MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Monday, July 06, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON            

General Comments   Cotton closed higher as bad growing conditions continued in West Texas and as farmers planted less than expected area to Cotton at 12 million acres.  Signs of an improving economy in the US and around the world really helped ideas of better Cotton demand as did reports of a lot of masks being made for use during the Coronavirus epidemic.  The world is starting to slowly recover from the Coronavirus scare and some stores are starting to open again after being closed for weeks.  However, economic improvement in the US was thrown into doubt as Coronavirus cases surged higher in states that had reopened.  The retail demand has been slow to develop as many consumers got hurt economically due to stay at home orders during the height of the pandemic and have little disposable funds to spend on clothes.  Demand will slowly improve but the industry should have plenty of supplies to work with in the short term.  The US weather situation is mixed, with good rains noted in the Southeast and good conditions in the Midsouth.  However, it has been very hot and dry in West Texas and crops there are suffering.

Overnight News:  The Delta will get isolated showers and Southeast will get scattered showers.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Texas will have isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The USDA average price is now 58.94 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 42,338 bales, from 40,640 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 307 contracts.       

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives.  Support is at 6110, 6030, and 6010 December, with resistance of 6370, 6510 and 6580 December.

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little higher.  Florida production is now estimated at less than 68 million boxes.  Support is coming from the continued effects from the Coronavirus that are keeping people at home and drinking Orange Juice.  Demand from grocery stores has remained strong in response to the increased consumer demand.  Inventories in cold storage remain solid so there will be FCOJ to meet the demand.  There is increasing concern about the food service demand not improving even with the partial opening of the states.  The weather in Florida is currently good for the crops.  Southern areas are cooler and have seen more frequent showers.  The tree condition is called good.  The Valencia harvest is almost over.  Brazil has been dry and irrigation has been used. 

Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 130.00 and 136.00 September.  Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 129.00, 132.00, and 135.00 September.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher and trends are turning up in both markets.  The lack of offer from Brazil has keyed the recent price action.  The Brazil harvest is active but shipping and collection have become very difficult due to the widespread outbreak of the Coronavirus there.  Ideas are that production will be very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees.  The strong production ideas are coming despite hot and dry weather seen in the country at flowering time.  Vietnam also had hot and dry weather at flowering time and production ideas there are less than original expectations of a bumper crop.  The demand from coffee shops and other food service operations is improving but is still at very low levels.  Consumers are still drinking Coffee at home and the return of the Coronavirus outbreak will keep things that way.  The logistics of moving Coffee from Central and South America remain difficult.  Shipping logistics have improved somewhat, but many are still having trouble getting the Coffee to ports to move to consumer nations. 

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.653 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 102.11 ct/lb.  Brazil will get dry conditions with near normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against ICE July futures contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,211 contracts.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 104.00 and 111.00 September.  Support is at 100.00, 97.00, and 95.00 September, and resistance is at 10.00, 106.00 and 108.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1240 and 1290 September.   Support is at 1190, 1160, and 1150 September, and resistance is at 1220, 1240, and 1250 September.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 06/30/2020

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers

    OI           Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe

  165,138       94,946        56,975        18,988       12,976        1,194

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  100.0%        57.5%        34.5%         11.5%          7.9%          0.7%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    158           55           40            13             7             8

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================

    8,827        53,959       13,974     5,398        6,050      15,546

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

    5.3%         32.7%          8.5%     3.3%         3.7%           9.4%

Number of Traders in Each Category

     17            34            15       14           12            15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

   Long       Short

=======================

   6,265      4,464

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   3.8%       2.7%

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York and London closed higher.  Ideas are that there is plenty of Sugar for the world market, but getting the Sugar moved is becoming increasingly difficult with the widespread Coronavirus outbreak in both Brazil and India.  Brazil mills are currently producing about 48% Sugar from the cane crush, from about 33% a year ago.  The overall crush rate is below year ago levels.  India is thought to have a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but getting it into Sugar and into export position has become extremely difficult due to Coronavirus lockdowns.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There are reduced flows from rivers from China as well. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near normal.  ICE said that 4,993 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1170, 1140, and 1120 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1240, and 1260 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 352.00, 344.00, and 338.00 October, and resistance is at 360.00, 366.00, and 370.00 October.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 06/30/2020

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers

    OI           Long         Short          Long         Short      Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe

  116,758       56,024        90,830        13,314        4,138        4,915

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  100.0%        48.0%        77.8%         11.4%          3.5%          4.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    118           38           43            12             3             6

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables

    Long          Short      Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================

   22,260         1,546        3,899     3,774        1,808       7,597

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

   19.1%          1.3%          3.3%     3.2%         1.5%          6.5%

Number of Traders in Each Category

     23             8            14       11           6             15

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

   Long       Short

=======================

   4,976      2,024

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   4.3%       1.7%

COCOA              

General Comments:  New York closed slightly lower and London closed lower for the week.  London has been the weaker market.  There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is not going away and could be making a comeback in the US.  Harvest is now over for the main crop in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest in the region.  However, the Midcrop could be less due to dry weather earlier in the season.  Arrivals are on a pace about the same as last year.  Ideas are that Southeast Asia also has good crops.

Overnight News:  Isolated to scattered showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.150 million bags.  ICE said that 18 delivery notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 436 contracts.    

Overnight News:

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2110 September.  Support is at 2090, 2060, and 2030 September, with resistance at 2210, 2250, and 2320 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1560 and 1460 September.  Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 September, with resistance at 1660, 1700, and 1720 September.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 06/30/2020

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

               Producer/Merchant/

                 Processor/User                       Swap Dealers

    OI           Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe

  299,026       173,895      208,379        39,220       11,399       10,750

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

  100.0%        58.2%        69.7%         13.1%          3.8%          3.6%

Number of Traders in Each Category

    139           47           45            14             5             8

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================

   18,615        13,300       15,353     3,124        2,786      33,500

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

    6.2%          4.4%          5.1%     1.0%         0.9%          11.2%

Number of Traders in Each Category

     19            16            15       12           10            24

Nonreportable Positions

=======================

   Long       Short

=======================

   4,568      3,558

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   1.5%       1.2%

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