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The Nemenoff Report 11/14/19

11/14/2019

Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 0’21 higher at 158’09, 10 Yr. Notes 0’08.0 higher at 129.004.5 and the 5 Yr. Note 0’04.25 higher at 117’18.00.Not much to report on this week other than Bond’s found some short term support at 155’08. Resistance is still the 159’28-160’08 area. The market is still vulnerable to large swings on news of trade concessions, the Pres. calling for negative rates by the Fed. I don’t believe this will happen. After 11 straight years of growth it would be normal to have a slowdown. We are not talking about a recession, just a slow down in the rate of employment. It would surprise me if there is another rate cut any time soon, barring a black swan event. That being said: I still have a negative bias and will be a seller at resistance.

Grains: Dec. Corn is currently1’2 higher at 376’4, Jan. Beans2’6 lower vat  912’4b and Dec. Wheat 0’2 lower at 509’2. Last weeks’ Crop Production Report showed more Corn than expected. Yields expected at 167 bushels per acre down 9.4 bpa from last year. Acreage was pegged at 81.8 million acres, up slightly from a year ago. To be honest those numbers make me a little friendly at the right price. I will be a buyer of Dec. Corn under 365’o.

Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle may have put in a top given yesterdays’ zsharply lower to limit down action. *I think they just ran out of buyers WE have to watch open interest numbers for confirmation over the next few sessions. I am still “nursing” a losing short LCZ position waiting to cover below 117.00

Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 9 cents higher at 17.01but down 54 cents from last week. I remain long.

S&P’s: Dec. S&P’s are 5.00 lower at 3090.25. Market traded above 3100.00 this week making a new record high. Momentum suggests new highs. Treat as a trding affair between 3063.00 and 3113.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the Dec. Euro 0.00095 at 1.10145, the Yen up 0.00110 at 0.02185. the Pound0.0001 lower at 1.2851 and the Dollar Index 0.035 at 98.265. Will be a buyer in the Euro and/or Pound on a sharp break.

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