MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Thursday, March 26, 2020

 

 

 

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 

 

 

 

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 26

For the week ended Mar 19 in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA

wk’s net chg             total

in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales

this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr

wheat          740.0    366.4   24710.0   23618.9   5208.3    965.8

hrw          370.3    296.9    9250.2    8369.7   1928.3    440.2

srw           -4.0     45.0    2333.7    3084.9    289.5    162.4

hrs          167.9      4.5    7272.6    6520.9   1640.4    176.2

white        121.8      0.0    4940.8    5162.4   1119.7     36.0

durum         84.0     20.0     912.6     481.1    230.4    151.0

corn          1814.3     82.9   30832.0   42658.1  13783.9   1740.7

soybeans       904.3      0.5   35904.0   41604.8   4612.9    414.9

soymeal        251.2     16.0    8661.7    9130.2   3051.2    116.8

soyoil          55.9      0.0     832.0     548.0    278.9      2.5

upland cotto   277.1    120.1   15144.9   12565.5   6918.4   1895.1

pima cotton     18.3      0.0     539.9     615.1    235.1     35.3

sorghum        107.6      0.0    2472.6     947.2   1286.6     33.0

barley           0.0      0.0      49.1      59.4     11.3     31.0

rice            73.0      0.0    2889.0    2691.3    793.6      0.0

 

DJ Coronavirus Containment Measures Disrupting Global Grain Trade, IGC Says

By Will Horner and Joe Wallace

Measures to halt the spread of coronavirus are disrupting the movement of grains and other vital food-stuffs, just as demand for rice and wheat-based products was surging, the International Grains Council said Thursday.

The group also raised its forecast for global grain production, but noted that its estimates were tentative until the full effect of the pandemic was known.

In its monthly report, the IGC upped its forecast for grain production in the 2019-20 season by 3 million metric tons to 2.175 billion tons. That was higher than the 2.139 billion tons produced in 2018-19.

The intergovernmental body also cuts its forecast for grain demand by 1 million tons to 2.192 billion tons. This compares with demand of 2.163 billion tons in 2018-19.

“Although import buying of some commodities has accelerated in recent weeks, logistical challenges are being reported as movement constraints and quarantine measures become widespread,” the IGC said.

The IGC also issued its first set of projections for supply and demand in the 2020-2021 season in which it predicts a grain output of 2.223 billion tons and consumption of 2.226 billion tons, meaning a fourth consecutive year that the global grain market would be in deficit.

 

WHEAT: 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were higher yesterday with fund buying in Chicago RW markets the main feature.  The Coronavirus and stay at home orders in many states have created a rush of buying of Wheat products and have caught the mills short bought.  They have been very active in buying Wheat in domestic cash markets, especially in the Great Plains, and basis levels have moved sharply higher.  There was a lot of bullish demand news for the market to absorb.  There is also the chance for production losses in areas near the Black Sea from freezing temperatures on ground with no snow cover.  It remains dry in parts of Russia.  No one is talking about losses in Russia yet, but the situation should be monitored as losses will become very possible unless it starts to rain soon.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get showers and rains on Friday and Saturday.  Temperatures should be variable.  Northern areas should see light precipitation in southern areas the rest of the week and a dry weekend.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives.  Support is at 568, 562, and 547 May, with resistance at 591, 598, and 604 May.  Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives.  Support is at 491, 479, and 476 May, with resistance at 512, 518, and 5024 May.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 548 and 563 May.  Support is at 535, 528, and 519 May, and resistance is at 545, 550, and 558 May.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was higher on strong domestic demand and improving export demand ideas.  Vietnam said it was suspending exports and India might have to do the same thing due to the Coronavirus.  India is traditionally the low priced seller into the world market so their potential withdrawal could mean a big rally is coming.  The domestic situation remains tight and sales to western countries have been generally good although not so strong in recent weeks.  Some producers are selling the next crop and some significant hedge selling has been seen in new crop months in futures.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.  It has been weaker lately due to the higher prices.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get showers and storms.  Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1373 and 1406 May.  Support is at 1339, 1316, and 1306 May, with resistance at 1368, 1380, and 1398 May.

 

 

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments:  Corn closed higher on US Dollar weakness and somewhat higher Crude Oil prices.  The US stock market was sharply higher.  Prices for Crude Oil and also gasoline and heating oil are at extremely low levels right now.  The Saudis are using the cheaper price to punish Russia for balking at cutting production a few weeks ago but also to eliminate competition from shale oil producers in the US and Canada as well as bio fuels producers around the world.  The Saudi moves have helped to destroy the Corn market here in the US.  It has turned into a disastrous situation and one for which the US government has no real answers to give Corn producers here.

Overnight News: 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 345, 338, and 332 May, and resistance is at 353, 357, and 364 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 258, 252, and 248 March, and resistance is at 274, 278, and 282 May.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans closed mixed and Soybean Oil closed higher.  Soybean Meal closed lower.  Little or no ethanol production means little or no production of DDG as well, so a potential competitor to Soybean Meal in domestic and world markets has been effectively removed.  Logistical problems caused by the Caronavirus in South America also played a major roll in the rally.  Argentina and Brazil closed borders to traffic last week.  Exports are not supposed to be affected, but there are signs that transportation inside the countries has become very difficult.  For example, one port town in Argentina has closed itself off to all port traffic including trucks bringing Soybeans and products to the port.  The US is still selling and shipping normally and has gained the upper hand for any loads China or anyone else might need to buy.  Chinese Soybean Meal users have indicated that the market is very short the product right now and that prices are increasing.  The move comes even with the US Dollar index at extremely high levels against major world currencies and against the Real and Peso.  The US is still the best and most reliable shipper and is expected to capture a lot of business going forward.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 916 and 937 May.  Support is at 872, 867, and 855 May, and resistance is at 897, 900, and 904 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 3125.00 and 202.00 May.   Support is at 314.00, 311.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 327.00, 336.00, and 337.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2570, 2530, and 2470 May, with resistance at 2700, 2760, and 2830 May.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was a little lower.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts.  Palm Oil was lower on speculative profit taking and on currency considerations.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 433.00 May.  Support is at 453.00, 451.00, and 444.00 May, with resistance at 470.00, 473.00, and 475.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2600 and 2810 June.  Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2190 June, with resistance at 2480, 2520, and 2530 June.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.

