ethanol.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India in part due to logistical and harvest problems caused by the Coronavirus.  India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get a dry week or maybe isolated showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1310 and 1420 October.  Support is at 1130, 1120, and 1100 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1220, and 1260 October.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 408.00 August.  Support is at 370.00, 363.00, and 360.00 August, and resistance is at 387.00, 396.00, and 400.00 August.

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York closed mixed to higher and London closed a little lower.  Some of the trading was related to changes in currency relationships between the US Dollar and British Pound.  Ideas are that deliveries can be slower on any contracted Cocoa and that the next crop could suffer as workers stay away.  The Coronavirus helps keep demand away and helps keep workers from grinding facilities and chocolate manufacturers.  The removal of the lockdowns should improve demand in the short term.  Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.  Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.

Overnight News:  Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.265 million bags. 

Overnight News:

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2370, 2320, and 2310 July, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2460 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1870 and 1820 July.  Support is at 1890, 1870, and 1830 July, with resistance at 1940, 1970, and 1990 July.

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