MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Friday, July 31, 2020

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 31

Source: CME Group  

               Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL   August     Aug. 03, 2020               24   Jun 26, 2020

SOYBEAN OIL    August     Aug. 03, 2020              412   Jul 23, 2020

WHEAT        

General Comments:   Winter Wheat markets were lower and all three markets are looking for direction right now.  Spring Wheat here is developing under good growing conditions.  Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected.  Soft Red Winter yields are high.  The Winter Wheat markets are in trading ranges.  Spring Wheat markets show mixed trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada.  It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now.  It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected.  Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions.  Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains.  About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 519, 517, and 494 September, with resistance at 540, 544, and 552 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 433, 431, and 424 September, with resistance at 455, 464, and 468 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 506, 500, and 498 September, and resistance is at 520, 528, and 531 September.

RICE

General Comments  Rice was higher after trading sharply higher on the Gulf weather and news that China had bought 20 tons of US Rice.  The amount bought is very small but news that China would buy US Rice was what was important.  Harvest has started near the Gulf Coast and producers got a chance to sell at higher levels yesterday.  New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year.  The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good.  The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice.  There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers.  The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri.  Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1148, 1135, and 1120 September, with resistance at 1170, 1176, and 1183 September.

CORN AND OATS                    

General Comments  Corn was a little higher as news of very strong Chinese demand met ideas of very good and improving growing conditions in the Midwest.  USDA said yesterday morning that China bought over 1.9 million tons of US Corn.  It should turn cooler and wetter for parts of this week.  Eastern areas are likely to see the rains while the west misses out.  Trends are down in Corn.  There have been problems with demand.  Meats processors are back and are close to capacity.  Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable or falling.  Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol.  US prices are still high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less. 

Overnight News:  Mexico bought 114,300 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 314, 311, and 299 September.  Support is at 314, 307, and 303 September, and resistance is at 325, 330, and 336 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 275, 270, and 268 September, and resistance is at 284, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS 

General Comments:  Soybeans were higher on new reports of Chinese demand and despite very good crop condition ratings from USDA and from private sources.  The ratings imply that yields for Corn and Soybeans will be very high.  USDA reported that China bought over 1.9 million tons of Soybeans in the weekly sales report.  China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal.  Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries.  China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade.  Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies.  The US weather calls for drier weather to the west and showers to the east.

Overnight News:  Philippines bought 222,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 884 and 866 August.  Support is at 884, 882, and 871 August, and resistance is at 902, 911, and 917 August.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.   Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 281.00 August, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 August.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2890 August, with resistance at 3020, 3030, and 3050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Palm Oil was closed.  Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production.  Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand.  Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic.  Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels.  Canola was a little lower on speculative and producer selling. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies.  The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain. 

Overnight News:    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.  Support is at 488.00, 485.00, and 482.00 November, with resistance at 493.00, 496.00, and 499.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2430 and 1960 October.  Support is at 2560, 2490, and 2420 October, with resistance at 2710, 2790, and 2800 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north.  Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

July

+48 Sep

+145 Sep

+60 Sep

+69 Aug

N/A

N/A

August

+52 Sep

+60 Sep

+71 Aug

September

+55 Sep

+60 Sep

+72 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 29

WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          471.50    -16.10    Nov 2020     dn 1.10

Basis: Thunder Bay   507.20     16.00    Nov 2020     up 3.60

Basis: Vancouver     516.20     25.00    Nov 2020     up 3.60

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

*Quote for previous day 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 30

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           692.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          682.50     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   647.50     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar   637.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           695.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

Sept          685.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Oct/Nov/Dec   650.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jan/Feb/Mar   640.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           665.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           580.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug          2,780.00    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Aug           180.00     +03.00      Unquoted   –        – 

($1=MYR4.2390)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 31

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 328,207 lots, or 15.42 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Sep-20  4,708  4,813  4,692  4,761   4,701   4,759   58  280,587   136,495

