The Nemenoff Report

9/12/2019
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 0’27 higher at 161’25., 10 Yr. Notes 0’12 higher at 130’09.0 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’06.0 higher at 19’04.5. The long Dec.19/short Dec. Eurodollar spread came into 44 points premium the Dec. 20 contract giving us the opportunity to liquidate the spread below the recommended 50 points. This spread narrowed 20 points last week indicating an overbought situation in Treasuries in general. This morning the ECB lowered rates by 5 basis points, half the expected 10 points. This caused treasuries to rally from recent lows. Also last week we had a disappointing jobs Report showing 30,000 new jobs well below the guesstimated 65,000. I am now changing my focus from the short side on rallies to the long side on breaks. I will buy the Dec. 5 yr. on breaks below 118’10.
Grains: Dec. Corn is currently 1’4 higher at 361’4, Nov. Beans 8’2 higher at 874’6 and Dec. Wheat 1’6 higher at 479’2. Crop report today at 11:00am. If you are long use a stop at 354’0 (basis Dec.) and or take profits above 380’0
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle finally have shown some life rallying nearly 300 points yesterday. As expected Sept FC held the 130.00 support level and technically looks like an upside breakout. I remain a buyer in Oct.LC below 98.25 with a stop at 95.25. If LCV trades above 100.25 raise your stop to break even.
Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 31 cents higher at 18.49. If you took partial profits above 19.00 look at breaks below 18.20 as an opportunity to replace them.
S&P’s: Sept. S&P’s are currently6.00 higher at 3008.25 well off the high made over night of 3020.00 after Pres. Trump extended the date from Oct.1 to Oct.15 for a 5-10% raise on tariffs against China. Treat as a trading affair between 2975.00 and 3015.00.
Currencies: I am on the sidelines.

Posted in

Tagged keywords...