The Nemenoff Report


Financials: Dec. Bonds are 1’03 higher at 160’22, 10 Yr. Notes 0’13.5 higher at 129’28.0 and the 5 Yr. Note 0’08.5 higher at 118’28.5. In the last week the 158’12 level was held on a weekly basis despite trading as low as 158’05. Yesterday the FMOC lowered rates for a third time this year. Fed Chairman Powell in his after meeting comments signaled that Fed action is going to take pause for the rest of 2019. He also intimated that the Fed will take action when “appropriate”. He also noted that inflation was below expectations, Global Risk still abounds mentioning Brexit and trade dispute between U.S. and China.  On a positive note Powell discussed a slowing of economies but that the U.S. economy should continue to grow albeit at a slower pace as well as noting the improved job market and glowing unemployment numbers. I still like the long side on breaks.

Grains: Dec. Corn is 1’0 lower at 389’6, Jan. Beans 3’0 higher at 933’4 and Dec. Wheat 2’0 lower at 597’2. My upside expectations have been met and I am on the side lines. I suspect upcoming Crop Reports will show higher yields than the trade expects. Stay tuned.

Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle continued their upward momentum putting my short Dec. LC position at quite a loss. I will cover on any significant break. Cash Cattle are currently 110-111.00, well below futures prices.

Silver: Dec. Silver is currently 14 cents higher at 18.01 and up nearly 40 cents for the week. Stay long.

S&P’s: Dec. S&P’s are currently 8.50 lower at 3039.00. Good earnings and lower rates have pushed this market to new all time highs of 3052.00. Think about out of the money puts. Treat the futures as a trading affair. Support is currently 3017.00

Currencies: The Dec. Euro is currently 34.5 higher at 1.11940, the Yen 67 higher at n0.92680, the Pound 82 higher at 1.2990 and the Dollar Index (DI) 0.354 lower at 97.085. The closer we get to a soft Brexit the stronger the Pound gets vs. the Dollar. The DI is now 200 points below highs made over the 6 weeks. The pound looks poised to rally to the 1.3500 level, where I will go short.

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