Nov-20  4,341  4,376  4,320  4,338   4,331   4,340    9      790     2,228

Jan-21  4,312  4,360  4,301  4,326   4,320   4,329    9   44,600    60,986

Mar-21  4,328  4,336  4,301  4,314   4,318   4,325    7      176       225

May-21  4,337  4,373  4,318  4,334   4,334   4,339    5    1,651     4,412

Jul-21  4,355  4,356  4,325  4,331   4,327   4,342   15      403       449

Corn

Turnover: 1,429,313 lots, or 32.95 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Sep-20  2,321  2,366  2,311  2,323   2,308   2,334   26  813,240   390,795

Nov-20  2,257  2,281  2,249  2,257   2,256   2,267   11   22,578    55,074

Jan-21  2,258  2,277  2,239  2,248   2,251   2,258    7  467,094   824,783

Mar-21  2,261  2,278  2,243  2,252   2,252   2,261    9    8,467     5,163

May-21  2,289  2,308  2,271  2,280   2,284   2,290    6   96,843   268,338

Jul-21  2,320  2,330  2,291  2,299   2,301   2,314   13   21,091    17,249

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,245,344 lots, or 36.13 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Aug-20  3,000  3,000  2,879  2,899   2,916   2,913   -3       61      1,000

Sep-20  2,901  2,923  2,882  2,920   2,914   2,909   -5  636,187    744,798

Nov-20  2,924  2,939  2,899  2,937   2,930   2,924   -6   41,125     54,251

Dec-20  2,931  2,947  2,912  2,940   2,953   2,935  -18   17,669      5,526

Jan-21  2,924  2,942  2,905  2,937   2,930   2,927   -3  447,741  1,134,003

Mar-21  2,758  2,779  2,752  2,777   2,764   2,766    2    1,446      4,488

May-21  2,715  2,734  2,711  2,731   2,717   2,723    6  100,889    496,127

Jul-21  2,735  2,754  2,735  2,754   2,732   2,749   17      226        444

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,309,959 lots, or 73.49 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Aug-20  5,940  5,940  5,620  5,622   5,904   5,748  -156          5         0

Sep-20  5,700  5,706  5,532  5,680   5,662   5,642   -20  1,086,031   253,853

Oct-20  5,580  5,598  5,412  5,578   5,546   5,540    -6     13,666     7,057

Nov-20  5,530  5,610  5,382  5,520   5,486   5,494     8      9,206     3,141

Dec-20  5,524  5,524  5,378  5,490   5,472   5,478     6      5,948     1,626

Jan-21  5,468  5,490  5,358  5,474   5,436   5,440     4    192,120   165,906

Feb-21  5,402  5,402  5,336  5,336   5,456   5,368   -88          4       120

Mar-21  –          –      –  5,428   5,428   5,428     0          0        17

Apr-21  –          –      –  5,418   5,416   5,418     2          0       151

May-21  5,444  5,456  5,336  5,444   5,420   5,412    -8      2,977    12,445

Jun-21  5,416  5,420  5,416  5,420   5,402   5,418    16          2         2

Jul-21  –          –      –  5,388   5,374   5,388    14          0         1

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 688,093 lots, or 42.94 billion yuan

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Aug-20  6,068  6,100  6,068  6,100   6,082   6,086    4        4         1

Sep-20  6,280  6,304  6,170  6,262   6,220   6,252   32  393,321   221,461

Nov-20  6,318  6,318  6,176  6,272   6,226   6,266   40    7,242     9,519

Dec-20  6,272  6,312  6,166  6,264   6,228   6,260   32    3,911     2,412

Jan-21  6,252  6,286  6,130  6,224   6,196   6,226   30  270,578   364,183

Mar-21  6,190  6,214  6,070  6,166   6,138   6,166   28    3,416       470

May-21  6,160  6,176  6,056  6,132   6,126   6,120   -6    9,620    37,444

Jul-21  6,104  6,104  6,104  6,104   6,100   6,104    4        1         2  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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