 

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

March

+56 May

+160 May

+70 May

+60 May

+12 May

N/A

April

+55 May

+65 May

+58 May

May

+55 May

+70 May

+60 May

 

 

 

 

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 25

WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices

from ICE Futures.

Source:  ICE Futures

Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          435.50    -32.00    May 2020   unchanged

Basis: Thunder Bay   475.60     10.00    May 2020     dn 1.90

Basis: Vancouver     490.60     25.00    May 2020     dn 1.90

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 26

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           592.50       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

May           590.00     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jun           577.50       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   562.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   562.50     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           595.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

May           592.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Jun           580.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep   565.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   565.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           600.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           570.00       0.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           2,440.00   -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Apr           180.00     -02.00      Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.3300)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 26

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 450,710 lots, or 20.41 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

May-20  4,491  4,625  4,476  4,621   4,448   4,576  128  363,683   118,993

Jul-20  4,355  4,420  4,355  4,400   4,341   4,393   52       66       103

Sep-20  4,290  4,400  4,252  4,329   4,275   4,335   60   82,314    45,992

Nov-20  4,107  4,183  4,104  4,111   4,131   4,137    6       61       313

Jan-21  4,115  4,164  4,090  4,092   4,124   4,135   11    4,577    10,831

Mar-21  4,227  4,227  4,107  4,169   4,189   4,173  -16        9        21

Corn

Turnover: 503,598 lots, or 10.14 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

May-20  1,967  1,974  1,959  1,959   1,961   1,965    4   85,353   295,390

Jul-20  1,981  2,005  1,981  1,990   1,992   1,996    4   27,754    60,971

Sep-20  2,024  2,033  2,018  2,018   2,020   2,023    3  376,209   659,097

Nov-20  2,045  2,051  2,036  2,037   2,041   2,042    1    2,999     6,274

Jan-21  2,069  2,070  2,055  2,055   2,060   2,062    2    9,552    41,848

Mar-21  2,077  2,082  2,068  2,068   2,076   2,075   -1    1,731       938

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,043,597 lots, or 59.55 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

Settle                           Interest

May-20  2,924  2,932  2,882  2,895   2,954   2,909  -45    423,092    589,319

Jul-20  2,917  2,930  2,869  2,879   2,958   2,906  -52     45,376     82,732

Aug-20  2,950  2,950  2,872  2,872   2,963   2,915  -48     43,897      5,987

Sep-20  2,930  2,938  2,881  2,892   2,956   2,916  -40  1,430,103  1,610,546

Nov-20  2,941  2,941  2,876  2,885   2,953   2,914  -39     22,149      5,887

Dec-20  2,924  2,943  2,906  2,906   2,942   2,923  -19        253        325

Jan-21  2,900  2,917  2,868  2,876   2,919   2,901  -18     78,594    127,410

Mar-21  2,852  2,880  2,852  2,854   2,895   2,871  -24        133        404

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,343,777 lots, or 64.75 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                         Interest

Apr-20  –          –      –  4,740   4,740   4,740     0        0         0

May-20  4,880  4,898  4,716  4,736   4,816   4,822     6  976,398   188,859

Jun-20  4,892  4,920  4,802  4,816   4,868   4,868     0       34        14

Jul-20  4,928  4,928  4,928  4,928   4,936   4,928    -8        2       309

Aug-20  4,898  4,898  4,898  4,898   5,044   4,898  -146        1         3

Sep-20  4,860  4,878  4,704  4,716   4,812   4,804    -8  363,003   201,631

Oct-20  4,902  4,902  4,736  4,736   4,822   4,798   -24       10         8

Nov-20  –          –      –  4,830   4,830   4,830     0        0         6

Dec-20  4,960  4,960  4,874  4,874   4,878   4,916    38        2       157

Jan-21  4,900  4,942  4,806  4,814   4,846   4,878    32    4,327    19,355

Feb-21  –          –      –  4,842   4,842   4,842     0        0         3

Mar-21  –          –      –  4,954   4,954   4,954     0        0         2

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 707,310 lots, or 39.30 billion yuan

Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

Settle                        Interest

May-20  5,564  5,576  5,424  5,452   5,536   5,512  -24  252,908   186,060

Jul-20  –          –      –  5,598   5,598   5,598    0        0       317

Aug-20  –          –      –  5,588   5,612   5,588  -24        0         2

Sep-20  5,640  5,646  5,492  5,516   5,608   5,578  -30  448,658   368,647

Nov-20  5,674  5,680  5,628  5,638   5,676   5,654  -22       21       685

Dec-20  5,704  5,704  5,680  5,680   5,716   5,696  -20        4        22

Jan-21  5,716  5,722  5,594  5,614   5,696   5,672  -24    5,719    25,403

Mar-21  –          –      –  5,670   5,692   5,670  -22        0         3

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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