AGMASTER

7-1-20

William D. Moore at the Chicago Board of Trade

JULY CORN

 From out of nowhere, a wildly bullish acreage report was dropped on the mkt today

By the USDA – reducing corn acres from Mar 1 by a whopping 5 million acres – from 97 MA

To 92 MA! This was easily the biggest Mar-June reduction in reporting history! Its especially

Stunning given the green-house type weather conditions we’ve had this Spring! And the

Bullish # stood in stark contrast to the quarterly stocks at  5.224 BB -well over the expected

4.990! The mkt apparently figured the heavy stocks were already dialed in but certainly not

“surprise acres”! They may have been the result of Covid fears & certainly tighten up S/D!

JULY BEANS

The bean acres were also friendly – 83.8 (exp – 84.7) – but were not the bullish

shocker  that corn was! Nonetheless, they rode the tide for double-digit gains to their highest

close since late March! Their Quarterly Stocks were more in line with expectations –

1.386 (exp-1.381)! The Beans have clearly been the upside leader this Spring – which is very

Surprising considering all the saber-rattling going between US/China over the Covid Blame

Game & the Hong Kong protests! Yet Phase 1 is still intact & China is buying!  Support is

Also being drawn from the Macro Mkts – the DJI was up over 3600 points for the 2nd Qtr

& crude oil was up $10.  And the mkt is already cheap at 10 yr lows! Finally there is no real

“weather premium” currently in the price structure! The technicals (above) are positive!

JULY WHEAT

July Wht along with July Beans rode the Corn Acreage Shocker delivered by the

USDA Tuesday – registering double digit gains & following thru on Wed! All Wht acres came in

Neutral at 44.25 MA (exp – 44.70) – albeit the lowest acreage # in over 100 years! However,

Quarterly Stocks were bearish at 1.044 BB (exp- 979)! Once again, the mkt ignored the stocks

#’s in deference to the acreage #’s!  Also, hotter, drier weather is forecast for the first two

Weeks of July – with no real “weather premium” in the price structure! Finally, harvest

Pressure for the winter wheat crop (41% in) has run its course!  

The downside seems to be exhausted in corn, beans & wheat as the mkt awaits

July weather forecasts!  A large short open interest &  10 year lows will be supportive for any

Up – should the weather dictate!

AUG CAT

Aug Cat’s very promising $20  Spring Rally (81-104) has stalled out

Morphing into a two month congestion area (94-102)! Seasonal beef weakness & a slow-down

In the re-opening of the economy caused by the Covid resurgence are the culprits! What

Once was a big discount to cash has turned into a premium! The mkt needs the economy to

Continue re-opening to resume its up!

AUG HOGS

Just what the Pork Complex DIDN’T need was last weeks bearish Pig Crop Report –

Forecasting heavy supplies for the remainder of the year! And since the report, the Aug Hog

Contract has had trouble filling the downside gap! And that needs to be done before the mkt

Can stabilize! Meanwhile, the resurgence of Covid in California, Arizona, Texas & Florida

Has derailed their re-opening plans – casting a pall over meat & pork demand!

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