The Nemenoff Report
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 0’04 lower at158’21,10 Yr. Notes0’01 higher at129’14.5 and 5 Yr. Notes 0’01.00 higher at 119’00.75. Over the last 2 weeks there have been many trading opportunities on my favored (for the mean time) short side of the market. I had recommended going short the Dec. Bonds between 159’28 and 160’08 with a 15 point buy stop. If you sold at the low side of the range you were probably stopped out, if you were short from the high end you were rewarded with a 1’00-2’00 profit. These markets were highly volatile as the market went from risk on (Bonds lower, equities higher) to risk off (buy Bonds, sell equities) modes several times in the 2 week period as the market reacted to the vagaries of the on again off again China trade deal. WE will now have to see if there is any kind of resolution before the Pres. Trump proposed additional tariffs to be instituted Dec.15th. Treat Mar. Bonds as a trading affair between 155’20 and 161’05. Look for major support in the Mar. 5 Yr. Note in the 117’22 area +/- 6 ticks
Grains: Mar. Corn is currently 0’6 lower at 377’6, Jan. Beans 1’6 higher at 894’6 and Mar. Wheat 1’6 higher at 529’2. Since my last “Report” (11/21/2019) Corn is about unchanged, Beans 13’0 lower and Wheat11’0 higher. AS my readers will note: I have not been friendly to these markets. That being said, I feel any further breaks will put the Mar. Corn at prices that will reflect some value to Cattle feeders and processors (Ethanol, corn fructose). I will be a buyer of Mar. Corn between 565’0 and 575’0.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle fell sharply yesterday indicating a possible top to these markets. I’m still holding a losing short position in Dec. Cattle and intend to cover below 117.00. I will be a seller in April LC above 128.75.
Silver: Mar. Silver is currently unchanged at 16.92 and about 27 cents lower since my last letter. This is despite a weakening Dollar which runs counter to conventional wisdom. I am still long.
S&P’s: Dec. S&P’s are currently 9.00 higher at 3120.00. Of note: the market is close to a weekly key reversal (a new contract high and a close below the previous weeks low). A close below 3116.50 will give us confirmation. Sell rallies above 3124.00 and be willing to short position this market if on Friday the :15 close is below 3116.00.
Currencies: As of this wring the Dec. Euro is 17.5 higher at 1.1100, the Yen .002.5 lower at 0.9189.0, the Pound 32 higher at 1.3134 and the Do9llar Index 0.14.7 lower 97.455. The Euro is a few ticks high than my last letter, the Pound up 170 points and the Dollar Index down 25 point. I am still a buyer in the Pound on breaks and a seller of the Dollar on rallies. Next week we will be covering Mar. contracts.